Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Buffalo
presidential margin
2008D+7.32012D+5.32016R+8.02020R+1.22024R+5.8
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+5.8
2024
median income$69,727U.S. $80,734 · NY $85,974
median age41.4U.S. 39.1
poverty rate14.2%U.S. 12.5%
bachelor’s+ (25+)32.4%U.S. 35.6%
non-english9.1%U.S. 22.3%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
German21.5%
Irish15.2%
Italian13.4%
African American†7.6%
African0.4%
Jamaican0.2%
Puerto Rican3.2%
Mexican0.8%
Dominican0.3%
Asian Indian0.8%
Bangladeshi0.6%
Chinese0.5%
religion
other traditions
Mainline5.9%
Black Protestant2.8%
Muslim2.2%
Other Christian0.6%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Buffalo, New York

Akashic
BuffaloTrumpR+5.8
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Buffalo, NYA map of the constituent counties of Buffalo, NY, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Erie County, NY · D+9.6Niagara County, NY · R+14.9Chautauqua County, NY · R+21.9Potter County, PA · R+62.3Allegany County, NY · R+43.1Wyoming County, NY · R+48.2Cattaraugus County, NY · R+32.7Orleans County, NY · R+40.4Genesee County, NY · R+33.9McKean County, PA · R+47.2
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican52.6%401,895
Kamala HarrisDemocratic46.8%357,533
Jill SteinWrite-In0.5%4,110
D+60
R+60
10 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
County-level results (10 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Buffalo, NY — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Allegany County, NYRepublicanR+43.1
Cattaraugus County, NYRepublicanR+32.7
Chautauqua County, NYRepublicanR+21.9
Erie County, NYDemocraticD+9.6
Genesee County, NYRepublicanR+33.9
McKean County, PARepublicanR+47.2
Niagara County, NYRepublicanR+14.9
Orleans County, NYRepublicanR+40.4
Potter County, PARepublicanR+62.3
Wyoming County, NYRepublicanR+48.2
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
46.8%Harris357,533
52.6%Trump401,895
0.5%Stein4,110
−5.8%
763,538
R
48.4%Biden381,423
49.6%Trump390,985
1.9%Jorgensen15,105
−1.2%
787,513
R
43.4%Clinton305,836
51.4%Trump362,254
5.2%Trump36,462
−8.0%
704,552
D
51.7%Obama352,185
46.4%Romney316,170
1.9%Romney12,645
+5.3%
681,000
D
52.8%Obama386,574
45.5%McCain333,269
1.6%McCain11,817
+7.3%
731,660
D
50.7%Kerry377,015
47.3%Bush351,697
2.0%Bush15,200
+3.4%
743,912
D
51.3%Gore364,853
43.4%Bush308,999
5.3%Nader37,668
+7.8%
711,520
D
50.6%Clinton344,935
35.4%Dole241,835
14.0%Perot95,557
+15.1%
682,327
D
39.3%Clinton293,791
32.2%Bush240,859
28.5%Perot212,828
+7.1%
747,478
D
50.6%Dukakis354,960
48.6%Bush340,962
0.7%Bush5,248
+2.0%
701,170
R
45.5%Mondale340,865
54.3%Reagan406,908
0.3%Reagan1,931
−8.8%
749,704
D
47.2%Carter326,396
44.3%Reagan306,291
8.5%Anderson58,772
+2.9%
691,459
R
47.9%Carter352,287
51.5%Ford378,799
0.6%Ford4,779
−3.6%
735,865
R
42.2%McGovern322,660
57.5%Nixon439,338
0.3%Schmitz2,547
−15.3%
764,545
D
50.2%Humphrey363,185
42.5%Nixon306,937
7.3%Wallace52,653
+7.8%
722,775
D
70.5%Johnson535,902
29.4%Goldwater223,249
0.1%Hass1,071
+41.1%
760,222
D
51.1%Kennedy408,951
48.8%Nixon390,610
0.1%Byrd685
+2.3%
800,246
R
33.3%Stevenson250,897
66.7%Eisenhower502,503
0.0%Andrews95
−33.4%
753,495
R
39.3%Stevenson293,682
60.5%Eisenhower452,805
0.2%Hallinan1,544
−21.3%
748,031
R
46.5%Truman290,475
50.9%Dewey317,857
2.7%Thurmond16,648
−4.4%
624,980
R
46.1%Roosevelt293,057
53.5%Dewey339,931
0.3%Thomas2,205
−7.4%
635,193
R
44.8%Roosevelt286,815
54.9%Willkie351,338
0.3%Thomas1,919
−10.1%
640,072
R
47.5%Roosevelt281,133
50.4%Landon298,327
2.1%Lemke12,593
−2.9%
592,053
R
41.1%Roosevelt206,996
55.2%Hoover277,619
3.7%Thomas18,745
−14.0%
503,360
R
36.9%Smith189,618
59.8%Hoover307,190
3.4%Thomas17,234
−22.9%
514,042
R
19.8%Davis74,210
64.0%Coolidge240,162
16.2%La Follette60,713
−44.2%
375,085
R
23.5%Cox75,014
67.1%Harding214,487
9.5%Debs30,230
−43.6%
319,731
R
39.8%Wilson83,906
55.9%Hughes117,896
4.3%Benson9,033
−16.1%
210,835
O
35.1%Wilson65,234
28.2%Taft52,473
36.7%Roosevelt68,370
Roosevelt +1.7
186,077
R
39.0%Bryan82,848
56.8%Taft120,553
4.2%Debs8,946
−17.8%
212,347
R
34.2%Parker67,640
60.9%Roosevelt120,446
4.9%Debs9,712
−26.7%
197,798
R
40.0%Bryan78,652
56.6%McKinley111,212
3.4%Woolley6,618
−16.6%
196,482
R
37.2%Bryan67,400
59.8%McKinley108,158
3.0%Palmer5,435
−22.5%
180,993
R
41.5%Cleveland68,364
50.3%Harrison82,890
8.2%Weaver13,557
−8.8%
164,811
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −5.8% in 2024.flipped R · 2016−5.8%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892−8.8%
1896−22.5%
1900−16.6%
1904−26.7%
1908−17.8%
1912+6.9%
1916−16.1%
1920−43.6%
1924−44.2%
1928−22.9%
1932−14.0%
1936−2.9%
1940−10.1%
1944−7.4%
1948−4.4%
1952−21.3%
1956−33.4%
1960+2.3%
1964+41.1%
1968+7.8%
1972−15.3%
1976−3.6%
1980+2.9%
1984−8.8%
1988+2.0%
1992+7.1%
1996+15.1%
2000+7.8%
2004+3.4%
2008+7.3%
2012+5.3%
2016−8.0%
2020−1.2%
2024−5.8%
DemocraticRepublican

The Buffalo media market blends a revitalizing urban center with rural and small-city counties that lean differently, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide margin tracking across western New York.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 44.2 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.8 points.

A population of 1,603,431, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,727 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

Political twins — media markets

The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Pittsburgh
Pennsylvania
83.7twin score
2000–2004 trajectoryItalian ancestry% Catholic≠ elasticity
Syracuse
New York
79.7twin score
2000–2004 trajectoryItalian ancestry% Evangelical≠ % unaffiliated
Cleveland-Akron (Canton)
Ohio
77.0twin score
2000–2020 trajectory≠ % Catholic

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buffalo, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/514/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Buffalo

counties10
Allegany CountyCattaraugus CountyChautauqua CountyErie CountyGenesee CountyMcKean CountyNiagara CountyOrleans CountyPotter CountyWyoming County

Frequently asked questions

How did Buffalo, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buffalo, New York voted Republican by 5.8 points (R+5.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 763,538 votes cast, 357,533 went Democratic and 401,895 went Republican.
When did Buffalo, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Buffalo, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Buffalo, New York?
Buffalo, New York has a population of 1,603,431 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buffalo, New York?
Median household income in Buffalo, New York is $69,727 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Buffalo, New York?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Buffalo, New York from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.