HarrisDemocratic49.6%4,450TrumpRepublican48.0%4,311OtherAll other candidates1.3%120
D+1.5- Lead
- 139
- Total
- 8,977
- vs nation
- D+3.0
- Turnout
- 44.4%
Akashiccounty
Cibola County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 44.4% of 20,293 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic53.3%4,745TrumpRepublican44.6%3,975JorgensenLibertarian1.1%99
D+8.6- Lead
- 770
- Total
- 8,903
- vs nation
- D+4.2
- Turnout
- 44.9%
ClintonDemocratic46.4%3,741TrumpRepublican39.6%3,195JohnsonLibertarian12.0%970
D+6.8- Lead
- 546
- Total
- 8,063
- vs nation
- D+4.7
- Turnout
- 41.9%
ObamaDemocratic60.2%4,961RomneyRepublican36.4%2,998GRAYLibertarian3.2%261
D+23.8- Lead
- 1,963
- Total
- 8,243
- vs nation
- D+20.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic64.1%5,827McCainRepublican34.4%3,131OtherAll other candidates1.5%139
D+29.6- Lead
- 2,696
- Total
- 9,097
- vs nation
- D+22.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic52.3%3,913BushRepublican46.4%3,477OtherAll other candidates1.3%97
D+5.8- Lead
- 436
- Total
- 7,487
- vs nation
- D+8.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic58.2%4,127BushRepublican38.8%2,752NaderGreen2.3%164
D+19.4- Lead
- 1,375
- Total
- 7,088
- vs nation
- D+18.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic58.6%4,030DoleRepublican32.6%2,245PerotReform7.1%488
D+25.9- Lead
- 1,785
- Total
- 6,880
- vs nation
- D+17.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+1.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 26,8452024 5-year
- Median household income
- $50,7592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 19.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 32.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.6 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+6.5 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Guadalupe County, NM · twin score 93.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 44.4%9,017 participants ÷ 20,293 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +11.2 ptsPersistently low turnout
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 33.3%–35.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,134 | 19,435 | 41.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 7,171 | 20,023 | 35.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 8,945 | 19,921 | 44.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,892 | 20,421 | 33.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 9,017 | 20,293 | 44.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
55 precincts · 8,857 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000005000005 | 365 | 222 | 12 | 599 | 60.9% | 37.1% | D+23.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000011000011 | 264 | 312 | 7 | 583 | 45.3% | 53.5% | R+8.2 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 465 | 60 | 12 | 537 | 86.6% | 11.2% | D+75.4 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 230 | 263 | 6 | 499 | 46.1% | 52.7% | R+6.6 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 186 | 258 | 0 | 444 | 41.9% | 58.1% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 148 | 280 | 7 | 435 | 34.0% | 64.4% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 112 | 299 | 0 | 411 | 27.3% | 72.7% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 178 | 227 | 0 | 405 | 44.0% | 56.0% | R+12.1 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 168 | 214 | 9 | 391 | 43.0% | 54.7% | R+11.8 |
| Precinct -000020000020 | 302 | 72 | 9 | 383 | 78.9% | 18.8% | D+60.1 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 95 | 268 | 0 | 363 | 26.2% | 73.8% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct -000026000026 | 216 | 109 | 19 | 344 | 62.8% | 31.7% | D+31.1 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 79 | 242 | 0 | 321 | 24.6% | 75.4% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 110 | 204 | 0 | 314 | 35.0% | 65.0% | R+29.9 |
| Precinct -000019000019 | 84 | 194 | 8 | 286 | 29.4% | 67.8% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 131 | 144 | 0 | 275 | 47.6% | 52.4% | R+4.7 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 220 | 46 | 7 | 273 | 80.6% | 16.8% | D+63.7 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 197 | 35 | 0 | 232 | 84.9% | 15.1% | D+69.8 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 84 | 130 | 0 | 214 | 39.3% | 60.7% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 92 | 101 | 0 | 193 | 47.7% | 52.3% | R+4.7 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 135 | 38 | 0 | 173 | 78.0% | 22.0% | D+56.1 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 140 | 30 | 0 | 170 | 82.4% | 17.6% | D+64.7 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 83 | 84 | 0 | 167 | 49.7% | 50.3% | R+0.6 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 52 | 113 | 0 | 165 | 31.5% | 68.5% | R+37.0 |
| Precinct -000030000030 | 106 | 57 | 0 | 163 | 65.0% | 35.0% | D+30.1 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 12 | 129 | 0 | 141 | 8.5% | 91.5% | R+83.0 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 103 | 33 | 0 | 136 | 75.7% | 24.3% | D+51.5 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 34 | 95 | 0 | 129 | 26.4% | 73.6% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 28 | 38 | 0 | 66 | 42.4% | 57.6% | R+15.2 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 31 | 14 | 0 | 45 | 68.9% | 31.1% | D+37.8 |
| Cibola County Precinct 135_350061 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1035_3500610 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1135_3500611 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1235_3500612 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1335_3500613 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1435_3500614 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1535_3500615 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1635_3500616 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1735_3500617 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1835_3500618 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 1935_3500619 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 235_350062 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 2035_3500620 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 2135_3500621 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 2235_3500622 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 2335_3500623 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 2435_3500624 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 2535_3500625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 335_350063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 435_350064 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 535_350065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 635_350066 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 735_350067 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 835_350068 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cibola County Precinct 935_350069 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1984–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1984 | −6.5% |
| 1988 | +13.3% |
| 1992 | +20.4% |
| 1996 | +25.9% |
| 2000 | +19.4% |
| 2004 | +5.8% |
| 2008 | +29.6% |
| 2012 | +23.8% |
| 2016 | +6.8% |
| 2020 | +8.6% |
| 2024 | +1.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 15 Senate · 11 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+22.9
Presidential vote · 2024D+1.5
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 21 points more Democratic.
16,306 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+129 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,608 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $37,041 in average income, against $45,937 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+16.9 on average — 15 points more Democratic-leaning than Cibola County, NM itself (D+1.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bernalillo County, NM135D+21.0
- McKinley County, NM90D+24.5
- Valencia County, NM31R+16.4
- Sandoval County, NM20D+5.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bernalillo County, NM158
- McKinley County, NM47
- Valencia County, NM37
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −13 |
| 2012 | −260 |
| 2013 | −207 |
| 2014 | −429 |
| 2015 | −213 |
| 2016 | −56 |
| 2017 | −223 |
| 2018 | −188 |
| 2019 | −143 |
| 2021 | +176 |
| 2022 | −198 |
| 2023 | +26 |
| 2024 | −9 |
| 2025 | +129 |
Cibola County's electorate, shaped by a majority-Native American and Hispanic population centered around Grants and Acoma Pueblo, has shifted from reliably Democratic to one of the closer rural contests in the state over the past two cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.6 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 6.5 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.5 points.
A population of 26,845, a 20% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,759 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Guadalupe County and Rio Arriba County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Guadalupe County
New Mexico
93.7twin score
elasticity% White2000–2008 trajectory≠ 12-yr trend
Rio Arriba County
New Mexico
93.4twin score
% Whiteelasticity2000–2008 trajectory≠ % Latino
Dimmit County
Texas
91.6twin score
elasticity% White2008–2024 trajectory≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Cibola County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35006/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Cibola County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Cibola County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Cibola County, New Mexico voted Democratic by 1.5 points (D+1.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 8,977 votes cast, 4,450 went Democratic and 4,311 went Republican.
When did Cibola County, New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Cibola County, New Mexico voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Cibola County, New Mexico?
Cibola County, New Mexico has a population of 26,845 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Cibola County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Cibola County, New Mexico is $50,759 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Cibola County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Cibola County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 1 went Republican.