- Lead
- 15,240
- Total
- 102,431
- vs nation
- R+13.4
- Turnout
- 62.7%
Niagara County, NY
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 62.7% of 165,241 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 10,039
- Total
- 104,123
- vs nation
- R+14.1
- Turnout
- 63.4%
- Lead
- 16,402
- Total
- 92,402
- vs nation
- R+19.8
- Turnout
- 55.8%
- Lead
- 746
- Total
- 89,013
- vs nation
- R+3.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 955
- Total
- 95,272
- vs nation
- R+6.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 491
- Total
- 96,580
- vs nation
- D+3.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,829
- Total
- 93,270
- vs nation
- D+6.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 12,765
- Total
- 89,444
- vs nation
- D+5.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+14.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 210,7212024 5-year
- Median household income
- $69,6332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.0 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lake County, OH · twin score 92.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 62.7%103,611 participants ÷ 165,241 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 45.5%–48.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 93,059 | 166,672 | 55.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 74,417 | 166,088 | 44.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 104,698 | 165,128 | 63.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 77,131 | 166,977 | 46.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 103,611 | 165,241 | 62.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
125 precincts · 102,918 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0500004360630500004 | 635 | 942 | 13 | 1,590 | 39.9% | 59.2% | R+19.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0300003360630300003 | 574 | 925 | 18 | 1,517 | 37.8% | 61.0% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct 0100001360630100001 | 507 | 998 | 7 | 1,512 | 33.5% | 66.0% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct 1200003360631200003 | 434 | 1,017 | 10 | 1,461 | 29.7% | 69.6% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct 0600001360630600001 | 466 | 930 | 9 | 1,405 | 33.2% | 66.2% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct 0500001360630500001 | 536 | 842 | 15 | 1,393 | 38.5% | 60.4% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct 1400007360631400007 | 520 | 858 | 9 | 1,387 | 37.5% | 61.9% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct 1100001360631100001 | 527 | 822 | 20 | 1,369 | 38.5% | 60.0% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct 0300002360630300002 | 610 | 742 | 16 | 1,368 | 44.6% | 54.2% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct 1000002360631000002 | 452 | 889 | 18 | 1,359 | 33.3% | 65.4% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct 1300001360631300001 | 371 | 971 | 17 | 1,359 | 27.3% | 71.4% | R+44.2 |
| Precinct 0901005360630901005 | 600 | 729 | 18 | 1,347 | 44.5% | 54.1% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct 0200001360630200001 | 325 | 992 | 11 | 1,328 | 24.5% | 74.7% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct 0300004360630300004 | 457 | 836 | 11 | 1,304 | 35.0% | 64.1% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct 0901001360630901001 | 584 | 703 | 14 | 1,301 | 44.9% | 54.0% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct 0901004360630901004 | 599 | 687 | 8 | 1,294 | 46.3% | 53.1% | R+6.8 |
| Precinct 0300006360630300006 | 569 | 710 | 10 | 1,289 | 44.1% | 55.1% | R+10.9 |
| Precinct 1000001360631000001 | 426 | 832 | 3 | 1,261 | 33.8% | 66.0% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct 1100002360631100002 | 423 | 825 | 13 | 1,261 | 33.5% | 65.4% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct 0300007360630300007 | 577 | 663 | 6 | 1,246 | 46.3% | 53.2% | R+6.9 |
| Precinct 0500011360630500011 | 555 | 653 | 6 | 1,214 | 45.7% | 53.8% | R+8.1 |
| Precinct 0405002360630405002 | 607 | 593 | 10 | 1,210 | 50.2% | 49.0% | D+1.2 |
| Precinct 0903002360630903002 | 553 | 630 | 11 | 1,194 | 46.3% | 52.8% | R+6.4 |
| Precinct 0402002360630402002 | 602 | 577 | 7 | 1,186 | 50.8% | 48.7% | D+2.1 |
| Precinct 0500007360630500007 | 548 | 635 | 3 | 1,186 | 46.2% | 53.5% | R+7.3 |
| Precinct 0600002360630600002 | 356 | 800 | 11 | 1,167 | 30.5% | 68.6% | R+38.0 |
| Precinct 0500005360630500005 | 480 | 680 | 5 | 1,165 | 41.2% | 58.4% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct 0903003360630903003 | 523 | 630 | 5 | 1,158 | 45.2% | 54.4% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct 0803006360630803006 | 524 | 580 | 7 | 1,111 | 47.2% | 52.2% | R+5.0 |
| Precinct 0901003360630901003 | 490 | 594 | 11 | 1,095 | 44.7% | 54.2% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct 0700004360630700004 | 416 | 668 | 9 | 1,093 | 38.1% | 61.1% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct 1400009360631400009 | 451 | 623 | 10 | 1,084 | 41.6% | 57.5% | R+15.9 |
| Precinct 0300001360630300001 | 560 | 517 | 4 | 1,081 | 51.8% | 47.8% | D+4.0 |
| Precinct 0805002360630805002 | 598 | 456 | 9 | 1,063 | 56.3% | 42.9% | D+13.4 |
| Precinct 0903001360630903001 | 433 | 612 | 12 | 1,057 | 41.0% | 57.9% | R+16.9 |
| Precinct 0803005360630803005 | 441 | 591 | 9 | 1,041 | 42.4% | 56.8% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct 0403001360630403001 | 468 | 564 | 8 | 1,040 | 45.0% | 54.2% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct 1400001360631400001 | 340 | 676 | 9 | 1,025 | 33.2% | 66.0% | R+32.8 |
| Precinct 1500004360631500004 | 316 | 687 | 10 | 1,013 | 31.2% | 67.8% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct 0700001360630700001 | 373 | 617 | 1 | 991 | 37.6% | 62.3% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct 0902002360630902002 | 478 | 480 | 7 | 965 | 49.5% | 49.7% | R+0.2 |
| Precinct 1200004360631200004 | 197 | 761 | 1 | 959 | 20.5% | 79.4% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct 0902001360630902001 | 428 | 515 | 8 | 951 | 45.0% | 54.2% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct 1400004360631400004 | 397 | 547 | 7 | 951 | 41.7% | 57.5% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct 0600003360630600003 | 301 | 638 | 4 | 943 | 31.9% | 67.7% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct 1000004360631000004 | 351 | 557 | 9 | 917 | 38.3% | 60.7% | R+22.5 |
| Precinct 0100003360630100003 | 290 | 590 | 6 | 886 | 32.7% | 66.6% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct 0100002360630100002 | 269 | 604 | 4 | 877 | 30.7% | 68.9% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct 0805005360630805005 | 458 | 414 | 5 | 877 | 52.2% | 47.2% | D+5.0 |
| Precinct 0903006360630903006 | 414 | 453 | 6 | 873 | 47.4% | 51.9% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct 1400010360631400010 | 364 | 502 | 6 | 872 | 41.7% | 57.6% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct 0804002360630804002 | 631 | 235 | 5 | 871 | 72.4% | 27.0% | D+45.5 |
| Precinct 0903005360630903005 | 357 | 492 | 8 | 857 | 41.7% | 57.4% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct 0600005360630600005 | 253 | 600 | 3 | 856 | 29.6% | 70.1% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct 1500003360631500003 | 227 | 622 | 5 | 854 | 26.6% | 72.8% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct 0806003360630806003 | 462 | 372 | 14 | 848 | 54.5% | 43.9% | D+10.6 |
| Precinct 0803008360630803008 | 394 | 450 | 3 | 847 | 46.5% | 53.1% | R+6.6 |
| Precinct 1400008360631400008 | 322 | 521 | 4 | 847 | 38.0% | 61.5% | R+23.5 |
| Precinct 0804005360630804005 | 575 | 268 | 1 | 844 | 68.1% | 31.8% | D+36.4 |
| Precinct 0500008360630500008 | 434 | 397 | 5 | 836 | 51.9% | 47.5% | D+4.4 |
| Precinct 0903004360630903004 | 327 | 503 | 3 | 833 | 39.3% | 60.4% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct 0404001360630404001 | 395 | 427 | 10 | 832 | 47.5% | 51.3% | R+3.8 |
| Precinct 1000003360631000003 | 304 | 512 | 9 | 825 | 36.8% | 62.1% | R+25.2 |
| Precinct 1400006360631400006 | 323 | 494 | 6 | 823 | 39.2% | 60.0% | R+20.8 |
| Precinct 0401002360630401002 | 408 | 401 | 7 | 816 | 50.0% | 49.1% | D+0.9 |
| Precinct 0402001360630402001 | 436 | 373 | 6 | 815 | 53.5% | 45.8% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct 1200001360631200001 | 262 | 527 | 10 | 799 | 32.8% | 66.0% | R+33.2 |
| Precinct 0806006360630806006 | 345 | 444 | 5 | 794 | 43.5% | 55.9% | R+12.5 |
| Precinct 1100004360631100004 | 369 | 416 | 3 | 788 | 46.8% | 52.8% | R+6.0 |
| Precinct 1200002360631200002 | 260 | 519 | 6 | 785 | 33.1% | 66.1% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct 0401001360630401001 | 352 | 426 | 5 | 783 | 45.0% | 54.4% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct 1400005360631400005 | 371 | 406 | 1 | 778 | 47.7% | 52.2% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct 0405001360630405001 | 398 | 356 | 11 | 765 | 52.0% | 46.5% | D+5.5 |
| Precinct 1500002360631500002 | 189 | 563 | 6 | 758 | 24.9% | 74.3% | R+49.3 |
| Precinct 0804004360630804004 | 555 | 194 | 6 | 755 | 73.5% | 25.7% | D+47.8 |
| Precinct 0200002360630200002 | 182 | 563 | 5 | 750 | 24.3% | 75.1% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct 0700003360630700003 | 291 | 445 | 6 | 742 | 39.2% | 60.0% | R+20.8 |
| Precinct 0902007360630902007 | 373 | 344 | 5 | 722 | 51.7% | 47.6% | D+4.0 |
| Precinct 0805001360630805001 | 367 | 319 | 14 | 700 | 52.4% | 45.6% | D+6.9 |
| Precinct 1400013360631400013 | 235 | 439 | 14 | 688 | 34.2% | 63.8% | R+29.7 |
| Precinct 0300008360630300008 | 317 | 360 | 3 | 680 | 46.6% | 52.9% | R+6.3 |
| Precinct 0300005360630300005 | 247 | 417 | 4 | 668 | 37.0% | 62.4% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct 0500009360630500009 | 270 | 395 | 3 | 668 | 40.4% | 59.1% | R+18.7 |
| Precinct 0803004360630803004 | 313 | 347 | 4 | 664 | 47.1% | 52.3% | R+5.1 |
| Precinct 0500010360630500010 | 290 | 370 | 3 | 663 | 43.7% | 55.8% | R+12.1 |
| Precinct 0902005360630902005 | 343 | 302 | 8 | 653 | 52.5% | 46.2% | D+6.3 |
| Precinct 1500001360631500001 | 200 | 450 | 1 | 651 | 30.7% | 69.1% | R+38.4 |
| Precinct 0803007360630803007 | 304 | 328 | 3 | 635 | 47.9% | 51.7% | R+3.8 |
| Precinct 0600004360630600004 | 217 | 411 | 6 | 634 | 34.2% | 64.8% | R+30.6 |
| Precinct 1400003360631400003 | 236 | 393 | 2 | 631 | 37.4% | 62.3% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct 0806007360630806007 | 278 | 347 | 3 | 628 | 44.3% | 55.3% | R+11.0 |
| Precinct 0803003360630803003 | 274 | 339 | 5 | 618 | 44.3% | 54.9% | R+10.5 |
| Precinct 0404002360630404002 | 324 | 271 | 11 | 606 | 53.5% | 44.7% | D+8.7 |
| Precinct 0700002360630700002 | 222 | 369 | 2 | 593 | 37.4% | 62.2% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct 0805003360630805003 | 308 | 270 | 5 | 583 | 52.8% | 46.3% | D+6.5 |
| Precinct 0805004360630805004 | 358 | 208 | 4 | 570 | 62.8% | 36.5% | D+26.3 |
| Precinct 1400002360631400002 | 238 | 328 | 1 | 567 | 42.0% | 57.8% | R+15.9 |
| Precinct 0902006360630902006 | 266 | 286 | 9 | 561 | 47.4% | 51.0% | R+3.6 |
| Precinct 1400011360631400011 | 183 | 360 | 5 | 548 | 33.4% | 65.7% | R+32.3 |
| Precinct 1400012360631400012 | 174 | 350 | 2 | 526 | 33.1% | 66.5% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct 0803002360630803002 | 229 | 288 | 7 | 524 | 43.7% | 55.0% | R+11.3 |
| Precinct 0806005360630806005 | 274 | 227 | 2 | 503 | 54.5% | 45.1% | D+9.3 |
| Precinct 0806002360630806002 | 262 | 219 | 11 | 492 | 53.3% | 44.5% | D+8.7 |
| Precinct 0804001360630804001 | 406 | 70 | 1 | 477 | 85.1% | 14.7% | D+70.4 |
| Precinct 0403002360630403002 | 224 | 246 | 5 | 475 | 47.2% | 51.8% | R+4.6 |
| Precinct 0500002360630500002 | 187 | 263 | 5 | 455 | 41.1% | 57.8% | R+16.7 |
| Precinct 0500003360630500003 | 149 | 301 | 1 | 451 | 33.0% | 66.7% | R+33.7 |
| Precinct 0803001360630803001 | 201 | 244 | 3 | 448 | 44.9% | 54.5% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct 0500006360630500006 | 172 | 271 | 4 | 447 | 38.5% | 60.6% | R+22.1 |
| Precinct 0902003360630902003 | 202 | 222 | 3 | 427 | 47.3% | 52.0% | R+4.7 |
| Precinct 1100003360631100003 | 118 | 291 | 2 | 411 | 28.7% | 70.8% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct 0806004360630806004 | 220 | 157 | 5 | 382 | 57.6% | 41.1% | D+16.5 |
| Precinct 0500016360630500016 | 157 | 211 | 3 | 371 | 42.3% | 56.9% | R+14.6 |
| Precinct 0806001360630806001 | 222 | 136 | 1 | 359 | 61.8% | 37.9% | D+24.0 |
| Precinct 0804003360630804003 | 269 | 77 | 1 | 347 | 77.5% | 22.2% | D+55.3 |
| Precinct 0404003360630404003 | 166 | 140 | 4 | 310 | 53.5% | 45.2% | D+8.4 |
| Precinct 0806008360630806008 | 175 | 102 | 0 | 277 | 63.2% | 36.8% | D+26.4 |
| Precinct 0901002360630901002 | 101 | 162 | 3 | 266 | 38.0% | 60.9% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct 0500012360630500012 | 93 | 73 | 4 | 170 | 54.7% | 42.9% | D+11.8 |
| Precinct 0500014360630500014 | 25 | 23 | 0 | 48 | 52.1% | 47.9% | D+4.2 |
| Precinct 0500015360630500015 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 47 | 38.3% | 59.6% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct 0401003360630401003 | 23 | 20 | 0 | 43 | 53.5% | 46.5% | D+7.0 |
| Precinct 0500017360630500017 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 20 | 40.0% | 60.0% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct 0902004360630902004 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 36.4% | 63.6% | R+27.3 |
| Precinct 0500013360630500013 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +1.3% |
| 1896 | −14.1% |
| 1900 | −9.2% |
| 1904 | −17.4% |
| 1908 | −12.6% |
| 1912 | +10.6% |
| 1916 | −18.1% |
| 1920 | −44.4% |
| 1924 | −47.0% |
| 1928 | −31.2% |
| 1932 | −19.1% |
| 1936 | −1.5% |
| 1940 | −5.0% |
| 1944 | −3.8% |
| 1948 | −2.4% |
| 1952 | −20.0% |
| 1956 | −34.9% |
| 1960 | +1.6% |
| 1964 | +40.2% |
| 1968 | +3.6% |
| 1972 | −16.8% |
| 1976 | −2.7% |
| 1980 | +1.9% |
| 1984 | −10.7% |
| 1988 | +1.5% |
| 1992 | +5.4% |
| 1996 | +14.3% |
| 2000 | +7.3% |
| 2004 | +0.5% |
| 2008 | +1.0% |
| 2012 | +0.8% |
| 2016 | −17.8% |
| 2020 | −9.6% |
| 2024 | −14.9% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 14 points more Democratic.
150,285 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−65 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −6,731 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $58,056 in average income, against $71,357 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+6.9 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Niagara County, NY itself (R+14.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Erie County, NY2,163D+9.6
- Monroe County, NY86D+19.0
- Orleans County, NY86R+40.4
- Genesee County, NY39R+33.9
- Chautauqua County, NY33R+21.9
- Queens County, NY32D+24.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Erie County, NY1,892
- Orleans County, NY123
- Monroe County, NY114
- Genesee County, NY47
- Cattaraugus County, NY36
- Pinellas County, FL30
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −681 |
| 2012 | −1,017 |
| 2013 | −580 |
| 2014 | −685 |
| 2015 | −958 |
| 2016 | −786 |
| 2017 | −442 |
| 2018 | −669 |
| 2019 | −519 |
| 2021 | +305 |
| 2022 | −451 |
| 2023 | −418 |
| 2024 | +235 |
| 2025 | −65 |
Niagara County, anchored by Lockport and the falls-adjacent city of Niagara Falls, shifted from a competitive swing county to a reliably Republican-leaning one as its industrial-era Democratic base eroded alongside manufacturing employment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 47.0 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.9 points.
A population of 210,721, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,633 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lake County and Beaver County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Niagara County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36063/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.