akashic
1876–2024
Valencia County, New Mexico
Valencia County·New Mexico

Valencia County votes the way the country votes.

A rural Rio Grande county trending sharply rightward over a decade

18762024·38 elections
Valencia County, New Mexico · AllenS · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+16
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
78,458
2024 ACS
Most similar
Luna County
NM · similarity 0.96
66 precincts · 33,277 votes cast
Trump · R+16
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−16.4%
13,60919,05733,277
2020R
−9.6%
14,26317,36432,277
2016R
−8.6%
10,84113,21527,592
2012D
+2.5%
13,51112,82527,728
2008D
+7.7%
15,36613,13628,899
2004R
−12.3%
11,27014,47426,012
2000R
−4.6%
9,81910,80321,377
1996D
+7.5%
9,1697,77918,545
1992D
+7.1%
7,4956,30516,768
1988R
−4.9%
7,1367,87415,200
1984R
−21.9%
5,3938,47414,049
1980R
−22.4%
6,88611,17719,142
1976D
+4.3%
8,5667,85116,553
1972R
−14.5%
6,1108,23914,688
1968R
−1.4%
5,5135,67611,947
1964D
+32.4%
7,7573,95011,757
1960D
+17.7%
7,0434,92911,976
1956R
−13.6%
3,5474,6638,218
1952R
−7.0%
3,3103,8107,125
1948R
−5.9%
2,9143,2806,227
1944R
−5.8%
2,4612,7655,229
1940R
−1.7%
3,3183,4366,760
1936D
+6.3%
3,3362,9416,291
1932R
−18.8%
2,2293,2635,507
1928R
−59.8%
8813,5004,382
1924R
−61.4%
6783,1834,080
1920R
−49.6%
9512,8393,806
1916R
−59.7%
3831,5401,937
1912R
−63.1%
2311,2631,635
1908
No data
1904
No data
1900
No data
1896
No data
1892
No data
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
0.9%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
35.3%
Other Christian
9.0%
Baptist
2.8%
Methodist
0.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
0.7%
Mainline Protestant
0.7%
Non-Christian
0.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 50.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Valencia County, anchored by Belen along the Rio Grande corridor south of Albuquerque, shifted from a reliably Democratic stronghold to an R+16 margin in 2024 — a swing driven largely by realignment among its majority-Hispanic working-class electorate.

The Democratic margin in Valencia County has rarely exceeded thirty-two points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded sixty-three points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by sixteen points.

Valencia County's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 48% non-Hispanic-white share, a 18% poverty rate, and a median household income of $58,933 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Luna County and Hidalgo County.