- Lead
- 1,181
- Total
- 2,357
- vs nation
- R+48.6
- Turnout
- 68.2%
Catron County, NM
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.2% of 3,471 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,103
- Total
- 2,326
- vs nation
- R+51.9
- Turnout
- 77.8%
- Lead
- 1,037
- Total
- 2,049
- vs nation
- R+52.7
- Turnout
- 69.2%
- Lead
- 934
- Total
- 2,123
- vs nation
- R+47.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 734
- Total
- 2,112
- vs nation
- R+42.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 876
- Total
- 1,993
- vs nation
- R+41.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 920
- Total
- 1,711
- vs nation
- R+54.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 500
- Total
- 1,524
- vs nation
- R+41.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+50.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 3,7432024 5-year
- Median household income
- $49,8642024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.0 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+53.8 in 2000MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Adams County, ID · twin score 81.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.2%2,367 participants ÷ 3,471 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 54.4%–56.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,069 | 2,989 | 69.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 1,854 | 3,071 | 60.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 2,338 | 3,004 | 77.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,026 | 3,164 | 64.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 2,367 | 3,471 | 68.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
15 precincts · 2,335 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000002000002 | 99 | 424 | 6 | 529 | 18.7% | 80.2% | R+61.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000001000001 | 94 | 276 | 6 | 376 | 25.0% | 73.4% | R+48.4 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 93 | 227 | 0 | 320 | 29.1% | 70.9% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 102 | 194 | 0 | 296 | 34.5% | 65.5% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 72 | 184 | 0 | 256 | 28.1% | 71.9% | R+43.8 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 35 | 194 | 0 | 229 | 15.3% | 84.7% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 38 | 126 | 0 | 164 | 23.2% | 76.8% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 24 | 93 | 0 | 117 | 20.5% | 79.5% | R+59.0 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 14 | 34 | 0 | 48 | 29.2% | 70.8% | R+41.7 |
| Catron County Precinct 135_350031 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Catron County Precinct 235_350032 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Catron County Precinct 335_350033 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Catron County Precinct 435_350034 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Catron County Precinct 535_350035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Catron County Precinct 635_350036 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1924–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1924 | −7.7% |
| 1928 | −29.6% |
| 1932 | +22.5% |
| 1936 | +29.0% |
| 1940 | +4.5% |
| 1944 | −8.5% |
| 1948 | +10.8% |
| 1952 | −23.0% |
| 1956 | −19.7% |
| 1960 | −7.9% |
| 1964 | +3.3% |
| 1968 | −36.6% |
| 1972 | −49.5% |
| 1976 | −7.5% |
| 1980 | −30.5% |
| 1984 | −39.0% |
| 1988 | −29.3% |
| 1992 | −19.7% |
| 1996 | −32.8% |
| 2000 | −53.8% |
| 2004 | −44.0% |
| 2008 | −34.8% |
| 2012 | −44.0% |
| 2016 | −50.6% |
| 2020 | −47.4% |
| 2024 | −50.1% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 26.7%612 | 73.3%1,676 | 2,288 |
| 2020 | R | 27.5%619 | 72.5%1,631 | 2,250 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 4.2 points more Democratic.
3,303 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+48 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +387 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $55,554 in average income, against $51,839 for residents who stayed — 7% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −5 |
| 2012 | −72 |
| 2013 | −19 |
| 2014 | −29 |
| 2015 | −53 |
| 2016 | +61 |
| 2017 | +61 |
| 2018 | +25 |
| 2019 | −9 |
| 2021 | +154 |
| 2022 | +111 |
| 2023 | +68 |
| 2024 | +46 |
| 2025 | +48 |
Catron County spans over 6,900 square miles with fewer than 3,600 residents, making it one of the most sparsely settled counties in the contiguous U.S. Its economy is rooted in cattle ranching and timber, and it has returned Republican presidential margins above 40 points in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.0 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 53.8 points in 2000. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 50.1 points.
A population of 3,743, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $49,864 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Adams County and Menard County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Catron County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35003/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.