HarrisDemocratic49.8%31,299TrumpRepublican48.6%30,572KennedyWe The People0.7%443
D+1.2- Lead
- 727
- Total
- 62,906
- vs nation
- D+2.6
- Turnout
- 64.3%
Akashiccounty
Black Hawk County, IA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 64.3% of 98,441 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic53.5%35,647TrumpRepublican44.5%29,640JorgensenLibertarian1.1%722
D+9.0- Lead
- 6,007
- Total
- 66,593
- vs nation
- D+4.6
- Turnout
- 67.9%
ClintonDemocratic49.6%32,233TrumpRepublican42.3%27,476JohnsonLibertarian3.6%2,368
D+7.3- Lead
- 4,757
- Total
- 65,007
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- 64.4%
ObamaDemocratic59.3%39,821RomneyRepublican39.1%26,235JohnsonLibertarian0.8%540
D+20.2- Lead
- 13,586
- Total
- 67,141
- vs nation
- D+16.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic60.5%39,184McCainRepublican38.1%24,662OtherAll other candidates1.4%929
D+22.4- Lead
- 14,522
- Total
- 64,775
- vs nation
- D+15.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic55.4%35,392BushRepublican43.9%28,046OtherAll other candidates0.7%469
D+11.5- Lead
- 7,346
- Total
- 63,907
- vs nation
- D+14.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic54.7%30,112BushRepublican42.6%23,468NaderGreen2.1%1,132
D+12.1- Lead
- 6,644
- Total
- 55,085
- vs nation
- D+11.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic55.8%29,651DoleRepublican36.4%19,322PerotReform6.8%3,623
D+19.4- Lead
- 10,329
- Total
- 53,109
- vs nation
- D+10.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+1.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 131,0492024 5-year
- Median household income
- $66,4172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+22.4 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.5 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Linn County, IA · twin score 93.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 64.3%63,279 participants ÷ 98,441 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.4%–48.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 65,007 | 101,015 | 64.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 53,470 | 100,375 | 53.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 66,970 | 98,620 | 67.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 47,514 | 98,845 | 48.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 63,279 | 98,441 | 64.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
59 precincts · 62,653 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct W106Precinct W106 | 840 | 1,045 | 20 | 1,905 | 44.1% | 54.9% | R+10.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct X503Precinct X503 | 948 | 914 | 24 | 1,886 | 50.3% | 48.5% | D+1.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct X102Precinct X102 | 976 | 710 | 26 | 1,712 | 57.0% | 41.5% | D+15.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct X501Precinct X501 | 910 | 728 | 30 | 1,668 | 54.6% | 43.6% | D+10.9 |
| Precinct -HudsonHudson | 599 | 1,038 | 16 | 1,653 | 36.2% | 62.8% | R+26.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct X502Precinct X502 | 821 | 811 | 15 | 1,647 | 49.8% | 49.2% | D+0.6 |
| Precinct -Big Creek/Spring Creek/La PorteBig Creek/Spring Creek/La Porte | 539 | 1,080 | 26 | 1,645 | 32.8% | 65.7% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct -Cedar/Poyner 2/GilbertvilleCedar/Poyner 2/Gilbertville | 633 | 964 | 21 | 1,618 | 39.1% | 59.6% | R+20.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct X202Precinct X202 | 836 | 745 | 21 | 1,602 | 52.2% | 46.5% | D+5.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct X203Precinct X203 | 778 | 791 | 22 | 1,591 | 48.9% | 49.7% | R+0.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct X302Precinct X302 | 793 | 775 | 21 | 1,589 | 49.9% | 48.8% | D+1.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct X301Precinct X301 | 755 | 810 | 21 | 1,586 | 47.6% | 51.1% | R+3.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct X303Precinct X303 | 739 | 821 | 21 | 1,581 | 46.7% | 51.9% | R+5.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct W201Precinct W201 | 737 | 722 | 15 | 1,474 | 50.0% | 49.0% | D+1.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct X403Precinct X403 | 769 | 646 | 16 | 1,431 | 53.7% | 45.1% | D+8.6 |
| Precinct -Poy1/E.Wloo/Raymond/Fox/JesupPoy1/E.Wloo/Raymond/Fox/Jesup | 498 | 918 | 12 | 1,428 | 34.9% | 64.3% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct X402Precinct X402 | 797 | 610 | 15 | 1,422 | 56.0% | 42.9% | D+13.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct W104Precinct W104 | 691 | 698 | 14 | 1,403 | 49.3% | 49.8% | R+0.5 |
| Precinct -Barc/Benn/Lester/DunkertonBarc/Benn/Lester/Dunkerton | 401 | 970 | 21 | 1,392 | 28.8% | 69.7% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct X103Precinct X103 | 886 | 487 | 19 | 1,392 | 63.6% | 35.0% | D+28.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct W505Precinct W505 | 733 | 565 | 22 | 1,320 | 55.5% | 42.8% | D+12.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct X401Precinct X401 | 708 | 434 | 21 | 1,163 | 60.9% | 37.3% | D+23.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct W305Precinct W305 | 544 | 557 | 17 | 1,118 | 48.7% | 49.8% | R+1.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct W102Precinct W102 | 574 | 526 | 16 | 1,116 | 51.4% | 47.1% | D+4.3 |
| Precinct -Union/Washington/JanesvilleUnion/Washington/Janesville | 369 | 729 | 13 | 1,111 | 33.2% | 65.6% | R+32.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct W204Precinct W204 | 547 | 514 | 10 | 1,071 | 51.1% | 48.0% | D+3.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct W301Precinct W301 | 560 | 503 | 7 | 1,070 | 52.3% | 47.0% | D+5.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct W203Precinct W203 | 525 | 504 | 17 | 1,046 | 50.2% | 48.2% | D+2.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct X101Precinct X101 | 465 | 546 | 9 | 1,020 | 45.6% | 53.5% | R+7.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct W506Precinct W506 | 545 | 458 | 12 | 1,015 | 53.7% | 45.1% | D+8.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct W504Precinct W504 | 539 | 440 | 14 | 993 | 54.3% | 44.3% | D+10.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct W205Precinct W205 | 461 | 511 | 8 | 980 | 47.0% | 52.1% | R+5.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct W502Precinct W502 | 504 | 411 | 10 | 925 | 54.5% | 44.4% | D+10.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct W202Precinct W202 | 457 | 391 | 11 | 859 | 53.2% | 45.5% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct W103Precinct W103 | 488 | 307 | 15 | 810 | 60.2% | 37.9% | D+22.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct W401Precinct W401 | 604 | 187 | 8 | 799 | 75.6% | 23.4% | D+52.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct W406Precinct W406 | 415 | 360 | 9 | 784 | 52.9% | 45.9% | D+7.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct W206Precinct W206 | 345 | 431 | 5 | 781 | 44.2% | 55.2% | R+11.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct W303Precinct W303 | 501 | 267 | 11 | 779 | 64.3% | 34.3% | D+30.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct W105Precinct W105 | 406 | 366 | 6 | 778 | 52.2% | 47.0% | D+5.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct W101Precinct W101 | 363 | 369 | 9 | 741 | 49.0% | 49.8% | R+0.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct X201Precinct X201 | 495 | 233 | 13 | 741 | 66.8% | 31.4% | D+35.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct W503Precinct W503 | 433 | 297 | 7 | 737 | 58.8% | 40.3% | D+18.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct W302Precinct W302 | 418 | 295 | 11 | 724 | 57.7% | 40.7% | D+17.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct W404Precinct W404 | 371 | 324 | 8 | 703 | 52.8% | 46.1% | D+6.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct W304Precinct W304 | 431 | 206 | 7 | 644 | 66.9% | 32.0% | D+34.9 |
| Precinct -Black Hawk/Cedar Falls/LincolnBlack Hawk/Cedar Falls/Lincoln | 211 | 425 | 5 | 641 | 32.9% | 66.3% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -Elk Run HeightsElk Run Heights | 263 | 375 | 3 | 641 | 41.0% | 58.5% | R+17.5 |
| Precinct -Mt VernonMt Vernon | 224 | 399 | 7 | 630 | 35.6% | 63.3% | R+27.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct W402Precinct W402 | 458 | 140 | 13 | 611 | 75.0% | 22.9% | D+52.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct W306Precinct W306 | 355 | 204 | 15 | 574 | 61.8% | 35.5% | D+26.3 |
| Precinct -Evansdale Ward 3Evansdale Ward 3 | 233 | 332 | 6 | 571 | 40.8% | 58.1% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -Evansdale Ward 4Evansdale Ward 4 | 209 | 345 | 4 | 558 | 37.5% | 61.8% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -Evansdale Ward 1Evansdale Ward 1 | 231 | 312 | 9 | 552 | 41.8% | 56.5% | R+14.7 |
| Precinct -Eagle/OrangeEagle/Orange | 154 | 389 | 7 | 550 | 28.0% | 70.7% | R+42.7 |
| Precinct -Evansdale Ward 2Evansdale Ward 2 | 227 | 306 | 5 | 538 | 42.2% | 56.9% | R+14.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct W403Precinct W403 | 450 | 58 | 6 | 514 | 87.5% | 11.3% | D+76.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct W405Precinct W405 | 316 | 141 | 5 | 462 | 68.4% | 30.5% | D+37.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct W501Precinct W501 | 221 | 132 | 5 | 358 | 61.7% | 36.9% | D+24.9 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −15.4% |
| 1896 | −35.2% |
| 1900 | −32.1% |
| 1904 | −43.1% |
| 1908 | −25.4% |
| 1912 | +19.7% |
| 1916 | −21.8% |
| 1920 | −58.5% |
| 1924 | −53.0% |
| 1928 | −39.1% |
| 1932 | −0.3% |
| 1936 | +9.9% |
| 1940 | +0.5% |
| 1944 | +2.8% |
| 1948 | +9.8% |
| 1952 | −24.5% |
| 1956 | −16.1% |
| 1960 | −8.3% |
| 1964 | +21.7% |
| 1968 | −9.1% |
| 1972 | −17.1% |
| 1976 | −2.4% |
| 1980 | −3.4% |
| 1984 | −1.2% |
| 1988 | +13.4% |
| 1992 | +13.3% |
| 1996 | +19.4% |
| 2000 | +12.1% |
| 2004 | +11.5% |
| 2008 | +22.4% |
| 2012 | +20.2% |
| 2016 | +7.3% |
| 2020 | +9.0% |
| 2024 | +1.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+8.6
Presidential vote · 2024D+1.2
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 7.5 points more Democratic.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 86,854 | 32,177 | 21,150 | 33,472 | 55 |
| 2010 | 88,180 | 32,216 | 21,957 | 33,899 | 108 |
| 2012 | 90,672 | 32,285 | 22,535 | 35,698 | 154 |
| 2014 | 89,734 | 31,817 | 21,968 | 35,613 | 336 |
| 2016 | 89,254 | 32,745 | 23,130 | 32,765 | 614 |
| 2018 | 89,217 | 32,562 | 22,506 | 33,251 | 898 |
| 2020 | 90,023 | 35,800 | 24,211 | 29,203 | 809 |
| 2022 | 87,360 | 33,374 | 23,344 | 29,836 | 806 |
| 2024 | 86,704 | 31,319 | 23,841 | 30,630 | 914 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−526 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −9,561 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,443 in average income, against $81,946 for residents who stayed — 41% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.8 on average — 15 points more Republican-leaning than Black Hawk County, IA itself (D+1.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bremer County, IA200R+22.1
- Linn County, IA143D+9.9
- Polk County, IA127D+10.8
- Buchanan County, IA123R+28.1
- Grundy County, IA113R+41.7
- Butler County, IA87R+45.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Polk County, IA244
- Bremer County, IA208
- Linn County, IA176
- Buchanan County, IA99
- Grundy County, IA91
- Johnson County, IA80
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −351 |
| 2012 | −348 |
| 2013 | +166 |
| 2014 | −451 |
| 2015 | −587 |
| 2016 | −1,499 |
| 2017 | −1,548 |
| 2018 | −1,190 |
| 2019 | −1,129 |
| 2021 | −830 |
| 2022 | −1,115 |
| 2023 | −9 |
| 2024 | −144 |
| 2025 | −526 |
Home to Waterloo and the University of Northern Iowa, Black Hawk County sits at the intersection of a mid-size industrial city and a college town — a combination that has kept its presidential margins razor-thin in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 22.4 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 58.5 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.2 points.
A population of 131,049, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,417 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Linn County and Rock County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Linn County
Iowa
93.3twin score
2004–2016 trajectory≠ Swedish ancestry
Rock County
Wisconsin
93.2twin score
2004–2020 trajectory≠ Polish ancestry
Scott County
Iowa
90.8twin score
2008–2020 trajectory≠ Swedish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Black Hawk County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19013/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Black Hawk County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Black Hawk County, Iowa vote in 2024?
In 2024, Black Hawk County, Iowa voted Democratic by 1.2 points (D+1.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 62,906 votes cast, 31,299 went Democratic and 30,572 went Republican.
When did Black Hawk County, Iowa last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Black Hawk County, Iowa voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Black Hawk County, Iowa?
Black Hawk County, Iowa has a population of 131,049 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Black Hawk County, Iowa?
Median household income in Black Hawk County, Iowa is $66,417 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Black Hawk County, Iowa?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Black Hawk County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 15 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.