HarrisDemocratic39.2%2,332TrumpRepublican58.3%3,473OtherAll other candidates1.4%86
R+19.2- Lead
- 1,141
- Total
- 5,953
- vs nation
- R+17.7
- Turnout
- 65.7%
Akashiccounty
Sierra County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.7% of 9,099 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic38.1%2,265TrumpRepublican59.6%3,542JorgensenLibertarian1.1%66
R+21.5- Lead
- 1,277
- Total
- 5,945
- vs nation
- R+25.9
- Turnout
- 66.4%
ClintonDemocratic31.1%1,612TrumpRepublican58.1%3,010JohnsonLibertarian8.5%442
R+27.0- Lead
- 1,398
- Total
- 5,181
- vs nation
- R+29.1
- Turnout
- 55.4%
ObamaDemocratic38.5%1,964RomneyRepublican57.4%2,928GRAYLibertarian3.4%175
R+18.9- Lead
- 964
- Total
- 5,102
- vs nation
- R+22.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic42.9%2,352McCainRepublican55.0%3,017OtherAll other candidates2.1%116
R+12.1- Lead
- 665
- Total
- 5,485
- vs nation
- R+19.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic37.3%1,926BushRepublican61.3%3,162OtherAll other candidates1.3%69
R+24.0- Lead
- 1,236
- Total
- 5,157
- vs nation
- R+21.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic36.8%1,689BushRepublican59.3%2,721NaderGreen2.9%132
R+22.5- Lead
- 1,032
- Total
- 4,586
- vs nation
- R+23.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.8%2,154DoleRepublican44.5%2,140PerotReform9.0%431
D+0.3- Lead
- 14
- Total
- 4,805
- vs nation
- R+8.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+19.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 11,5002024 5-year
- Median household income
- $41,6002024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 63.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 29.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+38.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- La Paz County, AZ · twin score 79.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.7%5,977 participants ÷ 9,099 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.9%–57.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,220 | 9,424 | 55.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,732 | 9,103 | 52.0% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,980 | 9,003 | 66.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,947 | 9,392 | 52.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,977 | 9,099 | 65.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
21 precincts · 5,867 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000002000002 | 259 | 582 | 6 | 847 | 30.6% | 68.7% | R+38.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000012000012 | 409 | 407 | 17 | 833 | 49.1% | 48.9% | D+0.2 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 284 | 423 | 8 | 715 | 39.7% | 59.2% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 276 | 308 | 16 | 600 | 46.0% | 51.3% | R+5.3 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 243 | 314 | 6 | 563 | 43.2% | 55.8% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 300 | 247 | 0 | 547 | 54.8% | 45.2% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 143 | 359 | 9 | 511 | 28.0% | 70.3% | R+42.3 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 127 | 275 | 0 | 402 | 31.6% | 68.4% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 84 | 252 | 0 | 336 | 25.0% | 75.0% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 55 | 185 | 0 | 240 | 22.9% | 77.1% | R+54.2 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 137 | 46 | 0 | 183 | 74.9% | 25.1% | D+49.7 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 90 | 16.7% | 83.3% | R+66.7 |
| Sierra County Precinct 135_350511 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 235_350512 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 335_350513 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 435_350514 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 535_350515 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 635_350516 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 735_350517 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 835_350518 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sierra County Precinct 935_350519 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +28.2% |
| 1916 | +3.4% |
| 1920 | −14.5% |
| 1924 | −6.6% |
| 1928 | −7.7% |
| 1932 | +38.4% |
| 1936 | +24.8% |
| 1940 | +5.6% |
| 1944 | −4.9% |
| 1948 | +4.3% |
| 1952 | −27.4% |
| 1956 | −30.6% |
| 1960 | −21.5% |
| 1964 | +4.2% |
| 1968 | −24.4% |
| 1972 | −37.1% |
| 1976 | −3.1% |
| 1980 | −29.6% |
| 1984 | −32.9% |
| 1988 | −21.9% |
| 1992 | +4.7% |
| 1996 | +0.3% |
| 2000 | −22.5% |
| 2004 | −24.0% |
| 2008 | −12.1% |
| 2012 | −18.9% |
| 2016 | −27.0% |
| 2020 | −21.5% |
| 2024 | −19.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 42.2%2,456 | 57.8%3,370 | 5,826 |
| 2020 | R | 41.0%2,381 | 59.0%3,425 | 5,806 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+18.5
Presidential vote · 2024R+19.2
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 0.7 points.
8,498 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+162 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +808 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,110 in average income, against $45,690 for residents who stayed — 5% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+13.1 on average — 32 points more Democratic-leaning than Sierra County, NM itself (R+19.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Doña Ana County, NM69D+9.8
- Bernalillo County, NM29D+21.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Doña Ana County, NM45
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +123 |
| 2012 | −7 |
| 2013 | −188 |
| 2014 | −119 |
| 2015 | +76 |
| 2016 | +49 |
| 2017 | +119 |
| 2018 | +14 |
| 2019 | −20 |
| 2021 | +184 |
| 2022 | +170 |
| 2023 | +214 |
| 2024 | +31 |
| 2025 | +162 |
Sierra County's roughly 13,000 residents are spread across high desert and mountain terrain along the Rio Grande, and it has delivered Republican presidential margins in the high teens to low twenties in each of the last three cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 38.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 37.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.3 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.2 points.
A population of 11,500, a 63% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $41,600 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of La Paz County and Plumas County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
La Paz County
Arizona
79.5twin score
median age% Latinomedian income
Plumas County
California
77.1twin score
12-yr trend2024 margin% unaffiliated≠ % Latino
Jeff Davis County
Texas
75.7twin score
median age12-yr trend% Latino≠ college share
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Sierra County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Sierra County
New Mexico at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Sierra County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Sierra County, New Mexico voted Republican by 19.2 points (R+19.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,953 votes cast, 2,332 went Democratic and 3,473 went Republican.
When did Sierra County, New Mexico last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Sierra County, New Mexico voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Sierra County, New Mexico?
Sierra County, New Mexico has a population of 11,500 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Sierra County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Sierra County, New Mexico is $41,600 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Sierra County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Sierra County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.