HarrisDemocratic29.8%3,033TrumpRepublican68.3%6,942OtherAll other candidates1.4%143
R+38.5- Lead
- 3,909
- Total
- 10,165
- vs nation
- R+37.0
- Turnout
- 62.4%
Akashiccounty
Lincoln County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 62.4% of 16,368 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic31.0%3,194TrumpRepublican67.4%6,942JorgensenLibertarian1.1%113
R+36.4- Lead
- 3,748
- Total
- 10,306
- vs nation
- R+40.8
- Turnout
- 67.2%
ClintonDemocratic26.2%2,331TrumpRepublican66.2%5,896JohnsonLibertarian6.3%560
R+40.0- Lead
- 3,565
- Total
- 8,902
- vs nation
- R+42.1
- Turnout
- 58.4%
ObamaDemocratic31.8%2,942RomneyRepublican64.5%5,961GRAYLibertarian3.2%297
R+32.7- Lead
- 3,019
- Total
- 9,242
- vs nation
- R+36.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic36.5%3,535McCainRepublican61.9%6,001OtherAll other candidates1.7%160
R+25.4- Lead
- 2,466
- Total
- 9,696
- vs nation
- R+32.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic31.3%2,822BushRepublican67.3%6,070OtherAll other candidates1.4%122
R+36.0- Lead
- 3,248
- Total
- 9,014
- vs nation
- R+33.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic29.9%2,027BushRepublican65.8%4,458NaderGreen2.5%168
R+35.9- Lead
- 2,431
- Total
- 6,772
- vs nation
- R+36.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic34.5%2,209DoleRepublican53.0%3,396PerotReform10.4%666
R+18.5- Lead
- 1,187
- Total
- 6,411
- vs nation
- R+27.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+38.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 20,2242024 5-year
- Median household income
- $53,3032024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 33.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+30.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.9 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Catron County, NM · twin score 77.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 62.4%10,213 participants ÷ 16,368 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- +0.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 46.7%–51.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,961 | 15,345 | 58.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 7,903 | 15,034 | 52.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 10,348 | 15,397 | 67.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,406 | 16,321 | 51.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 10,213 | 16,368 | 62.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
50 precincts · 10,022 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000006000006 | 248 | 449 | 7 | 704 | 35.2% | 63.8% | R+28.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000026000026 | 164 | 467 | 14 | 645 | 25.4% | 72.4% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 185 | 365 | 6 | 556 | 33.3% | 65.6% | R+32.4 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 126 | 420 | 0 | 546 | 23.1% | 76.9% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 183 | 336 | 6 | 525 | 34.9% | 64.0% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 121 | 363 | 6 | 490 | 24.7% | 74.1% | R+49.4 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 191 | 263 | 0 | 454 | 42.1% | 57.9% | R+15.9 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 143 | 298 | 0 | 441 | 32.4% | 67.6% | R+35.1 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 124 | 313 | 0 | 437 | 28.4% | 71.6% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 157 | 271 | 8 | 436 | 36.0% | 62.2% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 104 | 313 | 0 | 417 | 24.9% | 75.1% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 145 | 271 | 0 | 416 | 34.9% | 65.1% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 83 | 272 | 0 | 355 | 23.4% | 76.6% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 63 | 290 | 0 | 353 | 17.8% | 82.2% | R+64.3 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 138 | 214 | 0 | 352 | 39.2% | 60.8% | R+21.6 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 137 | 205 | 0 | 342 | 40.1% | 59.9% | R+19.9 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 89 | 184 | 0 | 273 | 32.6% | 67.4% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -000020000020 | 79 | 172 | 0 | 251 | 31.5% | 68.5% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 48 | 195 | 0 | 243 | 19.8% | 80.2% | R+60.5 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 79 | 149 | 0 | 228 | 34.6% | 65.4% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 42 | 175 | 0 | 217 | 19.4% | 80.6% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -000019000019 | 41 | 172 | 0 | 213 | 19.2% | 80.8% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 98 | 110 | 0 | 208 | 47.1% | 52.9% | R+5.8 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 33 | 166 | 0 | 199 | 16.6% | 83.4% | R+66.8 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 71 | 102 | 0 | 173 | 41.0% | 59.0% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 50 | 113 | 0 | 163 | 30.7% | 69.3% | R+38.7 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 33 | 127 | 0 | 160 | 20.6% | 79.4% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 50 | 83 | 0 | 133 | 37.6% | 62.4% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 92 | 8.7% | 91.3% | R+82.6 |
| Lincoln County Precinct 135_350271 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1035_3502710 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1135_3502711 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1235_3502712 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1335_3502713 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1435_3502714 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1535_3502715 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1635_3502716 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1735_3502717 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1835_3502718 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 1935_3502719 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 235_350272 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 2035_3502720 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 2135_3502721 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 335_350273 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 435_350274 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 535_350275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 635_350276 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 735_350277 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 835_350278 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln County Precinct 935_350279 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +0.8% |
| 1916 | −1.4% |
| 1920 | −16.1% |
| 1924 | −11.3% |
| 1928 | −28.9% |
| 1932 | +30.8% |
| 1936 | +12.1% |
| 1940 | −0.9% |
| 1944 | −4.0% |
| 1948 | −5.6% |
| 1952 | −29.3% |
| 1956 | −29.7% |
| 1960 | −16.6% |
| 1964 | −5.8% |
| 1968 | −38.7% |
| 1972 | −55.9% |
| 1976 | −24.0% |
| 1980 | −43.0% |
| 1984 | −55.2% |
| 1988 | −34.4% |
| 1992 | −16.0% |
| 1996 | −18.5% |
| 2000 | −35.9% |
| 2004 | −36.0% |
| 2008 | −25.4% |
| 2012 | −32.7% |
| 2016 | −40.0% |
| 2020 | −36.4% |
| 2024 | −38.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 31.1%3,071 | 68.9%6,815 | 9,886 |
| 2020 | R | 32.8%3,323 | 67.2%6,808 | 10,131 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+37.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+38.5
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 1.3 points.
14,493 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−64 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −688 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,628 in average income, against $67,141 for residents who stayed — 8% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+5.4 on average — 33 points more Democratic-leaning than Lincoln County, NM itself (R+38.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Doña Ana County, NM49D+9.8
- Otero County, NM48R+27.0
- Bernalillo County, NM37D+21.0
- Chaves County, NM31R+44.8
- El Paso County, TX26D+15.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Otero County, NM85
- Doña Ana County, NM41
- Bernalillo County, NM35
- El Paso County, TX31
- Chaves County, NM25
- Eddy County, NM22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −61 |
| 2012 | −208 |
| 2013 | −202 |
| 2014 | −376 |
| 2015 | −262 |
| 2016 | +30 |
| 2017 | +111 |
| 2018 | +75 |
| 2019 | +71 |
| 2021 | +205 |
| 2022 | +88 |
| 2023 | −183 |
| 2024 | +88 |
| 2025 | −64 |
Lincoln County stretches across the Sacramento Mountains and the historic Billy the Kid corridor, drawing a sparse, rural electorate that has delivered Republican presidential margins above 35 points in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 30.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 55.9 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.5 points.
A population of 20,224, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $53,303 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Catron County and Aransas County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Catron County
New Mexico
77.8twin score
12-yr trend% Catholic2000–2004 trajectory≠ median age
Aransas County
Texas
76.7twin score
median age2000–2004 trajectory% Latino≠ American ancestry
Sierra County
New Mexico
73.9twin score
median age% Latino12-yr trend≠ college share
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lincoln County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35027/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Lincoln County
New Mexico at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Lincoln County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lincoln County, New Mexico voted Republican by 38.5 points (R+38.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 10,165 votes cast, 3,033 went Democratic and 6,942 went Republican.
When did Lincoln County, New Mexico last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lincoln County, New Mexico voted Democratic was 1936.
How many people live in Lincoln County, New Mexico?
Lincoln County, New Mexico has a population of 20,224 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lincoln County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Lincoln County, New Mexico is $53,303 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Lincoln County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lincoln County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.