2024 presidential election
Surprise
TrumpR+23.1
Constituent county margins for Surprise, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
| Donald Trump ✓Republican | 61.1% | 49,493 |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala HarrisDemocratic | 38.1% | 30,814 |
| OtherAll other candidates | 0.8% | 651 |
D+60R+60
1 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2008 | −18.4% |
| 2012 | −24.0% |
| 2016 | −23.1% |
| 2020 | −18.7% |
| 2024 | −23.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 30,814 | 49,493 | 80,958 | ||
| R | 29,401 | 43,165 | 73,520 | ||
| R | 18,709 | 30,944 | 52,946 | ||
| R | 16,860 | 27,519 | 44,379 | ||
| R | 17,650 | 25,716 | 43,896 |
Demographics
Demographic profile
Demographic Profile
Key indicators compared across containing geographies
| Indicator | SurpriseCity | ArizonaState | United StatesNation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race & Ethnicity | |||
| White | 71.7% | 59.0% | 61.0% |
| Black | 4.6% | 4.6% | 12.2% |
| Asian | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.0% |
| Two or more races | 13.9% | 19.6% | 12.6% |
| Other race | 6.8% | 13.3% | 8.2% |
| Hispanic or Latino | 20.0% | 31.4% | 19.3% |
| Income & Age | |||
| Median household income | $96,711 | $79,964 | $84,427 |
| Poverty rate | 8.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Median age | 41.4 | 39.3 | 39.1 |
| Age 18–24 | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% |
| Age 65 and older | 16.3% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| Education & Language | |||
| Bachelor's degree or higher (25+) | 30.5% | 33.3% | 35.7% |
| Speaks a non-English language at home | 12.6% | 25.7% | 22.3% |
| Spanish | 7.7% | 19.3% | 13.6% |
| Other Indo-European | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
| Ancestry | |||
| Largest ancestry | German 12.4% | German 12.6% | German 12.5% |
| 2nd-largest ancestry | English 9.8% | English 10.2% | English 9.5% |
| 3rd-largest ancestry | Irish 8.8% | Irish 8.9% | Irish 9.4% |
| Religion | |||
| Catholic | 23.1%County context | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.4%County context | 10.5% | 16.5% |
| Unaffiliated or unclaimed | 52.6%County context | 55.8% | 51.5% |
| Latter-day Saints | 6.0%County context | 6.1% | 2.0% |
ACS values are survey estimates and may include margins of error.
Religion data may be available only at county or larger geographies. Sub-county values are labeled when inherited, modeled, or contextual.
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.4%
English
9.8%
Irish
8.8%
Italian
4.4%
American
4.2%
Polish
2.2%
French
1.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$96,711
Surprise$96,711
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.6%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.4%
Working age (18–64)9.9%
Seniors (65+)10.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
87.4%
speak English only
Spanish7.7%
Other Indo-European1.1%
Russian, Polish, or other Slavic0.7%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)0.7%
Other Asian & Pacific Island0.6%
German or other West Germanic0.4%
Arabic0.4%
Vietnamese0.3%
Other languages0.3%
French (incl. Cajun & Haitian)0.2%
Chinese (incl. Mandarin & Cantonese)0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Unaffiliated or not counted52.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. The unaffiliated-or-not-counted share is everyone not claimed as an adherent by any reporting body — uncounted congregations as well as the religiously unaffiliated.
Surprise sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 24.0 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 23.1 points.
A population of 154,948, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,711 describe the city.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Surprise, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0471510/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Surprise, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Surprise, Arizona voted Republican by 23.1 points (R+23.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 80,958 votes cast, 30,814 went Democratic and 49,493 went Republican.
What is Surprise, Arizona's political typology?
Akashic places Surprise, Arizona in the "" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the city has voted Democratic 0 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Surprise, Arizona?
Surprise, Arizona has a population of 154,948 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Surprise, Arizona?
Median household income in Surprise, Arizona is $96,711 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Surprise, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Surprise, Arizona from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The city's typology — "" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.