George H. W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis.
Michael Dukakis (D) vs George H. W. Bush (R). Every state below links to its full contest page with county-level results.
Nominees: Michael Dukakis (D) · George H. W. Bush (R)
The 1988 cycle at a glance
The popular vote in the long run
National Democratic-minus-Republican margin, 1892–1988. Blue above the line is a Democratic margin, red below Republican.
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +1.7% |
| 1896 | −6.1% |
| 1900 | −7.5% |
| 1904 | −19.7% |
| 1908 | −9.6% |
| 1912 | +19.5% |
| 1916 | +3.1% |
| 1920 | −26.2% |
| 1924 | −25.2% |
| 1928 | −17.5% |
| 1932 | +17.8% |
| 1936 | +24.3% |
| 1940 | +9.9% |
| 1944 | +7.5% |
| 1948 | +4.5% |
| 1952 | −10.8% |
| 1956 | −15.4% |
| 1960 | +0.2% |
| 1964 | +22.6% |
| 1968 | −0.7% |
| 1972 | −23.2% |
| 1976 | +2.1% |
| 1980 | −9.7% |
| 1984 | −18.2% |
| 1988 | −7.7% |
The path to 270
Bush's states, safest to closest — the running electoral-vote total crosses 270 at the tipping-point state.
Electoral college
538 electors at stake · 270 to win
R Bush won the presidency, clearing the 270-vote majority with 156 to spare.
Tipping-point stateOrdered from Bush’s strongest states down, Michigan cast the electoral votes that crossed 270 — Bush carried it R+7.9.
How the country moved
Every county that voted in both cycles, placed by how its margin swung and sized by its turnout. 2,922 of 3,142 moved toward the Democrats. The median county swung D+12.8; weighted by turnout — the average voter's county — the shift was D+11.2.
The sharpest county swings
Of the counties reporting in both cycles, the biggest shifts in presidential margin since 1984. Each links to the county's full record.
| County | State | Swing | 1984 margin | 1988 margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washita County | OK | D+40.0 | R+42.4 | R+2.4 |
| Rush County | KS | D+40.0 | R+41.1 | R+1.2 |
| Ellis County | KS | D+37.4 | R+36.5 | D+0.9 |
| Ness County | KS | D+36.7 | R+52.5 | R+15.8 |
| Shackelford County | TX | D+35.9 | R+47.8 | R+11.8 |
| Menard County | TX | D+34.7 | R+29.4 | D+5.3 |
Results by state
Every row links to the state's contest page with its county map. Electoral votes reflect the 1988 apportionment. The Swing column is the change in margin since 1984; the faint tick on each bar marks where the state stood then.
| State | Won | Electoral votes | Margin | Swing | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | R | 3 | D+13.5 | 72,585 | 119,250 | 200,116 | |
| Alabama | R | 9 | D+3.0 | 549,506 | 815,576 | 1,377,970 | |
| Arkansas | R | 6 | D+8.0 | 349,237 | 466,578 | 827,738 | |
| Arizona | R | 7 | D+12.7 | 454,029 | 702,541 | 1,171,873 | |
| California | R | 47 | D+12.7 | 4,702,233 | 5,054,917 | 9,887,064 | |
| Colorado | R | 8 | D+20.5 | 621,453 | 728,177 | 1,372,394 | |
| Connecticut | R | 8 | D+16.8 | 676,568 | 750,218 | 1,443,348 | |
| District of Columbia | D | 3 | R+3.3 | 159,407 | 27,590 | 192,877 | |
| Delaware | R | 3 | D+7.4 | 108,647 | 139,639 | 249,891 | |
| Florida | R | 21 | D+8.3 | 1,656,701 | 2,618,885 | 4,302,313 | |
| Georgia | R | 12 | D+0.1 | 714,792 | 1,081,331 | 1,809,657 | |
| Hawaii | D | 4 | D+20.8 | 192,364 | 158,625 | 354,461 | |
| Iowa | D | 8 | D+17.6 | 670,557 | 545,355 | 1,225,614 | |
| Idaho | R | 4 | D+19.9 | 147,272 | 253,881 | 408,968 | |
| Illinois | R | 24 | D+10.8 | 2,215,940 | 2,310,939 | 4,559,120 | |
| Indiana | R | 12 | D+3.8 | 860,643 | 1,297,763 | 2,168,621 | |
| Kansas | R | 7 | D+20.4 | 422,636 | 554,049 | 993,044 | |
| Kentucky | R | 9 | D+9.0 | 580,368 | 734,281 | 1,322,517 | |
| Louisiana | R | 10 | D+12.4 | 717,460 | 883,702 | 1,628,202 | |
| Massachusetts | D | 13 | D+10.6 | 1,401,415 | 1,194,635 | 2,632,805 | |
| Maryland | R | 10 | D+2.6 | 826,304 | 876,167 | 1,714,358 | |
| Maine | R | 4 | D+10.6 | 243,569 | 307,131 | 555,035 | |
| Michigan | R | 20 | D+11.1 | 1,675,783 | 1,965,486 | 3,669,163 | |
| Minnesota | D | 10 | D+6.8 | 1,109,471 | 962,337 | 2,093,176 | |
| Missouri | R | 11 | D+16.1 | 1,001,619 | 1,084,953 | 2,093,234 | |
| Mississippi | R | 7 | D+3.6 | 363,921 | 557,890 | 931,527 | |
| Montana | R | 4 | D+16.4 | 168,936 | 190,412 | 365,674 | |
| North Carolina | R | 13 | D+7.7 | 890,167 | 1,237,258 | 2,134,370 | |
| North Dakota | R | 3 | D+18.0 | 127,739 | 166,559 | 297,261 | |
| Nebraska | R | 5 | D+20.8 | 259,646 | 398,447 | 662,372 | |
| New Hampshire | R | 4 | D+11.5 | 163,696 | 281,537 | 450,525 | |
| New Jersey | R | 16 | D+7.3 | 1,320,352 | 1,743,192 | 3,099,553 | |
| New Mexico | R | 5 | D+15.5 | 244,497 | 270,341 | 521,294 | |
| Nevada | R | 4 | D+12.9 | 132,738 | 206,040 | 350,067 | |
| New York | D | 36 | D+12.1 | 3,347,882 | 3,081,871 | 6,485,683 | |
| Ohio | R | 23 | D+7.9 | 1,939,629 | 2,416,549 | 4,393,699 | |
| Oklahoma | R | 8 | D+21.3 | 483,423 | 678,367 | 1,171,036 | |
| Oregon | D | 7 | D+16.8 | 616,206 | 560,126 | 1,201,694 | |
| Pennsylvania | R | 25 | D+5.0 | 2,194,944 | 2,300,087 | 4,536,251 | |
| Rhode Island | D | 4 | D+15.4 | 225,123 | 177,761 | 404,569 | |
| South Carolina | R | 8 | D+4.1 | 370,554 | 606,443 | 986,009 | |
| South Dakota | R | 3 | D+20.1 | 145,560 | 165,415 | 312,991 | |
| Tennessee | R | 11 | R+0.1 | 679,794 | 947,233 | 1,636,251 | |
| Texas | R | 29 | D+14.9 | 2,352,748 | 3,036,829 | 5,427,410 | |
| Utah | R | 5 | D+15.7 | 207,343 | 428,442 | 647,008 | |
| Virginia | R | 12 | D+4.7 | 859,799 | 1,309,162 | 2,191,609 | |
| Vermont | R | 3 | D+13.6 | 115,775 | 124,331 | 243,333 | |
| Washington | D | 10 | D+14.6 | 933,516 | 903,835 | 1,865,253 | |
| Wisconsin | D | 11 | D+12.8 | 1,126,794 | 1,047,499 | 2,189,335 | |
| West Virginia | D | 6 | D+15.3 | 341,016 | 310,065 | 653,311 | |
| Wyoming | R | 3 | D+19.7 | 67,113 | 106,867 | 176,551 |
Source. MIT Election Data + Science Lab — 1988 presidential returns · official state + county-level results. Real returns — nothing estimated.