HarrisDemocratic39.4%3,176TrumpRepublican58.3%4,698OtherAll other candidates1.4%115
R+18.9- Lead
- 1,522
- Total
- 8,056
- vs nation
- R+17.4
- Turnout
- 48.5%
Akashiccounty
Luna County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 48.5% of 16,724 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic44.0%3,563TrumpRepublican54.4%4,408JorgensenLibertarian0.9%73
R+10.4- Lead
- 845
- Total
- 8,103
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- 53.0%
ClintonDemocratic43.8%3,195TrumpRepublican47.7%3,478JohnsonLibertarian6.6%481
R+3.9- Lead
- 283
- Total
- 7,295
- vs nation
- R+6.0
- Turnout
- 48.4%
ObamaDemocratic47.8%3,583RomneyRepublican48.9%3,670GRAYLibertarian2.5%184
R+1.2- Lead
- 87
- Total
- 7,500
- vs nation
- R+5.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic51.7%4,311McCainRepublican46.4%3,870OtherAll other candidates1.9%159
D+5.3- Lead
- 441
- Total
- 8,340
- vs nation
- R+2.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.0%3,340BushRepublican54.8%4,164OtherAll other candidates1.2%89
R+10.9- Lead
- 824
- Total
- 7,593
- vs nation
- R+8.4
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic45.0%2,975BushRepublican51.3%3,395NaderGreen2.8%186
R+6.4- Lead
- 420
- Total
- 6,612
- vs nation
- R+6.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic47.4%3,001DoleRepublican41.4%2,616PerotReform9.5%598
D+6.1- Lead
- 385
- Total
- 6,326
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 25,6112024 5-year
- Median household income
- $36,4192024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 28.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 67.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+46.4 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+29.9 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Kleberg County, TX · twin score 94.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 48.5%8,110 participants ÷ 16,724 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 32.1%–36.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 7,368 | 15,223 | 48.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 6,224 | 15,025 | 41.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 8,162 | 15,387 | 53.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 5,924 | 16,167 | 36.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 8,110 | 16,724 | 48.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
30 precincts · 7,941 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000013000013 | 208 | 432 | 12 | 652 | 31.9% | 66.3% | R+34.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000014000014 | 229 | 373 | 9 | 611 | 37.5% | 61.0% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 194 | 384 | 12 | 590 | 32.9% | 65.1% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 246 | 288 | 6 | 540 | 45.6% | 53.3% | R+7.8 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 234 | 299 | 0 | 533 | 43.9% | 56.1% | R+12.2 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 247 | 263 | 9 | 519 | 47.6% | 50.7% | R+3.1 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 258 | 243 | 0 | 501 | 51.5% | 48.5% | D+3.0 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 241 | 241 | 0 | 482 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 143 | 324 | 0 | 467 | 30.6% | 69.4% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 178 | 283 | 0 | 461 | 38.6% | 61.4% | R+22.8 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 187 | 229 | 10 | 426 | 43.9% | 53.8% | R+9.9 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 197 | 218 | 9 | 424 | 46.5% | 51.4% | R+5.0 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 156 | 250 | 0 | 406 | 38.4% | 61.6% | R+23.2 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 113 | 244 | 0 | 357 | 31.7% | 68.3% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 134 | 212 | 0 | 346 | 38.7% | 61.3% | R+22.5 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 73 | 197 | 0 | 270 | 27.0% | 73.0% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 90 | 145 | 0 | 235 | 38.3% | 61.7% | R+23.4 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 48 | 73 | 0 | 121 | 39.7% | 60.3% | R+20.7 |
| Luna County Precinct 135_350291 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 1035_3502910 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 1135_3502911 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 1235_3502912 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 1335_3502913 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 1435_3502914 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 235_350292 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 335_350293 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 435_350294 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 535_350295 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 635_350296 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Luna County Precinct 835_350298 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +46.4% |
| 1916 | +29.9% |
| 1920 | +8.9% |
| 1924 | −6.9% |
| 1928 | −14.1% |
| 1932 | +42.2% |
| 1936 | +29.3% |
| 1940 | +13.1% |
| 1944 | +12.6% |
| 1948 | +26.6% |
| 1952 | −12.8% |
| 1956 | −0.7% |
| 1960 | +3.8% |
| 1964 | +15.6% |
| 1968 | −13.2% |
| 1972 | −29.9% |
| 1976 | −1.6% |
| 1980 | −18.8% |
| 1984 | −23.4% |
| 1988 | −5.3% |
| 1992 | +7.5% |
| 1996 | +6.1% |
| 2000 | −6.4% |
| 2004 | −10.9% |
| 2008 | +5.3% |
| 2012 | −1.2% |
| 2016 | −3.9% |
| 2020 | −10.4% |
| 2024 | −18.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 46.7%3,653 | 53.3%4,171 | 7,824 |
| 2020 | R | 48.8%3,854 | 51.2%4,045 | 7,899 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+0.7
Presidential vote · 2024R+18.9
Luna County, NM registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 20-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
13,925 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−219 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,576 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $33,527 in average income, against $42,011 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+7.3 on average — 26 points more Democratic-leaning than Luna County, NM itself (R+18.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Doña Ana County, NM69D+9.8
- Maricopa County, AZ50R+3.5
- San Diego County, CA25D+16.8
- Grant County, NM22D+5.1
- El Paso County, TX22D+15.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Doña Ana County, NM109
- San Diego County, CA42
- Maricopa County, AZ31
- El Paso County, TX27
- Grant County, NM20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −58 |
| 2012 | −270 |
| 2013 | −432 |
| 2014 | −260 |
| 2015 | −213 |
| 2016 | −124 |
| 2017 | −351 |
| 2018 | −298 |
| 2019 | −247 |
| 2021 | +31 |
| 2022 | +217 |
| 2023 | −342 |
| 2024 | −10 |
| 2025 | −219 |
Luna County sits along the U.S.–Mexico border in southwestern New Mexico, where a sparse, agriculture-rooted population has delivered Republican presidential margins in the high teens for several cycles running.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 46.4 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 29.9 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 8.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.9 points.
A population of 25,611, a 28% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $36,419 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Kleberg County and Valencia County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Kleberg County
Texas
94.9twin score
% Latino% Catholic% White≠ median income
Valencia County
New Mexico
93.9twin score
% Latino% White% Catholic≠ median income
Uvalde County
Texas
92.7twin score
% Latino% Whiteelasticity≠ % Catholic
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Luna County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35029/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Luna County
New Mexico at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Luna County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Luna County, New Mexico voted Republican by 18.9 points (R+18.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,056 votes cast, 3,176 went Democratic and 4,698 went Republican.
When did Luna County, New Mexico last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Luna County, New Mexico voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Luna County, New Mexico?
Luna County, New Mexico has a population of 25,611 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Luna County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Luna County, New Mexico is $36,419 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Luna County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Luna County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 13 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.