HarrisDemocratic46.9%1,060,672TrumpRepublican52.1%1,178,457SteinIndependent0.6%12,547
R+5.2- Lead
- 117,785
- Total
- 2,263,967
- vs nation
- R+3.7
Akashicmetro area
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
2 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic49.3%1,115,880TrumpRepublican48.8%1,102,742OtherAll other candidates1.9%42,989
D+0.6- Lead
- 13,138
- Total
- 2,261,611
- vs nation
- R+3.9
ClintonDemocratic44.2%750,799TrumpRepublican48.3%820,180OtherAll other candidates7.4%126,401
R+4.1- Lead
- 69,381
- Total
- 1,697,380
- vs nation
- R+6.2
ObamaDemocratic43.4%646,594RomneyRepublican54.5%811,964OtherAll other candidates2.1%31,083
R+11.1- Lead
- 165,370
- Total
- 1,489,641
- vs nation
- R+15.0
ObamaDemocratic44.0%646,420McCainRepublican54.8%805,869OtherAll other candidates1.2%17,556
R+10.8- Lead
- 159,449
- Total
- 1,469,845
- vs nation
- R+18.1
KerryDemocratic42.2%532,101BushRepublican56.9%716,461OtherAll other candidates0.9%11,021
R+14.6- Lead
- 184,360
- Total
- 1,259,583
- vs nation
- R+12.2
GoreDemocratic43.1%406,333BushRepublican53.0%500,089OtherAll other candidates3.9%36,567
R+9.9- Lead
- 93,756
- Total
- 942,989
- vs nation
- R+10.5
ClintonDemocratic44.9%383,570DoleRepublican46.7%399,049OtherAll other candidates8.4%71,708
R+1.8- Lead
- 15,479
- Total
- 854,327
- vs nation
- R+10.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 5,028,7542024 5-year
- Population density
- 345 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 14,569 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $88,4572024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 31.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39.3 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+43.5 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX · twin score 87.3
presidential history
Party record book
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
67.7%
35,529 votes · D+39.3
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 65.5%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
71.3%
428,366 votes · R+43.5
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 68.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,115,880votes
49.3% of the vote · D+0.6
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 1,060,672 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,178,457votes
52.1% of the vote · R+5.2
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,102,742 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+19.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+5.8 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · +15.1 pts
Republican
Ronald Reagan1980
+29.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+39.1 · U.S. R+9.7
Runner-up · Barry Goldwater, 1964 · +29.0 pts
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+8.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.2
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.8 points.
2,829,868 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+22,256 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +568,727 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +6,079 |
| 2012 | +34,672 |
| 2013 | +30,360 |
| 2014 | +39,914 |
| 2015 | +46,659 |
| 2016 | +53,626 |
| 2017 | +50,769 |
| 2018 | +62,999 |
| 2019 | +71,657 |
| 2021 | +63,240 |
| 2022 | +46,119 |
| 2023 | +19,110 |
| 2024 | +21,267 |
| 2025 | +22,256 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler added roughly 200,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, accelerating a suburban realignment that narrowed once-reliable statewide margins and elevated Maricopa County to one of the most closely watched bellwether counties in the Southwest.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 43.5 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.2 points.
A population of 5,028,754, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $88,457 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX.
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
87.3twin score
population scale12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectory≠ % Asian
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
84.8twin score
population scale12-yr trend% Latino≠ 2008 margin
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
84.0twin score
population scale12-yr trend% Latino≠ % Asian
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/38060/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Republican by 5.2 points (R+5.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,263,967 votes cast, 1,060,672 went Democratic and 1,178,457 went Republican.
When did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona has a population of 5,028,754 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona is $88,457 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.