HarrisDemocratic46.7%1,582,860TrumpRepublican52.2%1,770,242SteinGreen0.5%18,319
R+5.5- Lead
- 187,382
- Total
- 3,390,161
- vs nation
- R+4.1
- Turnout
- 65.3%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 7,378,8382024 5-year
- Population density
- 65 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 113,656 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $79,9642024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 31.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.9 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+33.9 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Texas, TX · twin score 65.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.3%3,477,975 participants ÷ 5,324,116 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 48.2%–52.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 2,722,660 | 4,613,575 | 59.0% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 2,409,906 | 4,812,764 | 50.1% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,420,481 | 5,049,926 | 67.7% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,592,375 | 5,118,553 | 50.6% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,477,975 | 5,324,116 | 65.3% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
69.8%
86,722 votes · D+42.9
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 67.0%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
66.4%
681,416 votes · R+33.9
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 61.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,672,143votes
49.4% of the vote · D+0.3
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 1,582,860 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,770,242votes
52.2% of the vote · R+5.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,661,686 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+19.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+5.8 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · +18.7 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+23.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+0.8 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1980 · +22.6 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governor
Katie HobbsnomineeAndy BiggsnomineeTeri HourihannomineeDavid Schweikert
Hobbs unopposed; Rep. Andy Biggs won the GOP primary with 74.0% over David Schweikert (AP call July 22). First AZ governor race with running mates: Hobbs-Giles vs Biggs-Kerr.
U.S. House elections · 170 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 3 · R 6 | 47.7% | 51.7% | 3,253,920 | |
| D 3 · R 6 | 43.1% | 56.1% | 2,360,078 | |
| D 5 · R 4 | 49.9% | 50.1% | 3,268,249 | |
| D 5 · R 4 | 50.4% | 48.7% | 2,341,270 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+7.3
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.5
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 1.7 points.
4,306,554 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+31,107 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +703,363 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +11,062 |
| 2012 | +29,844 |
| 2013 | +24,050 |
| 2014 | +39,948 |
| 2015 | +45,561 |
| 2016 | +62,320 |
| 2017 | +62,686 |
| 2018 | +84,113 |
| 2019 | +91,017 |
| 2021 | +84,233 |
| 2022 | +68,315 |
| 2023 | +34,804 |
| 2024 | +34,303 |
| 2025 | +31,107 |
Five Arizonans — Goldwater, McCain, Flake, Sinema, and Gallego — each broke with their own party.
- Swing-state arc
- R+3.5 (2016) → D+0.3 (2020) → R+5.5 (2024), among the nation’s closest margins · MIT Election Lab
- Goldwater’s home state, 1964
- R+0.8 — Arizona held for its native son as he lost 44 of 50 states · MIT Election Lab
- Hispanic or Latino
- 31.4% of residents (26.9% Mexican origin) · ACS 2024 5-year
- American Indian
- 3.2% statewide; Apache County 71% — Navajo Nation, Hopi, Tohono O’odham · ACS 2024 5-year (B03002)
- Latter-day Saints
- 6.1% — the 4th-largest share of any state · 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- A senator switches sides
- Sinema, elected Democratic in 2018, left the party in 2022; Gallego won the seat in 2024 · U.S. Senate records
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Texas
Texas
65.8twin score
12-yr trend% Latino2008 margin≠ elasticity
New Mexico
New Mexico
52.5twin score
Mexican ancestry% Black% Evangelical≠ elasticity
Colorado
Colorado
42.7twin score
12-yr trend% Black% Latino≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/AZ/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Arizona voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,390,161 votes cast, 1,582,860 went Democratic and 1,770,242 went Republican.
When did Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Arizona?
Arizona has a population of 7,378,838 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arizona?
Median household income in Arizona is $79,964 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.