HarrisDemocratic18.5%3,930TrumpRepublican80.1%16,997OtherAll other candidates1.1%226
R+61.6- Lead
- 13,067
- Total
- 21,209
- vs nation
- R+60.1
- Turnout
- 49.9%
Akashiccounty
Lea County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 49.9% of 42,635 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic19.4%4,061TrumpRepublican79.0%16,531JorgensenLibertarian1.0%214
R+59.6- Lead
- 12,470
- Total
- 20,918
- vs nation
- R+64.1
- Turnout
- 50.8%
ClintonDemocratic22.2%3,930TrumpRepublican70.5%12,495JohnsonLibertarian6.2%1,098
R+48.4- Lead
- 8,565
- Total
- 17,712
- vs nation
- R+50.4
- Turnout
- 43.7%
ObamaDemocratic24.0%4,080RomneyRepublican73.7%12,548GRAYLibertarian1.8%310
R+49.8- Lead
- 8,468
- Total
- 17,015
- vs nation
- R+53.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic27.4%5,108McCainRepublican71.6%13,347OtherAll other candidates1.0%190
R+44.2- Lead
- 8,239
- Total
- 18,645
- vs nation
- R+51.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic20.1%3,646BushRepublican79.4%14,430OtherAll other candidates0.6%105
R+59.3- Lead
- 10,784
- Total
- 18,181
- vs nation
- R+56.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic27.0%3,855BushRepublican71.2%10,157NaderGreen1.2%169
R+44.2- Lead
- 6,302
- Total
- 14,256
- vs nation
- R+44.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic36.8%5,393DoleRepublican52.2%7,661PerotReform10.0%1,465
R+15.5- Lead
- 2,268
- Total
- 14,666
- vs nation
- R+24.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 73,7332024 5-year
- Median household income
- $68,0152024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 31.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 62.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+76.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Deaf Smith County, TX · twin score 94.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 49.9%21,284 participants ÷ 42,635 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- +2.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 32.3%–36.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 17,816 | 40,751 | 43.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 13,991 | 41,438 | 33.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 20,979 | 41,298 | 50.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 14,025 | 42,261 | 33.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 21,284 | 42,635 | 49.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
98 precincts · 20,982 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000010000010 | 92 | 627 | 0 | 719 | 12.8% | 87.2% | R+74.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000027000027 | 77 | 573 | 0 | 650 | 11.8% | 88.2% | R+76.3 |
| Precinct -000072000072 | 75 | 549 | 8 | 632 | 11.9% | 86.9% | R+75.0 |
| Precinct -000043000043 | 128 | 452 | 7 | 587 | 21.8% | 77.0% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -000020000020 | 99 | 461 | 0 | 560 | 17.7% | 82.3% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct -000057000057 | 61 | 481 | 0 | 542 | 11.3% | 88.7% | R+77.5 |
| Precinct -000031000031 | 125 | 409 | 0 | 534 | 23.4% | 76.6% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 87 | 437 | 8 | 532 | 16.4% | 82.1% | R+65.8 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 86 | 442 | 0 | 528 | 16.3% | 83.7% | R+67.4 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 70 | 446 | 8 | 524 | 13.4% | 85.1% | R+71.8 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 52 | 465 | 6 | 523 | 9.9% | 88.9% | R+79.0 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 99 | 419 | 0 | 518 | 19.1% | 80.9% | R+61.8 |
| Precinct -000071000071 | 80 | 436 | 0 | 516 | 15.5% | 84.5% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct -000026000026 | 71 | 427 | 0 | 498 | 14.3% | 85.7% | R+71.5 |
| Precinct -000041000041 | 119 | 377 | 0 | 496 | 24.0% | 76.0% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 111 | 370 | 0 | 481 | 23.1% | 76.9% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -000037000037 | 68 | 412 | 0 | 480 | 14.2% | 85.8% | R+71.7 |
| Precinct -000040000040 | 105 | 363 | 0 | 468 | 22.4% | 77.6% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct -000033000033 | 107 | 358 | 0 | 465 | 23.0% | 77.0% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 64 | 396 | 0 | 460 | 13.9% | 86.1% | R+72.2 |
| Precinct -000019000019 | 63 | 385 | 0 | 448 | 14.1% | 85.9% | R+71.9 |
| Precinct -000073000073 | 62 | 378 | 0 | 440 | 14.1% | 85.9% | R+71.8 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 68 | 371 | 0 | 439 | 15.5% | 84.5% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct -000032000032 | 94 | 345 | 0 | 439 | 21.4% | 78.6% | R+57.2 |
| Precinct -000042000042 | 71 | 356 | 0 | 427 | 16.6% | 83.4% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 66 | 357 | 0 | 423 | 15.6% | 84.4% | R+68.8 |
| Precinct -000044000044 | 88 | 308 | 7 | 403 | 21.8% | 76.4% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 78 | 316 | 6 | 400 | 19.5% | 79.0% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct -000038000038 | 63 | 315 | 0 | 378 | 16.7% | 83.3% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -000061000061 | 115 | 248 | 0 | 363 | 31.7% | 68.3% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -000036000036 | 107 | 251 | 0 | 358 | 29.9% | 70.1% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 71 | 276 | 0 | 347 | 20.5% | 79.5% | R+59.1 |
| Precinct -000056000056 | 31 | 314 | 0 | 345 | 9.0% | 91.0% | R+82.0 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 80 | 262 | 0 | 342 | 23.4% | 76.6% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 38 | 284 | 0 | 322 | 11.8% | 88.2% | R+76.4 |
| Precinct -000039000039 | 39 | 283 | 0 | 322 | 12.1% | 87.9% | R+75.8 |
| Precinct -000030000030 | 67 | 244 | 0 | 311 | 21.5% | 78.5% | R+56.9 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 57 | 232 | 6 | 295 | 19.3% | 78.6% | R+59.3 |
| Precinct -000053000053 | 135 | 155 | 0 | 290 | 46.6% | 53.4% | R+6.9 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 58 | 229 | 0 | 287 | 20.2% | 79.8% | R+59.6 |
| Precinct -000074000074 | 26 | 244 | 0 | 270 | 9.6% | 90.4% | R+80.7 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 20 | 243 | 0 | 263 | 7.6% | 92.4% | R+84.8 |
| Precinct -000052000052 | 68 | 184 | 0 | 252 | 27.0% | 73.0% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 57 | 193 | 0 | 250 | 22.8% | 77.2% | R+54.4 |
| Precinct -000062000062 | 26 | 217 | 0 | 243 | 10.7% | 89.3% | R+78.6 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 78 | 150 | 0 | 228 | 34.2% | 65.8% | R+31.6 |
| Precinct -000054000054 | 57 | 163 | 0 | 220 | 25.9% | 74.1% | R+48.2 |
| Precinct -000051000051 | 70 | 139 | 0 | 209 | 33.5% | 66.5% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct -000035000035 | 56 | 146 | 0 | 202 | 27.7% | 72.3% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct -000034000034 | 56 | 121 | 0 | 177 | 31.6% | 68.4% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -000055000055 | 50 | 117 | 0 | 167 | 29.9% | 70.1% | R+40.1 |
| Precinct -000050000050 | 18 | 142 | 0 | 160 | 11.3% | 88.8% | R+77.5 |
| Precinct -000058000058 | 90 | 58 | 0 | 148 | 60.8% | 39.2% | D+21.6 |
| Precinct -000059000059 | 30 | 49 | 0 | 79 | 38.0% | 62.0% | R+24.1 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Lea County Precinct 1035_3502510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1135_3502511 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1235_3502512 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1335_3502513 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1435_3502514 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1535_3502515 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1635_3502516 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1735_3502517 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 1835_3502518 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 235_350252 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2035_3502520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2135_3502521 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2235_3502522 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2335_3502523 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2435_3502524 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2535_3502525 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2635_3502526 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2735_3502527 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2835_3502528 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 2935_3502529 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 335_350253 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3035_3502530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3135_3502531 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3235_3502532 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3335_3502533 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3435_3502534 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3535_3502535 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 3635_3502536 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 4135_3502541 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 4235_3502542 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 4335_3502543 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 4435_3502544 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 5135_3502551 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 5235_3502552 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 5335_3502553 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 5435_3502554 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 5535_3502555 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 6135_3502561 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 6235_3502562 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 7135_3502571 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 7235_3502572 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 7335_3502573 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lea County Precinct 7435_3502574 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1920–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1920 | +47.3% |
| 1924 | +56.3% |
| 1928 | −6.2% |
| 1932 | +76.2% |
| 1936 | +74.7% |
| 1940 | +53.8% |
| 1944 | +41.1% |
| 1948 | +57.0% |
| 1952 | +4.7% |
| 1956 | +4.0% |
| 1960 | +1.7% |
| 1964 | +11.5% |
| 1968 | −17.3% |
| 1972 | −55.4% |
| 1976 | −14.5% |
| 1980 | −35.3% |
| 1984 | −51.7% |
| 1988 | −31.4% |
| 1992 | −17.6% |
| 1996 | −15.5% |
| 2000 | −44.2% |
| 2004 | −59.3% |
| 2008 | −44.2% |
| 2012 | −49.8% |
| 2016 | −48.4% |
| 2020 | −59.6% |
| 2024 | −61.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 36 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 22.7%4,609 | 77.3%15,684 | 20,293 |
| 2020 | R | 22.4%4,558 | 77.6%15,772 | 20,330 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+35.1
Presidential vote · 2024R+61.6
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 27 points more Democratic.
38,157 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−386 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −4,682 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,589 in average income, against $76,136 for residents who stayed — 36% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+25.3 on average — 36 points more Democratic-leaning than Lea County, NM itself (R+61.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lubbock County, TX64R+39.5
- El Paso County, TX63D+15.1
- Bernalillo County, NM49D+21.0
- Gaines County, TX46R+82.6
- Eddy County, NM45R+55.8
- Chaves County, NM41R+44.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lubbock County, TX141
- Midland County, TX67
- El Paso County, TX55
- Ector County, TX49
- Eddy County, NM47
- Gaines County, TX44
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −165 |
| 2012 | +523 |
| 2013 | +1,311 |
| 2014 | +870 |
| 2015 | +462 |
| 2016 | −1,943 |
| 2017 | −1,864 |
| 2018 | −97 |
| 2019 | +923 |
| 2021 | −1,965 |
| 2022 | −1,450 |
| 2023 | −620 |
| 2024 | −281 |
| 2025 | −386 |
Lea County's economy runs on petroleum extraction, and its electorate has returned Republican presidential margins above 60 points in recent cycles, making it a consistent outlier in a state that otherwise trends competitive to Democratic at the statewide level.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 61.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.6 points.
A population of 73,733, a 31% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,015 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Deaf Smith County and Ector County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Deaf Smith County
Texas
94.8twin score
% Latino2000–2004 trajectory% White
Ector County
Texas
94.5twin score
% Latino% White2004–2008 trajectory≠ elasticity
Bailey County
Texas
94.4twin score
% Latino2000–2004 trajectory% White≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lea County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35025/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Lea County
New Mexico at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Lea County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lea County, New Mexico voted Republican by 61.6 points (R+61.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 21,209 votes cast, 3,930 went Democratic and 16,997 went Republican.
When did Lea County, New Mexico last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lea County, New Mexico voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Lea County, New Mexico?
Lea County, New Mexico has a population of 73,733 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lea County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Lea County, New Mexico is $68,015 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Lea County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lea County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.