Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
ArizonaTrumpR+5.5
2024StatewideR+5.5

15 counties · presidential margin · 2024

County15 areas · 2024 presidential vote
Coconino41,50427,576D+19.970,067Apache18,87212,795D+19.032,019Santa Cruz11,2657,699D+18.619,121Pima292,450214,669D+15.2513,176Maricopa980,0161,051,531R+3.52,053,945Navajo20,75429,480R+17.250,706Yuma26,82340,745R+20.468,195Pinal80,656126,926R+22.1209,552Cochise22,29635,936R+23.158,923Yavapai48,71799,346R+33.9149,402Gila8,50418,901R+37.627,648Greenlee9542,308R+40.93,308La Paz2,1015,470R+44.27,624Graham3,86711,177R+48.115,183Mohave24,08185,683R+55.8110,450

Arizona, Arizona

presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1912 to 2024. Most recent: −5.5% in 2024.flipped R · 2024−5.5%DR19122024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1912+30.8%
1916+21.8%
1920−11.2%
1924−5.8%
1928−15.3%
1932+36.5%
1936+42.9%
1940+27.5%
1944+17.9%
1948+10.0%
1952−16.7%
1956−22.1%
1960−11.1%
1964−0.8%
1968−19.8%
1972−31.3%
1976−16.6%
1980−32.4%
1984−33.9%
1988−21.2%
1992−2.0%
1996+2.2%
2000−6.3%
2004−10.5%
2008−8.5%
2012−9.0%
2016−3.5%
2020+0.3%
2024−5.5%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
46.7%Harris1,582,860
52.2%Trump1,770,242
0.5%Stein18,319
−5.5%
3,390,161
D
49.2%Biden1,672,143
48.9%Trump1,661,686
1.5%Jorgensen51,465
+0.3%
3,397,388
R
44.6%Clinton1,161,167
48.1%Trump1,252,401
4.1%Johnson106,327
−3.5%
2,604,657
R
44.4%Obama1,025,232
53.5%Romney1,233,654
1.4%Johnson32,100
−9.0%
2,306,559
R
45.1%Obama1,034,707
53.6%McCain1,230,111
0.5%Barr12,555
−8.5%
2,293,475
R
44.3%Kerry893,524
54.8%Bush1,104,294
0.6%Badnarik11,856
−10.5%
2,016,102
R
44.7%Gore685,341
51.0%Bush781,652
3.0%Nader45,645
−6.3%
1,534,113
D
46.5%Clinton653,288
44.3%Dole622,073
8.0%Perot112,072
+2.2%
1,404,405
R
36.5%Clinton543,050
38.5%Bush572,086
23.8%Perot353,741
−2.0%
1,487,006
R
38.7%Dukakis454,029
60.0%Bush702,541
1.1%Paul13,351
−21.2%
1,171,873
R
32.5%Mondale333,854
66.4%Reagan681,416
1.0%Bergland10,585
−33.9%
1,025,897
R
28.2%Carter246,843
60.6%Reagan529,688
8.8%Anderson76,952
−32.4%
873,945
R
39.8%Carter295,602
56.4%Ford418,642
2.6%McCarthy19,229
−16.6%
742,719
R
30.4%McGovern198,540
61.6%Nixon402,812
8.0%Schmitz52,153
−31.3%
653,505
R
35.0%Humphrey170,514
54.8%Nixon266,721
10.2%Wallace49,701
−19.8%
486,936
R
49.5%Johnson237,461
50.4%Goldwater241,420
0.1%Hass481
−0.8%
479,362
R
44.4%Kennedy176,408
55.5%Nixon220,742
0.1%Byrd466
−11.1%
397,616
R
38.9%Stevenson112,880
61.0%Eisenhower176,990
0.1%Andrews303
−22.1%
290,173
R
41.7%Stevenson108,528
58.3%Eisenhower152,042
0.0%
−16.7%
260,570
D
53.8%Truman95,251
43.8%Dewey77,597
2.4%Thurmond4,217
+10.0%
177,065
D
58.8%Roosevelt80,926
40.9%Dewey56,287
0.3%Thomas421
+17.9%
137,634
D
63.5%Roosevelt95,267
36.0%Willkie54,030
0.5%Thomas742
+27.5%
150,039
D
69.8%Roosevelt86,722
26.9%Landon33,433
3.2%Lemke4,008
+42.9%
124,163
D
67.0%Roosevelt79,264
30.5%Hoover36,104
2.4%Thomas2,883
+36.5%
118,251
R
42.2%Smith38,537
57.6%Hoover52,533
0.2%Thomas184
−15.3%
91,254
R
35.6%Davis26,235
41.4%Coolidge30,516
23.0%La Follette16,940
−5.8%
73,691
R
44.4%Cox29,546
55.6%Harding37,016
0.0%
−11.2%
66,562
D
57.3%Wilson33,170
35.4%Hughes20,524
7.3%Benson4,227
+21.8%
57,921
O
43.5%Wilson10,324
12.7%Taft3,021
43.7%Roosevelt10,377
Roosevelt +0.2
23,722
————
No data
—
————
No data
—
————
No data
—
————
No data
—
————
No data
—
2026 election
On the ballot
Governorno nominee yet
Katie Hobbspresumptive nomineeAndy BiggsDavid SchweikertBarry Hess

Incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) is running for re-election and is unopposed in the Democratic primary (presumptive nominee). GOP primary is July 21, 2026 (NOT yet held): U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs (Trump-endorsed frontrunner) and David Schweikert are the two major candidates. Karrin Taylor Robson withdrew Feb 12, 2026. Libertarian Barry Hess is a settled third-party candidate; multiple Green Party hopefuls are still competing in their own primary so no single Green general candidate is fixed.

Full 2026 forecast →

Source · Akashic 2026 forecast.
Congressional elections · 170 House races · 18 Senate races

U.S. House

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0. Seat totals count district winners; vote shares aggregate every district.
YearSeats wonD %R %Total
D 3 · R 647.7%51.7%3,253,920
D 3 · R 643.1%56.1%2,360,078
D 5 · R 449.9%50.1%3,268,249
D 5 · R 450.4%48.7%2,341,270

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024D
50.1%1,676,335
47.7%1,595,761
3,347,964
2022D
51.4%1,322,027
46.5%1,196,328
2,572,294
2020D
51.2%1,716,634
48.8%1,638,060
3,355,307
2018D
50.0%1,191,100
47.6%1,135,200
2,383,742
2016R
40.8%1,031,245
53.8%1,359,761
2,529,768
2012R
46.2%1,036,542
49.2%1,104,457
2,243,108
2010R
34.8%592,011
59.1%1,005,615
1,702,326
2006R
43.5%664,141
53.3%814,398
1,526,770
2004R
20.6%404,507
76.7%1,505,372
1,961,677
2000R
0.0%0
79.3%1,108,196
1,397,076
1998R
27.2%275,224
68.8%696,577
1,013,093
1994R
39.5%442,510
53.7%600,999
1,119,002
1992R
31.6%436,321
55.8%771,395
1,382,025
1988D
56.7%660,403
41.1%478,060
1,164,507
1986R
39.5%340,965
60.5%521,850
862,815
1982D
56.9%411,970
40.3%291,749
723,819
1980R
48.4%422,972
49.5%432,371
874,225
1976D
54.0%400,334
43.3%321,236
741,210
Five Arizonans — Goldwater, McCain, Flake, Sinema, and Gallego — each broke with their own party.
Swing-state arc
R+3.5 (2016) → D+0.3 (2020) → R+5.5 (2024), among the nation’s closest margins · MIT Election Lab
Goldwater’s home state, 1964
R+0.8 — Arizona held for its native son as he lost 44 of 50 states · MIT Election Lab
Hispanic or Latino
31.4% of residents (26.9% Mexican origin) · ACS 2024 5-year
American Indian
3.2% statewide; Apache County 71% — Navajo Nation, Hopi, Tohono O’odham · ACS 2024 5-year (B03002)
Latter-day Saints
6.1% — the 4th-largest share of any state · 2020 U.S. Religion Census
A senator switches sides
Sinema, elected Democratic in 2018, left the party in 2022; Gallego won the seat in 2024 · U.S. Senate records
Political twins — states

The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Texas
Texas
65.8twin score
12-yr trend% Latino2008 margin≠ elasticity
New Mexico
New Mexico
52.5twin score
Mexican ancestry% Black% Evangelical≠ elasticity
Colorado
Colorado
42.7twin score
12-yr trend% Black% Latino≠ elasticity

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/AZ/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Embed & data: CC BY 4.0 · Akashic Intelligence
Largest cities in Arizona
Phoenix
1.6M residents
Tucson
547.1K residents
Mesa
511.8K residents
Gilbert
280.3K residents
Chandler
280.1K residents
Glendale
252.8K residents
Scottsdale
243.8K residents
Peoria
196.9K residents
Tempe
188.1K residents
Surprise
154.9K residents
San Tan Valley
109.2K residents
Goodyear
107.6K residents
Arizona at the ballot boxAll elections →
Presidentcounty detail2024US Senatestatewide2024Governorstate + county2022US Houseall districts2024

Places within Arizona

15counties11metro areas2combined areas3media markets9congressional districts30state senate districts30state house districts
More in Arizona
Apache County
Cochise County
Coconino County
Gila County
Graham County
Greenlee County

Frequently asked questions

How did Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,390,161 votes cast, 1,582,860 went Democratic and 1,770,242 went Republican.
When did Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Arizona?
Arizona has a population of 7,378,838 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona?
Median household income in Arizona is $79,964 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.