Akashic

county

Graham County, AZ

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1912–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1912 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

English12.9%10.2%9.5%

German8.5%12.6%12.5%

Irish6.6%8.9%9.4%

American6.3%4.0%5.3%

Scottish4.0%1.7%1.3%

Italian2.1%4.1%4.8%

French1.1%1.8%1.6%

Danish1.0%——

Mexican27.9%26.9%11.3%

Puerto Rican0.4%0.7%1.8%

Spaniard0.4%0.5%—

Peruvian0.3%——

Spanish0.2%0.4%—

African American†1.5%3.6%9.9%

Navajo0.6%1.9%—

Native Hawaiian0.3%——

White Mountain Apache0.2%——

Aztec0.2%——

Guamanian0.2%——

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Graham County	Arizona	United States
Median age	34.9	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	9.9%	9.5%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	14.4%	18.9%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Graham County	Arizona	United States
Median household income	$67,325	$79,964	$84,427
Poverty rate	17.3%	12.5%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	14.6%	33.5%	35.6%

Languages at home

Measure	Graham County	Arizona	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	19.0%	25.8%	22.3%
Spanish	13.1%	19.3%	13.6%
Other languages	4.7%	2.0%	0.8%

Religious landscape

Measure	Graham County	Arizona	United States
Catholic	5.3%	21.3%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	8.1%	10.5%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	54.3%	55.8%	51.5%
Latter-day Saints	30.7%	6.1%	2.0%

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.

President results by year

2024 turnout 53.5% of 28,622 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic25.5%3,867TrumpRepublican73.6%11,177OliverLibertarian0.6%87

R+48.1

Lead: 7,310
Total: 15,183
vs nation: R+46.7
Turnout: 53.5%

BidenDemocratic26.8%4,034TrumpRepublican71.5%10,749JorgensenLibertarian1.4%212

R+44.7

Lead: 6,715
Total: 15,029
vs nation: R+49.1
Turnout: 54.9%

ClintonDemocratic26.9%3,301TrumpRepublican65.3%8,025OtherAll other candidates7.8%955

R+38.5

Lead: 4,724
Total: 12,281
vs nation: R+40.6
Turnout: 48.3%

ObamaDemocratic30.3%3,609RomneyRepublican67.8%8,076JohnsonLibertarian1.2%142

R+37.5

Lead: 4,467
Total: 11,905
vs nation: R+41.4
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic29.0%3,487McCainRepublican69.8%8,376OtherAll other candidates1.2%144

R+40.7

Lead: 4,889
Total: 12,007
vs nation: R+48.0
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic29.7%3,185BushRepublican69.7%7,467OtherAll other candidates0.6%68

R+39.9

Lead: 4,282
Total: 10,720
vs nation: R+37.5
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic34.7%3,355BushRepublican62.2%6,007NaderGreen1.5%144

R+27.4

Lead: 2,652
Total: 9,664
vs nation: R+28.0
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic42.4%3,938DoleRepublican45.4%4,222PerotReform11.1%1,034

R+3.1

Lead: 284
Total: 9,296
vs nation: R+11.6
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+48.1MIT Election Lab
Population: 39,2322024 5-year
Median household income: $67,3252024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 52.7%2024 5-year
Black: 1.6%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 30.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+65.4 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+48.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Liberty County, TX · twin score 82.0

Participation

Midterm durability

Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.

2024 total turnout: 53.5%15,327 participants ÷ 28,622 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +15.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off versus state: -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026 scenario: 38.0%–41.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Election	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Quality
2016 · Presidential	12,535	25,961	48.3%	A/A
2018 · Midterm	10,786	26,648	40.5%	A/A
2020 · Presidential	15,113	27,526	54.9%	A/A
2022 · Midterm	11,006	27,942	39.4%	A/A
2024 · Presidential	15,327	28,622	53.5%	A/A

Sources and methods

2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.

Precinct data

Results by precinct

42 precincts · 29,957 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Graham County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -009 PIMA 9009 PIMA 9	306	1,925	2,273	4,504	6.8%	42.7%	R+35.9
Precinct -007 THATCHER 7007 THATCHER 7	336	1,193	1,565	3,094	10.9%	38.6%	R+27.7
Precinct -015 SAFFORD 15015 SAFFORD 15	388	849	1,267	2,504	15.5%	33.9%	R+18.4
Precinct -002 SAFFORD 2002 SAFFORD 2	370	782	1,196	2,348	15.8%	33.3%	R+17.5
Precinct -005 LAYTON 5005 LAYTON 5	299	865	1,178	2,342	12.8%	36.9%	R+24.2
Precinct -018 JACKSON 18018 JACKSON 18	186	836	1,048	2,070	9.0%	40.4%	R+31.4
Precinct -019 DESERT HILLS 19019 DESERT HILLS 19	134	770	928	1,832	7.3%	42.0%	R+34.7
Precinct -001 SOLOMON 1001 SOLOMON 1	214	574	806	1,594	13.4%	36.0%	R+22.6
Precinct -006 THATCHER 6006 THATCHER 6	100	621	751	1,472	6.8%	42.2%	R+35.4
Precinct -011 BYLAS 11011 BYLAS 11	534	123	665	1,322	40.4%	9.3%	D+31.1
Precinct -020 ARTESIA 20020 ARTESIA 20	106	538	660	1,304	8.1%	41.3%	R+33.1
Precinct -003 SAFFORD 3003 SAFFORD 3	143	394	543	1,080	13.2%	36.5%	R+23.2
Precinct -008 CENTRAL 8008 CENTRAL 8	45	475	526	1,046	4.3%	45.4%	R+41.1
Precinct -016 PERIDOT 16016 PERIDOT 16	383	107	498	988	38.8%	10.8%	D+27.9
Precinct -004 LAYTON 4004 LAYTON 4	148	308	462	918	16.1%	33.6%	R+17.4
Precinct -014 THUNDERBIRD 14014 THUNDERBIRD 14	43	216	273	532	8.1%	40.6%	R+32.5
Precinct -017 CACTUS 17017 CACTUS 17	48	139	189	376	12.8%	37.0%	R+24.2
Precinct -010 FORT THOMAS 10010 FORT THOMAS 10	25	190	0	215	11.6%	88.4%	R+76.7
Precinct -013 BONITA 13013 BONITA 13	14	126	0	140	10.0%	90.0%	R+80.0
Precinct -021 QUATRO CERROS 21021 QUATRO CERROS 21	17	78	0	95	17.9%	82.1%	R+64.2
Precinct -012 KLONDYKE 12012 KLONDYKE 12	15	30	49	94	16.0%	31.9%	R+16.0
Precinct -023 FORT GRANT 23023 FORT GRANT 23	4	26	36	66	6.1%	39.4%	R+33.3
Precinct -022 GILA RIVER 22022 GILA RIVER 22	9	12	0	21	42.9%	57.1%	R+14.3
Bonita 13 Voting District04_0400913	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Bylas 11 Voting District04_0400911	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Cactus 17 Voting District04_0400917	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Central 8 Voting District04_0400908	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Jackson 18 Voting District04_0400918	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Klondyke 12 Voting District04_0400912	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Layton 4 Voting District04_0400904	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Layton 5 Voting District04_0400905	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Peridot 16 Voting District04_0400916	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Pima 9 Voting District04_0400909	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Safford 15a Voting District04_0400915	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Safford 15b Voting District04_0400919	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Safford 2 Voting District04_0400902	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Safford 3 Voting District04_0400903	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Solomon 1 Voting District04_0400901	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Thatcher 6 Voting District04_0400906	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Thatcher 7 Voting District04_0400907	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Thomas 10 Voting District04_0400910	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Thunderbird 14 Voting District04_0400914	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1912–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1912	+41.3%
1916	+48.7%
1920	+8.6%
1924	+17.9%
1928	+13.2%
1932	+59.3%
1936	+65.4%
1940	+45.7%
1944	+35.0%
1948	+27.5%
1952	+0.2%
1956	−17.1%
1960	−8.7%
1964	+2.4%
1968	−12.2%
1972	−28.8%
1976	−8.8%
1980	−24.7%
1984	−25.7%
1988	−19.8%
1992	−8.0%
1996	−3.1%
2000	−27.4%
2004	−39.9%
2008	−40.7%
2012	−37.5%
2016	−38.5%
2020	−44.7%
2024	−48.1%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year	Won	Democratic	Republican	Other	Margin	Swing	vs U.S.	Total
2024	R	25.5%Harris3,867	73.6%Trump11,177	0.6%Oliver87 +1	R+48.1	R+3.5	R+46.7	15,183
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent Donald J TrumpRepublican73.6%11,177 Kamala D HarrisDemocratic25.5%3,867 Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%87 Jill SteinIndependent0.3%52
2020	R	26.8%Biden4,034	71.5%Trump10,749	1.4%Jorgensen212	R+44.7	R+6.2	R+49.1	15,029
2016	R	26.9%Clinton3,301	65.3%Trump8,025	7.8%	R+38.5	R+0.9	R+40.6	12,281
2012	R	30.3%Obama3,609	67.8%Romney8,076	1.2%Johnson142	R+37.5	D+3.2	R+41.4	11,905
2008	R	29.0%Obama3,487	69.8%McCain8,376	1.2%	R+40.7	R+0.8	R+48.0	12,007
2004	R	29.7%Kerry3,185	69.7%Bush7,467	0.6%	R+39.9	R+12.5	R+37.5	10,720
2000	R	34.7%Gore3,355	62.2%Bush6,007	1.5%Nader144	R+27.4	R+24.4	R+28.0	9,664
1996	R	42.4%Clinton3,938	45.4%Dole4,222	11.1%Perot1,034	R+3.1	D+5.0	R+11.6	9,296
1992	R	35.0%Clinton3,391	43.0%Bush4,169	19.2%Perot1,860	R+8.0	D+11.8	R+13.6	9,699
1988	R	39.4%Dukakis3,407	59.2%Bush5,120	1.4%	R+19.8	D+5.9	R+12.1	8,652
1984	R	36.6%Mondale3,080	62.3%Reagan5,247	1.1%	R+25.7	R+1.1	R+7.5	8,416
1980	R	35.2%Carter2,801	59.9%Reagan4,765	5.0%	R+24.7	R+15.9	R+14.9	7,961
1976	R	43.8%Carter3,050	52.6%Ford3,659	3.6%	R+8.8	D+20.1	R+10.8	6,958
1972	R	31.3%McGovern1,863	60.2%Nixon3,575	8.5%	R+28.8	R+16.6	R+5.7	5,943
1968	R	35.0%Humphrey1,726	47.2%Nixon2,327	17.8%	R+12.2	R+14.5	R+11.5	4,929
1964	D	51.2%Johnson2,783	48.8%Goldwater2,655	0.0%	D+2.4	D+11.1	R+20.2	5,438
1960	R	45.6%Kennedy2,091	54.4%Nixon2,491	0.0%	R+8.7	D+8.4	R+8.9	4,583
1956	R	41.5%Stevenson1,688	58.5%Eisenhower2,384	0.0%	R+17.1	R+17.3	R+1.7	4,072
1952	D	50.1%Stevenson2,200	49.9%Eisenhower2,191	0.0%	D+0.2	R+27.3	D+11.0	4,391
1948	D	63.2%Truman2,139	35.7%Dewey1,209	1.1%	D+27.5	R+7.5	D+23.0	3,386
1944	D	67.4%Roosevelt2,393	32.4%Dewey1,151	0.1%	D+35.0	R+10.7	D+27.5	3,549
1940	D	72.6%Roosevelt3,130	26.9%Willkie1,161	0.4%	D+45.7	R+19.7	D+35.7	4,310
1936	D	80.9%Roosevelt3,541	15.5%Landon680	3.5%	D+65.4	D+6.1	D+41.1	4,375
1932	D	79.1%Roosevelt2,867	19.8%Hoover718	1.1%	D+59.3	D+46.1	D+41.5	3,625
1928	D	56.4%Smith1,615	43.3%Hoover1,238	0.3%	D+13.2	R+4.7	D+30.6	2,861
1924	D	51.1%Davis1,252	33.2%Coolidge813	15.7%La Follette386	D+17.9	D+9.3	D+43.1	2,451
1920	D	54.3%Cox1,261	45.7%Harding1,062	0.0%	D+8.6	R+40.2	D+34.8	2,323
1916	D	70.8%Wilson1,597	22.0%Hughes497	7.2%	D+48.7	D+7.4	D+45.6	2,257
1912	D	51.1%Wilson540	9.7%Taft103	39.2%	D+41.3	—	D+21.8	1,057
1908	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1904	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1900	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1896	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1892	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1888	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	—	—	—	No data	—	—	—

Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 11 governor

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	26.9%3,910	73.1%10,635	14,545
2020	R	30.4%4,436	69.6%10,153	14,589
2018	R	34.7%3,658	65.3%6,886	10,544

U.S. Senate

Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	28.2%4,235	69.3%10,385	14,993
2022	R	29.8%3,243	67.9%7,388	10,886
2018Class I	R	31.8%Krysten Sinema3,368	64.8%Martha McSally6,870	10,606
2016Class III	R	27.6%Ann Kirkpatrick3,280	65.0%John McCain7,728	11,893
2012Class I	R	32.2%Richard Carmona3,771	62.9%Jeff Flake7,352	11,697
2010Class III	R	24.2%Rodney Glassman2,194	68.7%John McCain6,223	9,053
2006Class I	R	28.0%Jim Pederson2,194	65.4%Jon Kyl5,127	7,837
2004Class III	R	19.1%Stuart Starky2,000	77.9%John McCain8,171	10,493
2000Class I	R	0.0%None0	85.4%Jon Kyl7,520	8,808
1998Class III	R	27.5%Ed Ranger2,043	70.1%John McCain5,215	7,436
1994Class I	R	35.9%Sam Coppersmith2,771	59.7%Jon Kyl4,607	7,719
1992Class III	R	27.3%Claire Sargent2,659	49.0%John McCain4,766	9,727
1988Class I	D	63.4%Dennis DeConcini5,603	34.9%Keith DeGreen3,084	8,831
1986Class III	R	42.0%Richard Kimball2,903	57.9%John McCain4,002	6,909
1982Class I	D	60.4%Dennis DeConcini3,994	38.1%Pete Dunn2,517	6,610
1980Class III	D	50.5%Bill Schulz3,939	47.1%Barry Goldwater3,677	7,802
1976Class I	D	50.8%Dennis DeConcini3,507	47.7%Sam Steiger3,295	6,907
1974Class III	R	39.9%Jonathan Marshall2,042	60.1%Barry Goldwater3,070	5,112
1970Class I	R	46.8%Sam Grossman2,032	53.2%Paul Fannin2,309	4,341
1968Class III	R	48.2%Roy Elson2,392	51.8%Barry Goldwater2,571	4,963
1964Class I	D	51.7%Roy Elson2,719	48.3%Paul Fannin2,543	5,262
1962Class III	D	55.4%Carl Hayden2,354	44.6%Evan Mecham1,895	4,249
1958Class I	R	45.2%Ernest McFarland1,918	54.8%Barry Goldwater2,326	4,244
1956Class III	D	69.8%Carl Hayden2,894	30.2%Ross F. Jones1,253	4,147
1952Class I	D	59.0%Ernest McFarland2,475	41.0%Barry Goldwater1,722	4,197
1950Class III	D	60.1%Carl Hayden1,864	39.9%Bruce Brockett1,238	3,102
1946Class I	D	72.4%Ernest McFarland1,956	26.6%Ward S. Powers719	2,700
1944Class III	D	76.5%Carl Hayden2,260	23.5%Fred W. Fickett696	2,956
1940Class I	D	77.4%Ernest McFarland2,892	22.6%I.A. Jennings846	3,738
1938Class III	D	75.1%Carl Hayden2,761	24.9%B.H. Clingan916	3,677
1934Class I	D	77.4%Henry Ashurst2,290	20.0%J.E. Thompson591	2,958
1932Class III	D	75.9%Carl Hayden2,527	22.2%Ralph H. Cameron740	3,330
1928Class I	D	65.4%Henry Ashurst1,695	34.6%Ralph H. Cameron897	2,592
1926Class III	D	61.0%Carl Hayden1,597	39.0%Ralph H. Cameron1,022	2,619
1922Class I	D	78.7%Henry Ashurst1,546	21.3%James H. McClintock418	1,964
1920Class III	D	50.5%Marcus A. Smith1,224	49.5%Ralph H. Cameron1,198	2,422
1916Class I	D	67.0%Henry Ashurst1,487	27.4%Joseph H. Kibbey609	2,219
1914Class III	D	55.7%Marcus A. Smith1,124	18.0%J.L. Hubbell364	2,018

U.S. Senate special elections

Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2020Special · Class III	R	30.4%Mark Kelly4,506	69.6%Martha McSally10,303	14,813

Governor

Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2022	R	28.5%Katie Hobbs3,087	71.5%Kari Lake7,760	10,847
2018	R	24.2%David Garcia2,569	73.2%Doug Ducey7,776	10,621
2014	R	26.4%Fred DuVal1,919	68.6%Doug Ducey4,985	7,266
2010	R	31.3%Terry Goddard2,865	65.5%Jan Brewer5,994	9,153
2006	D	55.6%Janet Napolitano4,348	42.3%Len Munsil3,306	7,815
2002	R	36.6%Janet Napolitano2,924	56.3%Matt Salmon4,491	7,981
1998	R	37.9%Paul Johnson2,780	58.9%Jane Dee Hull4,324	7,338
1994	R	39.7%Eddie Basha3,101	58.5%Fife Symington4,570	7,814
1986	R	34.5%Carolyn Warner2,381	47.1%Evan Mecham3,257	6,910
1982	D	62.1%Bruce Babbitt4,127	31.9%Leo Corbet2,123	6,649
1978	R	44.4%Bruce Babbitt2,565	53.4%Evan Mecham3,085	5,776

voter registration

Registered voters

By party of registration, over time

Party registration · 2026R+31.5

Presidential vote · 2024R+48.1

Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 17 points more Democratic.

20,375 registered voters · 2026

Democratic20.3%Republican51.8%Unaffiliated26.3%Other1.6%

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−228 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net −192 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $58,452 in average income, against $69,039 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+13.1 on average — 35 points more Democratic-leaning than Graham County, AZ itself (R+48.1).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Maricopa County, AZ155R+3.5
Greenlee County, AZ72R+40.9
Pima County, AZ67D+15.2
Cochise County, AZ43R+23.1
Pinal County, AZ32R+22.1
Gila County, AZ23R+37.6

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Maricopa County, AZ135
Pima County, AZ67
Greenlee County, AZ65
Cochise County, AZ37
Gila County, AZ23
Pinal County, AZ21

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Graham County, AZ in Graham County, AZ: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	−301
2012	−394
2013	+97
2014	+243
2015	−625
2016	−372
2017	−643
2018	+302
2019	+607
2021	+194
2022	−178
2023	+602
2024	+504
2025	−228

Graham County's high desert terrain and small-town economy have produced presidential margins above R+40 in each of the past several cycles, making it a consistent outlier even within a state that has trended competitive at the statewide level.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 65.4 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 48.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.1 points.

A population of 39,232, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,325 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Liberty County and Jerome County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Liberty County

Texas

82.0twin score

elasticity2008 margin% Latino≠ % Evangelical

Jerome County

Idaho

79.6twin score

2008 marginmedian age% Latino≠ elasticity

Clark County

Idaho

79.5twin score

elasticity% Latinomedian age≠ 2000 margin

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Graham County, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/04009/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Graham County

Arizona at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2022 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Graham County, Arizona vote in 2024?

In 2024, Graham County, Arizona voted Republican by 48.1 points (R+48.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 15,183 votes cast, 3,867 went Democratic and 11,177 went Republican.

When did Graham County, Arizona last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Graham County, Arizona voted Democratic was 1964.

How many people live in Graham County, Arizona?

Graham County, Arizona has a population of 39,232 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Graham County, Arizona?

Median household income in Graham County, Arizona is $67,325 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.

What is the political history of Graham County, Arizona?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Graham County, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 12 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.

Measure

Graham County

Arizona

United States

Median age

34.9

39.3

39.1

Age 18–24

9.9%

9.5%

9.2%

Age 65 and older

14.4%

18.9%

17.2%

Measure

Graham County

Arizona

United States

Median household income

$67,325

$79,964

$84,427

Poverty rate

17.3%

12.5%

Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)

14.6%

33.5%

35.6%

Measure

Graham County

Arizona

United States

Speaks a non-English language at home

19.0%

25.8%

22.3%

Spanish

13.1%

19.3%

13.6%

Other languages

4.7%

2.0%

0.8%

Measure

Graham County

Arizona

United States

Catholic

5.3%

21.3%

18.6%

Evangelical Protestant

8.1%

10.5%

16.5%

Unclaimed / not counted

54.3%

55.8%

51.5%

Latter-day Saints

30.7%

6.1%

2.0%

Key facts

2024 presidential margin

R+48.1MIT Election Lab

Population

39,2322024 5-year

Median household income

$67,3252024 5-year

White (non-Hispanic)

52.7%2024 5-year

Black

1.6%2024 5-year

Hispanic / Latino

30.8%2024 5-year

Peak Democratic margin

D+65.4 in 1936MIT Election Lab

Peak Republican margin

R+48.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab

Most similar

Liberty County, TX · twin score 82.0

Election

Participants

CVAP

Turnout

Quality

2016 · Presidential

12,535

25,961

48.3%

A/A

2018 · Midterm

10,786

26,648

40.5%

A/A

2020 · Presidential

15,113

27,526

54.9%

A/A

2022 · Midterm

11,006

27,942

39.4%

A/A

2024 · Presidential

15,327

28,622

53.5%

A/A

Graham County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -009 PIMA 9009 PIMA 9

306

1,925

2,273

4,504

6.8%

42.7%

R+35.9

Precinct -007 THATCHER 7007 THATCHER 7

336

1,193

1,565

3,094

10.9%

38.6%

R+27.7

Precinct -015 SAFFORD 15015 SAFFORD 15

388

849

1,267

2,504

15.5%

33.9%

R+18.4

Precinct -002 SAFFORD 2002 SAFFORD 2

370

782

1,196

2,348

15.8%

33.3%

R+17.5

Precinct -005 LAYTON 5005 LAYTON 5

299

865

1,178

2,342

12.8%

36.9%

R+24.2

Precinct -018 JACKSON 18018 JACKSON 18

186

836

1,048

2,070

9.0%

40.4%

R+31.4

Precinct -019 DESERT HILLS 19019 DESERT HILLS 19

134

770

928

1,832

7.3%

42.0%

R+34.7

Precinct -001 SOLOMON 1001 SOLOMON 1

214

574

806

1,594

13.4%

36.0%

R+22.6

Precinct -006 THATCHER 6006 THATCHER 6

100

621

751

1,472

6.8%

42.2%

R+35.4

Precinct -011 BYLAS 11011 BYLAS 11

534

123

665

1,322

40.4%

9.3%

D+31.1

Precinct -020 ARTESIA 20020 ARTESIA 20

106

538

660

1,304

8.1%

41.3%

R+33.1

Precinct -003 SAFFORD 3003 SAFFORD 3

143

394

543

1,080

13.2%

36.5%

R+23.2

Precinct -008 CENTRAL 8008 CENTRAL 8

475

526

1,046

4.3%

45.4%

R+41.1

Precinct -016 PERIDOT 16016 PERIDOT 16

383

107

498

988

38.8%

10.8%

D+27.9

Precinct -004 LAYTON 4004 LAYTON 4

148

308

462

918

16.1%

33.6%

R+17.4

Precinct -014 THUNDERBIRD 14014 THUNDERBIRD 14

216

273

532

8.1%

40.6%

R+32.5

Precinct -017 CACTUS 17017 CACTUS 17

139

189

376

12.8%

37.0%

R+24.2

Precinct -010 FORT THOMAS 10010 FORT THOMAS 10

190

215

11.6%

88.4%

R+76.7

Precinct -013 BONITA 13013 BONITA 13

126

140

10.0%

90.0%

R+80.0

Precinct -021 QUATRO CERROS 21021 QUATRO CERROS 21

17.9%

82.1%

R+64.2

Precinct -012 KLONDYKE 12012 KLONDYKE 12

16.0%

31.9%

R+16.0

Precinct -023 FORT GRANT 23023 FORT GRANT 23

6.1%

39.4%

R+33.3

Precinct -022 GILA RIVER 22022 GILA RIVER 22

42.9%

57.1%

R+14.3

Bonita 13 Voting District04_0400913

—

No votes

Bylas 11 Voting District04_0400911

—

No votes

Cactus 17 Voting District04_0400917

—

No votes

Central 8 Voting District04_0400908

—

No votes

Jackson 18 Voting District04_0400918

—

No votes

Klondyke 12 Voting District04_0400912

—

No votes

Layton 4 Voting District04_0400904

—

No votes

Layton 5 Voting District04_0400905

—

No votes

Peridot 16 Voting District04_0400916

—

No votes

Pima 9 Voting District04_0400909

—

No votes

Safford 15a Voting District04_0400915

—

No votes

Safford 15b Voting District04_0400919

—

No votes

Safford 2 Voting District04_0400902

—

No votes

Safford 3 Voting District04_0400903

—

No votes

Solomon 1 Voting District04_0400901

—

No votes

Thatcher 6 Voting District04_0400906

—

No votes

Thatcher 7 Voting District04_0400907

—

No votes

Thomas 10 Voting District04_0400910

—

No votes

Thunderbird 14 Voting District04_0400914

—

No votes

Presidential margin, 1912–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1912	+41.3%
1916	+48.7%
1920	+8.6%
1924	+17.9%
1928	+13.2%
1932	+59.3%
1936	+65.4%
1940	+45.7%
1944	+35.0%
1948	+27.5%
1952	+0.2%
1956	−17.1%
1960	−8.7%
1964	+2.4%
1968	−12.2%
1972	−28.8%
1976	−8.8%
1980	−24.7%
1984	−25.7%
1988	−19.8%
1992	−8.0%
1996	−3.1%
2000	−27.4%
2004	−39.9%
2008	−40.7%
2012	−37.5%
2016	−38.5%
2020	−44.7%
2024	−48.1%

DemocraticRepublican

Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle; not shown when either cycle is estimated or under source review. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.

Year

Won

Democratic

Republican

Other

Margin

Swing

vs U.S.

Total

2024

25.5%Harris3,867

73.6%Trump11,177

0.6%Oliver87 +1

R+48.1

R+3.5

R+46.7

15,183

All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent

Donald J TrumpRepublican73.6%11,177
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic25.5%3,867
Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%87
Jill SteinIndependent0.3%52

2020

26.8%Biden4,034

71.5%Trump10,749

1.4%Jorgensen212

R+44.7

R+6.2

R+49.1

15,029

2016

26.9%Clinton3,301

65.3%Trump8,025

7.8%

R+38.5

R+0.9

R+40.6

12,281

2012

30.3%Obama3,609

67.8%Romney8,076

1.2%Johnson142

R+37.5

D+3.2

R+41.4

11,905

2008

29.0%Obama3,487

69.8%McCain8,376

1.2%

R+40.7

R+0.8

R+48.0

12,007

2004

29.7%Kerry3,185

69.7%Bush7,467

0.6%

R+39.9

R+12.5

R+37.5

10,720

2000

34.7%Gore3,355

62.2%Bush6,007

1.5%Nader144

R+27.4

R+24.4

R+28.0

9,664

1996

42.4%Clinton3,938

45.4%Dole4,222

11.1%Perot1,034

R+3.1

D+5.0

R+11.6

9,296

1992

35.0%Clinton3,391

43.0%Bush4,169

19.2%Perot1,860

R+8.0

D+11.8

R+13.6

9,699

1988

39.4%Dukakis3,407

59.2%Bush5,120

1.4%

R+19.8

D+5.9

R+12.1

8,652

1984

36.6%Mondale3,080

62.3%Reagan5,247

1.1%

R+25.7

R+1.1

R+7.5

8,416

1980

35.2%Carter2,801

59.9%Reagan4,765

5.0%

R+24.7

R+15.9

R+14.9

7,961

1976

43.8%Carter3,050

52.6%Ford3,659

3.6%

R+8.8

D+20.1

R+10.8

6,958

1972

31.3%McGovern1,863

60.2%Nixon3,575

8.5%

R+28.8

R+16.6

R+5.7

5,943

1968

35.0%Humphrey1,726

47.2%Nixon2,327

17.8%

R+12.2

R+14.5

R+11.5

4,929

1964

51.2%Johnson2,783

48.8%Goldwater2,655

0.0%

D+2.4

D+11.1

R+20.2

5,438

1960

45.6%Kennedy2,091

54.4%Nixon2,491

0.0%

R+8.7

D+8.4

R+8.9

4,583

1956

41.5%Stevenson1,688

58.5%Eisenhower2,384

0.0%

R+17.1

R+17.3

R+1.7

4,072

1952

50.1%Stevenson2,200

49.9%Eisenhower2,191

0.0%

D+0.2

R+27.3

D+11.0

4,391

1948

63.2%Truman2,139

35.7%Dewey1,209

1.1%

D+27.5

R+7.5

D+23.0

3,386

1944

67.4%Roosevelt2,393

32.4%Dewey1,151

0.1%

D+35.0

R+10.7

D+27.5

3,549

1940

72.6%Roosevelt3,130

26.9%Willkie1,161

0.4%

D+45.7

R+19.7

D+35.7

4,310

1936

80.9%Roosevelt3,541

15.5%Landon680

3.5%

D+65.4

D+6.1

D+41.1

4,375

1932

79.1%Roosevelt2,867

19.8%Hoover718

1.1%

D+59.3

D+46.1

D+41.5

3,625

1928

56.4%Smith1,615

43.3%Hoover1,238

0.3%

D+13.2

R+4.7

D+30.6

2,861

1924

51.1%Davis1,252

33.2%Coolidge813

15.7%La Follette386

D+17.9

D+9.3

D+43.1

2,451

1920

54.3%Cox1,261

45.7%Harding1,062

0.0%

D+8.6

R+40.2

D+34.8

2,323

1916

70.8%Wilson1,597

22.0%Hughes497

7.2%

D+48.7

D+7.4

D+45.6

2,257

1912

51.1%Wilson540

9.7%Taft103

39.2%

D+41.3

—

D+21.8

1,057

1908

—

No data

—

1904

—

No data

—

1900

—

No data

—

1896

—

No data

—

1892

—

No data

—

1888

—

No data

—

1884

—

No data

—

1880

—

No data

—

1876

—

No data

—

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

26.9%3,910

73.1%10,635

14,545

2020

30.4%4,436

69.6%10,153

14,589

2018

34.7%3,658

65.3%6,886

10,544

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2024

28.2%4,235

69.3%10,385

14,993

2022

29.8%3,243

67.9%7,388

10,886

2018Class I

31.8%Krysten Sinema3,368

64.8%Martha McSally6,870

10,606

2016Class III

27.6%Ann Kirkpatrick3,280

65.0%John McCain7,728

11,893

2012Class I

32.2%Richard Carmona3,771

62.9%Jeff Flake7,352

11,697

2010Class III

24.2%Rodney Glassman2,194

68.7%John McCain6,223

9,053

2006Class I

28.0%Jim Pederson2,194

65.4%Jon Kyl5,127

7,837

2004Class III

19.1%Stuart Starky2,000

77.9%John McCain8,171

10,493

2000Class I

0.0%None0

85.4%Jon Kyl7,520

8,808

1998Class III

27.5%Ed Ranger2,043

70.1%John McCain5,215

7,436

1994Class I

35.9%Sam Coppersmith2,771

59.7%Jon Kyl4,607

7,719

1992Class III

27.3%Claire Sargent2,659

49.0%John McCain4,766

9,727

1988Class I

63.4%Dennis DeConcini5,603

34.9%Keith DeGreen3,084

8,831

1986Class III

42.0%Richard Kimball2,903

57.9%John McCain4,002

6,909

1982Class I

60.4%Dennis DeConcini3,994

38.1%Pete Dunn2,517

6,610

1980Class III

50.5%Bill Schulz3,939

47.1%Barry Goldwater3,677

7,802

1976Class I

50.8%Dennis DeConcini3,507

47.7%Sam Steiger3,295

6,907

1974Class III

39.9%Jonathan Marshall2,042

60.1%Barry Goldwater3,070

5,112

1970Class I

46.8%Sam Grossman2,032

53.2%Paul Fannin2,309

4,341

1968Class III

48.2%Roy Elson2,392

51.8%Barry Goldwater2,571

4,963

1964Class I

51.7%Roy Elson2,719

48.3%Paul Fannin2,543

5,262

1962Class III

55.4%Carl Hayden2,354

44.6%Evan Mecham1,895

4,249

1958Class I

45.2%Ernest McFarland1,918

54.8%Barry Goldwater2,326

4,244

1956Class III

69.8%Carl Hayden2,894

30.2%Ross F. Jones1,253

4,147

1952Class I

59.0%Ernest McFarland2,475

41.0%Barry Goldwater1,722

4,197

1950Class III

60.1%Carl Hayden1,864

39.9%Bruce Brockett1,238

3,102

1946Class I

72.4%Ernest McFarland1,956

26.6%Ward S. Powers719

2,700

1944Class III

76.5%Carl Hayden2,260

23.5%Fred W. Fickett696

2,956

1940Class I

77.4%Ernest McFarland2,892

22.6%I.A. Jennings846

3,738

1938Class III

75.1%Carl Hayden2,761

24.9%B.H. Clingan916

3,677

1934Class I

77.4%Henry Ashurst2,290

20.0%J.E. Thompson591

2,958

1932Class III

75.9%Carl Hayden2,527

22.2%Ralph H. Cameron740

3,330

1928Class I

65.4%Henry Ashurst1,695

34.6%Ralph H. Cameron897

2,592

1926Class III

61.0%Carl Hayden1,597

39.0%Ralph H. Cameron1,022

2,619

1922Class I

78.7%Henry Ashurst1,546

21.3%James H. McClintock418

1,964

1920Class III

50.5%Marcus A. Smith1,224

49.5%Ralph H. Cameron1,198

2,422

1916Class I

67.0%Henry Ashurst1,487

27.4%Joseph H. Kibbey609

2,219

1914Class III

55.7%Marcus A. Smith1,124

18.0%J.L. Hubbell364

2,018

Source · Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2020Special · Class III

30.4%Mark Kelly4,506

69.6%Martha McSally10,303

14,813

Sources · MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL); Amlani & Algara 2021 (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI); upstream CQ Press + ICPSR · CC BY 4.0 / CC0 1.0.

Year

Vote lead

Democratic

Republican

Total

2022

28.5%Katie Hobbs3,087

71.5%Kari Lake7,760

10,847

2018

24.2%David Garcia2,569

73.2%Doug Ducey7,776

10,621

2014

26.4%Fred DuVal1,919

68.6%Doug Ducey4,985

7,266

2010

31.3%Terry Goddard2,865

65.5%Jan Brewer5,994

9,153

2006

55.6%Janet Napolitano4,348

42.3%Len Munsil3,306

7,815

2002

36.6%Janet Napolitano2,924

56.3%Matt Salmon4,491

7,981

1998

37.9%Paul Johnson2,780

58.9%Jane Dee Hull4,324

7,338

1994

39.7%Eddie Basha3,101

58.5%Fife Symington4,570

7,814

1986

34.5%Carolyn Warner2,381

47.1%Evan Mecham3,257

6,910

1982

62.1%Bruce Babbitt4,127

31.9%Leo Corbet2,123

6,649

1978

44.4%Bruce Babbitt2,565

53.4%Evan Mecham3,085

5,776

Frequently asked questions

How did Graham County, Arizona vote in 2024?

In 2024, Graham County, Arizona voted Republican by 48.1 points (R+48.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 15,183 votes cast, 3,867 went Democratic and 11,177 went Republican.

When did Graham County, Arizona last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Graham County, Arizona voted Democratic was 1964.

How many people live in Graham County, Arizona?

Graham County, Arizona has a population of 39,232 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Graham County, Arizona?

Median household income in Graham County, Arizona is $67,325 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.

What is the political history of Graham County, Arizona?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Graham County, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 12 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.