- Lead
- 6,347
- Total
- 25,867
- vs nation
- D+26.0
- Turnout
- 51.4%
McKinley County, NM
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 51.4% of 50,515 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 10,228
- Total
- 26,486
- vs nation
- D+34.2
- Turnout
- 52.8%
- Lead
- 8,472
- Total
- 21,703
- vs nation
- D+36.9
- Turnout
- 43.0%
- Lead
- 10,295
- Total
- 21,929
- vs nation
- D+43.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 10,190
- Total
- 23,207
- vs nation
- D+36.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,700
- Total
- 20,623
- vs nation
- D+30.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,211
- Total
- 15,879
- vs nation
- D+32.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,654
- Total
- 15,526
- vs nation
- D+27.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+24.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 70,4312024 5-year
- Population density
- 13 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 5,451 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $47,6682024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+46.9 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+24.8 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Sioux County, ND · twin score 95.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 51.4%25,987 participants ÷ 50,515 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.1%–40.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 21,934 | 51,038 | 43.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 18,373 | 50,645 | 36.3% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 26,626 | 50,444 | 52.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 19,527 | 50,742 | 38.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 25,987 | 50,515 | 51.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
129 precincts · 25,480 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000019000019 | 451 | 252 | 20 | 723 | 62.4% | 34.9% | D+27.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000020000020 | 373 | 261 | 15 | 649 | 57.5% | 40.2% | D+17.3 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 452 | 166 | 12 | 630 | 71.7% | 26.3% | D+45.4 |
| Precinct -000043000043 | 318 | 295 | 14 | 627 | 50.7% | 47.0% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 285 | 309 | 22 | 616 | 46.3% | 50.2% | R+3.9 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 270 | 319 | 13 | 602 | 44.9% | 53.0% | R+8.1 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 404 | 179 | 16 | 599 | 67.4% | 29.9% | D+37.6 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 437 | 147 | 6 | 590 | 74.1% | 24.9% | D+49.2 |
| Precinct -000054000054 | 325 | 252 | 6 | 583 | 55.7% | 43.2% | D+12.5 |
| Precinct -000033000033 | 327 | 219 | 10 | 556 | 58.8% | 39.4% | D+19.4 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 374 | 166 | 11 | 551 | 67.9% | 30.1% | D+37.7 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 325 | 208 | 12 | 545 | 59.6% | 38.2% | D+21.5 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 317 | 198 | 12 | 527 | 60.2% | 37.6% | D+22.6 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 381 | 133 | 10 | 524 | 72.7% | 25.4% | D+47.3 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 294 | 186 | 13 | 493 | 59.6% | 37.7% | D+21.9 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 260 | 222 | 10 | 492 | 52.8% | 45.1% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 376 | 107 | 8 | 491 | 76.6% | 21.8% | D+54.8 |
| Precinct -000058000058 | 258 | 228 | 0 | 486 | 53.1% | 46.9% | D+6.2 |
| Precinct -000031000031 | 259 | 208 | 10 | 477 | 54.3% | 43.6% | D+10.7 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 420 | 44 | 8 | 472 | 89.0% | 9.3% | D+79.7 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 279 | 173 | 17 | 469 | 59.5% | 36.9% | D+22.6 |
| Precinct -000053000053 | 318 | 140 | 7 | 465 | 68.4% | 30.1% | D+38.3 |
| Precinct -000064000064 | 400 | 54 | 0 | 454 | 88.1% | 11.9% | D+76.2 |
| Precinct -000070000070 | 266 | 166 | 6 | 438 | 60.7% | 37.9% | D+22.8 |
| Precinct -000048000048 | 259 | 169 | 6 | 434 | 59.7% | 38.9% | D+20.7 |
| Precinct -000046000046 | 204 | 215 | 0 | 419 | 48.7% | 51.3% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 287 | 116 | 8 | 411 | 69.8% | 28.2% | D+41.6 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 222 | 185 | 0 | 407 | 54.5% | 45.5% | D+9.1 |
| Precinct -000056000056 | 191 | 214 | 0 | 405 | 47.2% | 52.8% | R+5.7 |
| Precinct -000065000065 | 203 | 176 | 17 | 396 | 51.3% | 44.4% | D+6.8 |
| Precinct -000030000030 | 324 | 52 | 13 | 389 | 83.3% | 13.4% | D+69.9 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 345 | 43 | 0 | 388 | 88.9% | 11.1% | D+77.8 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 361 | 23 | 0 | 384 | 94.0% | 6.0% | D+88.0 |
| Precinct -000045000045 | 181 | 195 | 6 | 382 | 47.4% | 51.0% | R+3.7 |
| Precinct -000066000066 | 336 | 36 | 7 | 379 | 88.7% | 9.5% | D+79.2 |
| Precinct -000041000041 | 218 | 158 | 0 | 376 | 58.0% | 42.0% | D+16.0 |
| Precinct -000057000057 | 217 | 136 | 12 | 365 | 59.5% | 37.3% | D+22.2 |
| Precinct -000055000055 | 251 | 112 | 0 | 363 | 69.1% | 30.9% | D+38.3 |
| Precinct -000026000026 | 128 | 230 | 0 | 358 | 35.8% | 64.2% | R+28.5 |
| Precinct -000039000039 | 178 | 146 | 11 | 335 | 53.1% | 43.6% | D+9.6 |
| Precinct -000063000063 | 177 | 138 | 10 | 325 | 54.5% | 42.5% | D+12.0 |
| Precinct -000049000049 | 177 | 141 | 0 | 318 | 55.7% | 44.3% | D+11.3 |
| Precinct -000068000068 | 201 | 83 | 14 | 298 | 67.4% | 27.9% | D+39.6 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 206 | 69 | 0 | 275 | 74.9% | 25.1% | D+49.8 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 153 | 112 | 7 | 272 | 56.3% | 41.2% | D+15.1 |
| Precinct -000051000051 | 165 | 97 | 8 | 270 | 61.1% | 35.9% | D+25.2 |
| Precinct -000035000035 | 145 | 117 | 0 | 262 | 55.3% | 44.7% | D+10.7 |
| Precinct -000044000044 | 124 | 137 | 0 | 261 | 47.5% | 52.5% | R+5.0 |
| Precinct -000069000069 | 126 | 109 | 0 | 235 | 53.6% | 46.4% | D+7.2 |
| Precinct -000034000034 | 132 | 94 | 0 | 226 | 58.4% | 41.6% | D+16.8 |
| Precinct -000038000038 | 119 | 106 | 0 | 225 | 52.9% | 47.1% | D+5.8 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 112 | 106 | 6 | 224 | 50.0% | 47.3% | D+2.7 |
| Precinct -000062000062 | 129 | 81 | 7 | 217 | 59.4% | 37.3% | D+22.1 |
| Precinct -000032000032 | 133 | 83 | 0 | 216 | 61.6% | 38.4% | D+23.1 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 123 | 79 | 9 | 211 | 58.3% | 37.4% | D+20.9 |
| Precinct -000047000047 | 123 | 84 | 0 | 207 | 59.4% | 40.6% | D+18.8 |
| Precinct -000040000040 | 113 | 93 | 0 | 206 | 54.9% | 45.1% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -000060000060 | 130 | 70 | 0 | 200 | 65.0% | 35.0% | D+30.0 |
| Precinct -000052000052 | 73 | 122 | 0 | 195 | 37.4% | 62.6% | R+25.1 |
| Precinct -000061000061 | 132 | 57 | 0 | 189 | 69.8% | 30.2% | D+39.7 |
| Precinct -000059000059 | 99 | 84 | 0 | 183 | 54.1% | 45.9% | D+8.2 |
| Precinct -000042000042 | 94 | 78 | 0 | 172 | 54.7% | 45.3% | D+9.3 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 79 | 72 | 6 | 157 | 50.3% | 45.9% | D+4.5 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 106 | 47 | 0 | 153 | 69.3% | 30.7% | D+38.6 |
| Precinct -000050000050 | 62 | 78 | 0 | 140 | 44.3% | 55.7% | R+11.4 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 87 | 29 | 0 | 116 | 75.0% | 25.0% | D+50.0 |
| Precinct -000071000071 | 63 | 53 | 0 | 116 | 54.3% | 45.7% | D+8.6 |
| Precinct -000037000037 | 71 | 42 | 0 | 113 | 62.8% | 37.2% | D+25.7 |
| Precinct -000036000036 | 72 | 28 | 0 | 100 | 72.0% | 28.0% | D+44.0 |
| Precinct -000067000067 | 72 | 15 | 0 | 87 | 82.8% | 17.2% | D+65.5 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 39 | 22 | 0 | 61 | 63.9% | 36.1% | D+27.9 |
| McKinley County Precinct 135_350311 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1035_3503110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1135_3503111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1235_3503112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1335_3503113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1435_3503114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1535_3503115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1635_3503116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1735_3503117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1835_3503118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 1935_3503119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 235_350312 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2035_3503120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2135_3503121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2235_3503122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2335_3503123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2435_3503124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2535_3503125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2635_3503126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2735_3503127 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2835_3503128 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 2935_3503129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 335_350313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3035_3503130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3135_3503131 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3235_3503132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3335_3503133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3435_3503134 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3535_3503135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3635_3503136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3735_3503137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3835_3503138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 3935_3503139 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 435_350314 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4035_3503140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4135_3503141 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4235_3503142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4335_3503143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4435_3503144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4535_3503145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4635_3503146 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4735_3503147 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4835_3503148 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 4935_3503149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 535_350315 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5035_3503150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5235_3503152 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5335_3503153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5435_3503154 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5535_3503155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5635_3503156 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5735_3503157 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5835_3503158 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 5935_3503159 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 635_350316 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 735_350317 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 835_350318 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McKinley County Precinct 935_350319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
McKinley County, NM · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
72.2%
15,841 votes · D+46.9
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 71.4%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
62.2%
2,075 votes · R+24.8
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 60.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
18,029votes
68.1% of the vote · D+38.6
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 16,572 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
9,364votes
36.2% of the vote · D+24.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 7,801 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+43.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+46.9 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +36.9 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+25.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+5.5 · U.S. D+19.5
Runner-up · Charles E. Hughes, 1916 · +12.9 pts
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 66.3%16,547 | 33.7%8,426 | 24,973 |
| 2020 | D | 67.8%17,217 | 32.2%8,162 | 25,379 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 12 points more Republican than the rolls.
46,272 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−450 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −8,905 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $39,733 in average income, against $44,022 for residents who stayed — 10% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+9.3 on average — 15 points more Republican-leaning than McKinley County, NM itself (D+24.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Apache County, AZ191D+19.0
- Bernalillo County, NM186D+21.0
- Maricopa County, AZ75R+3.5
- San Juan County, NM63R+31.7
- Cibola County, NM47D+1.5
- Sandoval County, NM34D+5.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bernalillo County, NM341
- Apache County, AZ176
- Maricopa County, AZ133
- San Juan County, NM120
- Cibola County, NM90
- Sandoval County, NM57
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −195 |
| 2012 | −715 |
| 2013 | −486 |
| 2014 | −605 |
| 2015 | +64 |
| 2016 | −879 |
| 2017 | −821 |
| 2018 | −710 |
| 2019 | −738 |
| 2021 | −747 |
| 2022 | −1,345 |
| 2023 | −1,066 |
| 2024 | −212 |
| 2025 | −450 |
McKinley County, home to a large portion of the Navajo Nation, posts some of New Mexico's widest Democratic presidential margins — the 2024 gap exceeded 24 points — reflecting a predominantly Native American electorate with distinct policy priorities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 46.9 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 24.8 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 14.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.5 points.
A population of 70,431, a 8% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $47,668 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Sioux County and Oglala Lakota County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
McKinley County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.