McKinley County, New Mexico: Bellwether county. In 2024, voted D+25%. Democratic peak: D+47 in 2012.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+25MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 70,4312024 5-year
- Median household income
- $47,6682024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 9.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+25 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Wilcox County, AL · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of McKinley CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for McKinley County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
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Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 15,711 | 9,364 | 25,867 | ||
| D | 18,029 | 7,801 | 26,486 | ||
| D | 13,576 | 5,104 | 21,703 | ||
| D | 15,841 | 5,546 | 21,929 | ||
| D | 16,572 | 6,382 | 23,207 | ||
| D | 13,051 | 7,351 | 20,623 | ||
| D | 10,281 | 5,070 | 15,879 | ||
| D | 10,124 | 4,470 | 15,526 | ||
| D | 9,405 | 4,720 | 15,531 | ||
| D | 9,595 | 5,694 | 15,467 | ||
| D | 7,915 | 6,557 | 14,643 | ||
| R | 4,869 | 7,329 | 12,934 | ||
| D | 6,856 | 4,617 | 11,593 | ||
| R | 5,124 | 5,366 | 10,789 | ||
| D | 4,491 | 4,376 | 9,573 | ||
| D | 6,913 | 2,965 | 10,000 | ||
| D | 5,599 | 4,262 | 9,893 | ||
| R | 3,331 | 4,450 | 7,811 | ||
| D | 3,097 | 3,091 | 6,207 | ||
| D | 2,995 | 2,109 | 5,149 | ||
| D | 2,210 | 1,547 | 3,760 | ||
| D | 2,525 | 1,701 | 4,232 | ||
| D | 2,526 | 1,404 | 3,944 | ||
| D | 2,096 | 1,373 | 3,489 | ||
| R | 1,247 | 2,075 | 3,335 | ||
| R | 1,150 | 1,653 | 3,226 | ||
| R | 989 | 1,525 | 2,541 | ||
| R | 550 | 669 | 1,226 | ||
| R | 224 | 264 | 732 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
2.1%
Irish
1.7%
English
1.4%
American
0.7%
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 34.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$47,668
McKinley County ranks in the bottom 25% of US counties.
McKinley County$47,668
New Mexico$64,059
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
33.2%
Nearly half of children live in poverty.
Children under 1842.5%
Working age (18–64)30.0%
Seniors (65+)27.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
51.1%
speak English only
Other languages42.9%
Spanish4.5%
Other Indo-European0.7%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 73.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
McKinley County, home to a large portion of the Navajo Nation, posts some of New Mexico's widest Democratic presidential margins — the 2024 gap exceeded 24 points — reflecting a predominantly Native American electorate with distinct policy priorities.
The Democratic margin in McKinley County has rarely exceeded forty-seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded twenty-five points. 2024 delivered the county to the Democratic candidate by twenty-five points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 10% non-Hispanic-white share, a 33% poverty rate, and a median household income of $47,668 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wilcox County and Sumter County.
Most similar counties
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
McKinley County, New Mexico — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://akashic.app/county/35031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More in New Mexico
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Frequently asked questions
How did McKinley County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, McKinley County, New Mexico voted Democratic by 24.5 points (D+25), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 25,867 votes cast, 15,711 went Democratic and 9,364 went Republican.
What is McKinley County, New Mexico's political archetype?
Akashic classifies McKinley County, New Mexico as a "Bellwether" county based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 21 times, Republican 8 times, and other 0 times.
When did McKinley County, New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which McKinley County, New Mexico voted Republican was 1980.
How many people live in McKinley County, New Mexico?
McKinley County, New Mexico has a population of 70,431 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in McKinley County, New Mexico?
Median household income in McKinley County, New Mexico is $47,668 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of McKinley County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in McKinley County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 8 went Republican. The county's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.