HarrisDemocratic46.8%357,533TrumpRepublican52.6%401,895SteinIndependent0.3%2,527
R+5.8- Lead
- 44,362
- Total
- 763,538
- vs nation
- R+4.3
Akashicmedia market
Buffalo
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
10 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic48.4%381,423TrumpRepublican49.6%390,985OtherAll other candidates1.9%15,105
R+1.2- Lead
- 9,562
- Total
- 787,513
- vs nation
- R+5.7
ClintonDemocratic43.4%305,836TrumpRepublican51.4%362,254OtherAll other candidates5.2%36,462
R+8.0- Lead
- 56,418
- Total
- 704,552
- vs nation
- R+10.1
ObamaDemocratic51.7%352,185RomneyRepublican46.4%316,170OtherAll other candidates1.9%12,645
D+5.3- Lead
- 36,015
- Total
- 681,000
- vs nation
- D+1.4
ObamaDemocratic52.8%386,574McCainRepublican45.5%333,269OtherAll other candidates1.6%11,817
D+7.3- Lead
- 53,305
- Total
- 731,660
- vs nation
- Even
KerryDemocratic50.7%377,015BushRepublican47.3%351,697OtherAll other candidates2.0%15,200
D+3.4- Lead
- 25,318
- Total
- 743,912
- vs nation
- D+5.9
GoreDemocratic51.3%364,853BushRepublican43.4%308,999OtherAll other candidates5.3%37,668
D+7.8- Lead
- 55,854
- Total
- 711,520
- vs nation
- D+7.3
ClintonDemocratic50.6%344,935DoleRepublican35.4%241,835OtherAll other candidates14.0%95,557
D+15.1- Lead
- 103,100
- Total
- 682,327
- vs nation
- D+6.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 1,603,4312024 5-year
- Population density
- 189 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 8,501 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $69,7272024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44.2 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Pittsburgh, PA · twin score 83.7
presidential history
Party record book
Buffalo · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
70.5%
535,902 votes · D+41.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 52.8%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
67.1%
214,487 votes · R+43.6
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 66.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
535,902votes
70.5% of the vote · D+41.1
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 408,951 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
502,503votes
66.7% of the vote · R+33.4
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 452,805 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+18.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+41.1 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1980 · +12.6 pts
Republican
Herbert Hoover1932
+31.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+14.0 · U.S. D+17.8
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +27.2 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
On a multi-state Place, each row sums votes cast in the separate U.S. House races held inside the Place that year. It is a geographic vote total, not one contest or a seat tally.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+5.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.8
Buffalo registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 11-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
1,105,581 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−2,618 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −72,048 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −4,566 |
| 2012 | −6,801 |
| 2013 | −5,046 |
| 2014 | −6,517 |
| 2015 | −9,070 |
| 2016 | −10,165 |
| 2017 | −5,293 |
| 2018 | −5,247 |
| 2019 | −4,847 |
| 2021 | −287 |
| 2022 | −5,501 |
| 2023 | −4,681 |
| 2024 | −1,409 |
| 2025 | −2,618 |
The Buffalo media market blends a revitalizing urban center with rural and small-city counties that lean differently, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide margin tracking across western New York.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 44.2 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.8 points.
A population of 1,603,431, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,727 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Pittsburgh and Syracuse.
Political twins — media markets
The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Pittsburgh
Pennsylvania
83.7twin score
2000–2004 trajectoryItalian ancestry% Catholic≠ elasticity
Syracuse
New York
79.7twin score
2000–2004 trajectoryItalian ancestry% Evangelical≠ % unaffiliated
Cleveland-Akron (Canton)
Ohio
77.0twin score
2000–2020 trajectory≠ % Catholic
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buffalo, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/514/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Buffalo
Frequently asked questions
How did Buffalo, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buffalo, New York voted Republican by 5.8 points (R+5.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 763,538 votes cast, 357,533 went Democratic and 401,895 went Republican.
When did Buffalo, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Buffalo, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Buffalo, New York?
Buffalo, New York has a population of 1,603,431 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buffalo, New York?
Median household income in Buffalo, New York is $69,727 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Buffalo, New York?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Buffalo, New York from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.