HarrisDemocratic40.9%13,609TrumpRepublican57.3%19,057OtherAll other candidates1.3%417
R+16.4- Lead
- 5,448
- Total
- 33,277
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- 58.7%
Akashiccounty
Valencia County, NM
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.7% of 56,880 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic44.2%14,263TrumpRepublican53.8%17,364JorgensenLibertarian1.3%406
R+9.6- Lead
- 3,101
- Total
- 32,277
- vs nation
- R+14.1
- Turnout
- 58.3%
ClintonDemocratic39.3%10,841TrumpRepublican47.9%13,215JohnsonLibertarian11.0%3,046
R+8.6- Lead
- 2,374
- Total
- 27,592
- vs nation
- R+10.7
- Turnout
- 51.8%
ObamaDemocratic48.7%13,511RomneyRepublican46.3%12,825GRAYLibertarian4.5%1,240
D+2.5- Lead
- 686
- Total
- 27,728
- vs nation
- R+1.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic53.2%15,366McCainRepublican45.5%13,136OtherAll other candidates1.4%397
D+7.7- Lead
- 2,230
- Total
- 28,899
- vs nation
- D+0.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic43.3%11,270BushRepublican55.6%14,474OtherAll other candidates1.0%268
R+12.3- Lead
- 3,204
- Total
- 26,012
- vs nation
- R+9.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic45.9%9,819BushRepublican50.5%10,803NaderGreen2.9%615
R+4.6- Lead
- 984
- Total
- 21,377
- vs nation
- R+5.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic49.4%9,169DoleRepublican41.9%7,779PerotReform6.6%1,222
D+7.5- Lead
- 1,390
- Total
- 18,545
- vs nation
- R+1.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+16.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 78,4582024 5-year
- Median household income
- $58,9332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 30.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 60.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Luna County, NM · twin score 93.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.7%33,410 participants ÷ 56,880 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 46.1%–49.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 27,823 | 53,699 | 51.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 24,485 | 54,490 | 44.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 32,428 | 55,623 | 58.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 25,463 | 55,825 | 45.6% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 33,410 | 56,880 | 58.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
101 precincts · 32,860 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000042000042 | 438 | 621 | 9 | 1,068 | 41.0% | 58.1% | R+17.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000039000039 | 457 | 390 | 0 | 847 | 54.0% | 46.0% | D+7.9 |
| Precinct -000055000055 | 352 | 417 | 6 | 775 | 45.4% | 53.8% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 281 | 461 | 10 | 752 | 37.4% | 61.3% | R+23.9 |
| Precinct -000057000057 | 262 | 475 | 6 | 743 | 35.3% | 63.9% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -000038000038 | 289 | 417 | 6 | 712 | 40.6% | 58.6% | R+18.0 |
| Precinct -000048000048 | 324 | 376 | 7 | 707 | 45.8% | 53.2% | R+7.4 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 283 | 402 | 7 | 692 | 40.9% | 58.1% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -000047000047 | 292 | 382 | 8 | 682 | 42.8% | 56.0% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 297 | 376 | 8 | 681 | 43.6% | 55.2% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct -000058000058 | 265 | 401 | 12 | 678 | 39.1% | 59.1% | R+20.1 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 302 | 366 | 6 | 674 | 44.8% | 54.3% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 238 | 413 | 0 | 651 | 36.6% | 63.4% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 312 | 313 | 8 | 633 | 49.3% | 49.4% | R+0.2 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 179 | 445 | 0 | 624 | 28.7% | 71.3% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 242 | 373 | 7 | 622 | 38.9% | 60.0% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 251 | 350 | 10 | 611 | 41.1% | 57.3% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -000060000060 | 255 | 345 | 6 | 606 | 42.1% | 56.9% | R+14.9 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 221 | 371 | 0 | 592 | 37.3% | 62.7% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 202 | 369 | 6 | 577 | 35.0% | 64.0% | R+28.9 |
| Precinct -000062000062 | 251 | 324 | 0 | 575 | 43.7% | 56.3% | R+12.7 |
| Precinct -000030000030 | 201 | 368 | 0 | 569 | 35.3% | 64.7% | R+29.3 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 244 | 310 | 0 | 554 | 44.0% | 56.0% | R+11.9 |
| Precinct -000041000041 | 275 | 274 | 0 | 549 | 50.1% | 49.9% | D+0.2 |
| Precinct -000019000019 | 165 | 369 | 0 | 534 | 30.9% | 69.1% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 247 | 271 | 6 | 524 | 47.1% | 51.7% | R+4.6 |
| Precinct -000061000061 | 196 | 321 | 0 | 517 | 37.9% | 62.1% | R+24.2 |
| Precinct -000065000065 | 203 | 306 | 0 | 509 | 39.9% | 60.1% | R+20.2 |
| Precinct -000043000043 | 228 | 276 | 0 | 504 | 45.2% | 54.8% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 192 | 301 | 10 | 503 | 38.2% | 59.8% | R+21.7 |
| Precinct -000054000054 | 207 | 276 | 6 | 489 | 42.3% | 56.4% | R+14.1 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 204 | 284 | 0 | 488 | 41.8% | 58.2% | R+16.4 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 199 | 287 | 0 | 486 | 40.9% | 59.1% | R+18.1 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 206 | 260 | 9 | 475 | 43.4% | 54.7% | R+11.4 |
| Precinct -000064000064 | 185 | 289 | 0 | 474 | 39.0% | 61.0% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -000032000032 | 182 | 290 | 0 | 472 | 38.6% | 61.4% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct -000035000035 | 154 | 312 | 6 | 472 | 32.6% | 66.1% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct -000046000046 | 171 | 294 | 0 | 465 | 36.8% | 63.2% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -000052000052 | 179 | 274 | 7 | 460 | 38.9% | 59.6% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -000031000031 | 159 | 300 | 0 | 459 | 34.6% | 65.4% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -000053000053 | 150 | 282 | 8 | 440 | 34.1% | 64.1% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -000045000045 | 186 | 242 | 6 | 434 | 42.9% | 55.8% | R+12.9 |
| Precinct -000037000037 | 170 | 258 | 0 | 428 | 39.7% | 60.3% | R+20.6 |
| Precinct -000059000059 | 160 | 266 | 0 | 426 | 37.6% | 62.4% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct -000049000049 | 155 | 267 | 0 | 422 | 36.7% | 63.3% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 164 | 254 | 0 | 418 | 39.2% | 60.8% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct -000056000056 | 214 | 198 | 0 | 412 | 51.9% | 48.1% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 165 | 237 | 0 | 402 | 41.0% | 59.0% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -000044000044 | 182 | 219 | 0 | 401 | 45.4% | 54.6% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 167 | 215 | 0 | 382 | 43.7% | 56.3% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -000051000051 | 161 | 221 | 0 | 382 | 42.1% | 57.9% | R+15.7 |
| Precinct -000040000040 | 162 | 206 | 8 | 376 | 43.1% | 54.8% | R+11.7 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 166 | 202 | 0 | 368 | 45.1% | 54.9% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -000036000036 | 129 | 230 | 0 | 359 | 35.9% | 64.1% | R+28.1 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 155 | 184 | 6 | 345 | 44.9% | 53.3% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 228 | 114 | 0 | 342 | 66.7% | 33.3% | D+33.3 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 167 | 159 | 0 | 326 | 51.2% | 48.8% | D+2.5 |
| Precinct -000033000033 | 132 | 187 | 0 | 319 | 41.4% | 58.6% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -000026000026 | 138 | 145 | 0 | 283 | 48.8% | 51.2% | R+2.5 |
| Precinct -000034000034 | 105 | 177 | 0 | 282 | 37.2% | 62.8% | R+25.5 |
| Precinct -000063000063 | 89 | 178 | 0 | 267 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -000066000066 | 122 | 145 | 0 | 267 | 45.7% | 54.3% | R+8.6 |
| Precinct -000020000020 | 79 | 136 | 0 | 215 | 36.7% | 63.3% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 87 | 124 | 0 | 211 | 41.2% | 58.8% | R+17.5 |
| Precinct -000050000050 | 89 | 86 | 0 | 175 | 50.9% | 49.1% | D+1.7 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 97 | 76 | 0 | 173 | 56.1% | 43.9% | D+12.1 |
| Valencia County Precinct 135_350611 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1035_3506110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1135_3506111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1235_3506112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1335_3506113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1435_3506114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1535_3506115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1635_3506116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1735_3506117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1835_3506118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1935_3506119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 235_350612 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2035_3506120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2135_3506121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2335_3506123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2535_3506125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2635_3506126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2735_3506127 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2835_3506128 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2935_3506129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 335_350613 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3035_3506130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3135_3506131 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3235_3506132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3335_3506133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3435_3506134 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3535_3506135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3635_3506136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3735_3506137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 435_350614 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 535_350615 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 635_350616 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 735_350617 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 835_350618 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 935_350619 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | −63.1% |
| 1916 | −59.7% |
| 1920 | −49.6% |
| 1924 | −61.4% |
| 1928 | −59.8% |
| 1932 | −18.8% |
| 1936 | +6.3% |
| 1940 | −1.7% |
| 1944 | −5.8% |
| 1948 | −5.9% |
| 1952 | −7.0% |
| 1956 | −13.6% |
| 1960 | +17.7% |
| 1964 | +32.4% |
| 1968 | −1.4% |
| 1972 | −14.5% |
| 1976 | +4.3% |
| 1980 | −22.4% |
| 1984 | −21.9% |
| 1988 | −4.9% |
| 1992 | +7.1% |
| 1996 | +7.5% |
| 2000 | −4.6% |
| 2004 | −12.3% |
| 2008 | +7.7% |
| 2012 | +2.5% |
| 2016 | −8.6% |
| 2020 | −9.6% |
| 2024 | −16.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 44.3%14,417 | 55.7%18,121 | 32,538 |
| 2020 | R | 47.8%15,131 | 52.2%16,499 | 31,630 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+4.3
Presidential vote · 2024R+16.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 12 points more Democratic.
50,233 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,128 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +2,977 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,633 in average income, against $60,624 for residents who stayed — 10% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+17.5 on average — 34 points more Democratic-leaning than Valencia County, NM itself (R+16.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bernalillo County, NM957D+21.0
- Sandoval County, NM104D+5.8
- Socorro County, NM78R+3.7
- Santa Fe County, NM49D+48.9
- Maricopa County, AZ41R+3.5
- Cibola County, NM37D+1.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bernalillo County, NM701
- Socorro County, NM62
- Sandoval County, NM61
- Maricopa County, AZ36
- Cibola County, NM31
- Doña Ana County, NM27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −273 |
| 2012 | −549 |
| 2013 | −675 |
| 2014 | −773 |
| 2015 | −366 |
| 2016 | −196 |
| 2017 | +102 |
| 2018 | +316 |
| 2019 | +274 |
| 2021 | +937 |
| 2022 | +845 |
| 2023 | +847 |
| 2024 | +1,360 |
| 2025 | +1,128 |
Valencia County, anchored by Belen along the Rio Grande corridor south of Albuquerque, shifted from a reliably Democratic stronghold to an R+16 margin in 2024 — a swing driven largely by realignment among its majority-Hispanic working-class electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 63.1 points in 1912. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 16.4 points.
A population of 78,458, a 31% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,933 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Luna County and Cameron County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Luna County
New Mexico
93.9twin score
% Latino% White% Catholic≠ median income
Cameron County
Texas
93.7twin score
% Latinoelasticity% Catholic≠ 2016 margin
Kleberg County
Texas
92.9twin score
% Latino% White% Catholic≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Valencia County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35061/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Valencia County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Valencia County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Valencia County, New Mexico voted Republican by 16.4 points (R+16.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 33,277 votes cast, 13,609 went Democratic and 19,057 went Republican.
When did Valencia County, New Mexico last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Valencia County, New Mexico voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Valencia County, New Mexico?
Valencia County, New Mexico has a population of 78,458 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Valencia County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Valencia County, New Mexico is $58,933 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Valencia County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Valencia County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.