Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona
Akashic| Donald Trump ✓Republican | 52.1% | 1,178,457 |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala HarrisDemocratic | 46.9% | 1,060,672 |
| Jill SteinGreen | 1.1% | 24,368 |
County-level results (2 counties) — table
| County | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County, AZ | Republican | R+3.5 |
| Pinal County, AZ | Republican | R+22.1 |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 46.9%Harris1,060,672 | 52.1%Trump1,178,457 | 1.1%Stein24,368 | 2,263,497 | ||
| D | 49.3%Biden1,115,880 | 48.8%Trump1,102,742 | 1.9%Jorgensen42,989 | 2,261,611 | ||
| R | 44.2%Clinton750,799 | 48.3%Trump820,180 | 7.4%Johnson126,401 | 1,697,380 | ||
| R | 43.4%Obama646,594 | 54.5%Romney811,964 | 2.1%Johnson31,083 | 1,489,641 | ||
| R | 44.0%Obama646,420 | 54.8%McCain805,869 | 1.2%Barr17,556 | 1,469,845 | ||
| R | 42.2%Kerry532,101 | 56.9%Bush716,461 | 0.9%Badnarik11,021 | 1,259,583 | ||
| R | 43.1%Gore406,333 | 53.0%Bush500,089 | 3.9%Nader36,567 | 942,989 | ||
| R | 44.9%Clinton383,570 | 46.7%Dole399,049 | 8.4%Perot71,708 | 854,327 | ||
| R | 32.9%Clinton300,925 | 40.7%Bush371,718 | 26.4%Perot240,928 | 913,571 | ||
| R | 34.4%Dukakis244,802 | 64.3%Bush457,303 | 1.2%Paul8,593 | 710,698 | ||
| R | 27.8%Mondale166,756 | 71.3%Reagan428,366 | 1.0%Bergland5,770 | 600,892 | ||
| R | 25.3%Carter128,959 | 64.4%Reagan328,482 | 10.3%Anderson52,651 | 510,092 | ||
| R | 35.3%Carter155,208 | 60.9%Ford267,616 | 3.8%McCarthy16,621 | 439,445 | ||
| R | 27.4%McGovern101,539 | 68.9%Nixon255,177 | 3.7%Schmitz13,843 | 370,559 | ||
| R | 32.2%Humphrey93,613 | 58.1%Nixon169,145 | 9.7%Wallace28,139 | 290,897 | ||
| R | 46.8%Johnson131,953 | 53.2%Goldwater150,070 | 0.1%Hass175 | 282,198 | ||
| R | 41.3%Kennedy94,066 | 58.6%Nixon133,531 | 0.1%Byrd146 | 227,743 | ||
| R | 37.6%Stevenson59,073 | 62.3%Eisenhower97,902 | 0.1%Andrews208 | 157,183 | ||
| R | 40.0%Stevenson54,807 | 60.0%Eisenhower82,234 | 0.0% | 137,041 | ||
| D | 51.9%Truman44,070 | 45.7%Dewey38,817 | 2.3%Thurmond1,992 | 84,879 | ||
| D | 56.6%Roosevelt35,223 | 43.0%Dewey26,762 | 0.4%Thomas230 | 62,215 | ||
| D | 61.2%Roosevelt39,466 | 38.1%Willkie24,606 | 0.7%Thomas436 | 64,508 | ||
| D | 67.7%Roosevelt35,529 | 28.4%Landon14,887 | 3.9%Lemke2,062 | 52,478 | ||
| D | 65.5%Roosevelt31,738 | 33.2%Hoover16,086 | 1.3%Thomas640 | 48,464 | ||
| R | 38.4%Smith13,565 | 61.5%Hoover21,720 | 0.1%Thomas38 | 35,323 | ||
| R | 38.9%Davis10,165 | 44.7%Coolidge11,686 | 16.3%La Follette4,268 | 26,119 | ||
| R | 44.0%Cox10,089 | 56.0%Harding12,829 | 0.0% | 22,918 | ||
| D | 52.7%Wilson8,866 | 39.3%Hughes6,602 | 8.0%Benson1,351 | 16,819 | ||
| D | 45.7%Wilson2,958 | 11.2%Taft722 | 43.2%Roosevelt2,794 | 6,474 | ||
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| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +34.5% |
| 1916 | +13.5% |
| 1920 | −12.0% |
| 1924 | −5.8% |
| 1928 | −23.1% |
| 1932 | +32.3% |
| 1936 | +39.3% |
| 1940 | +23.0% |
| 1944 | +13.6% |
| 1948 | +6.2% |
| 1952 | −20.0% |
| 1956 | −24.7% |
| 1960 | −17.3% |
| 1964 | −6.4% |
| 1968 | −26.0% |
| 1972 | −41.5% |
| 1976 | −25.6% |
| 1980 | −39.1% |
| 1984 | −43.5% |
| 1988 | −29.9% |
| 1992 | −7.7% |
| 1996 | −1.8% |
| 2000 | −9.9% |
| 2004 | −14.6% |
| 2008 | −10.8% |
| 2012 | −11.1% |
| 2016 | −4.1% |
| 2020 | +0.6% |
| 2024 | −5.2% |
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler added roughly 200,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, accelerating a suburban realignment that narrowed once-reliable statewide margins and elevated Maricopa County to one of the most closely watched bellwether counties in the Southwest.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 43.5 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.2 points.
A population of 5,028,754, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $88,457 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX.
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/38060/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.