† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
3 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupPhoenix-Mesa, AZArizonaUnited States
German12.5%12.6%12.5%
English9.8%10.2%9.5%
Irish8.9%8.9%9.4%
Italian4.3%4.1%4.8%
American4.2%4.0%5.3%
Polish2.1%2.0%2.2%
French1.7%1.8%1.6%
Scottish1.6%1.7%1.3%
Mexican26.1%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.7%0.7%1.8%
Spaniard0.5%0.5%—
Spanish0.4%0.4%—
Cuban0.4%0.3%0.7%
Guatemalan0.4%0.4%0.5%
Salvadoran0.4%0.3%0.7%
Colombian0.2%0.2%0.4%
African American†4.5%3.6%9.9%
African0.4%0.3%0.5%
Nigerian0.2%—0.2%
Asian Indian1.2%0.9%1.4%
Filipino0.8%0.7%0.9%
Chinese0.7%0.6%1.3%
Vietnamese0.6%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.3%0.3%0.4%
Japanese0.2%0.2%0.2%
Navajo0.6%1.9%—
Aztec0.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
Arizona
United States
Median age
38
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
9.1%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
16.9%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$88,177
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
11.1%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
35.2%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
25.2%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
18.9%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.3%
1.0%
2.0%
Other languages
1.0%
2.0%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
Arizona
United States
Catholic
22.8%
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
10.9%
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
53.4%
55.8%
51.5%
Latter-day Saints
6.2%
6.1%
2.0%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1912
+32.9%
1916
+19.8%
1920
−10.8%
1924
−4.6%
1928
−19.6%
1932
+33.4%
1936
+40.6%
1940
+24.7%
1944
+15.9%
1948
+8.4%
1952
−18.0%
1956
−23.6%
1960
−16.1%
1964
−5.1%
1968
−24.7%
1972
−40.7%
1976
−24.6%
1980
−38.6%
1984
−42.8%
1988
−29.4%
1992
−7.4%
1996
−1.5%
2000
−9.9%
2004
−14.7%
2008
−11.1%
2012
−11.3%
2016
−4.5%
2020
+0.2%
2024
−5.6%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
46.7%Harris1,069,176
52.2%Trump1,197,358
0.6%Stein12,652 +6
R+5.6
R+5.8
R+4.1
2,291,615
All 9 candidates in 2024 · 7 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican52.2%1,197,358
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic46.7%1,069,176
Jill SteinIndependent0.6%12,652
Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%11,959
Claudia De La CruzIndependent0.0%388
Shiva AyyaduraiIndependent0.0%40
SkousenIndependent0.0%28
SheltonIndependent0.0%10
BoddieIndependent0.0%4
D
49.1%Biden1,124,823
49.0%Trump1,121,119
1.9%
D+0.2
D+4.6
R+4.3
2,289,346
R
44.1%Clinton757,802
48.5%Trump834,362
7.4%
R+4.5
D+6.9
R+6.5
1,719,895
R
43.3%Obama654,291
54.6%Romney825,419
2.1%
R+11.3
R+0.2
R+15.2
1,511,236
R
43.8%Obama654,304
55.0%McCain819,964
1.2%
R+11.1
D+3.6
R+18.4
1,492,178
R
42.2%Kerry540,415
56.9%Bush728,804
0.9%
R+14.7
R+4.8
R+12.3
1,280,460
R
43.1%Gore414,033
53.0%Bush509,247
3.9%
R+9.9
R+8.4
R+10.4
960,725
R
45.0%Clinton392,147
46.5%Dole405,456
8.5%
R+1.5
D+5.9
R+10.0
871,738
R
33.1%Clinton308,496
40.5%Bush377,499
26.4%
R+7.4
D+22.0
R+13.0
932,049
R
34.7%Dukakis251,949
64.1%Bush465,164
1.2%
R+29.4
D+13.4
R+21.6
725,997
R
28.1%Mondale173,265
70.9%Reagan436,909
1.0%
R+42.8
R+4.2
R+24.6
616,141
R
25.6%Carter134,027
64.2%Reagan335,887
10.2%
R+38.6
R+13.9
R+28.8
523,491
R
35.8%Carter161,648
60.4%Ford272,752
3.8%
R+24.6
D+16.1
R+26.7
451,407
R
27.8%McGovern105,834
68.5%Nixon260,850
3.7%
R+40.7
R+16.0
R+17.5
380,931
R
32.7%Humphrey98,444
57.5%Nixon172,755
9.8%
R+24.7
R+19.6
R+24.0
300,603
R
47.4%Johnson138,774
52.5%Goldwater153,783
0.1%
R+5.1
D+10.9
R+27.7
292,735
R
41.9%Kennedy99,317
58.0%Nixon137,337
0.1%
R+16.1
D+7.5
R+16.2
236,808
R
38.1%Stevenson63,099
61.7%Eisenhower102,136
0.1%
R+23.6
R+5.6
R+8.2
165,443
R
41.0%Stevenson59,735
59.0%Eisenhower86,004
0.0%
R+18.0
R+26.4
R+7.3
145,739
D
53.0%Truman48,850
44.7%Dewey41,146
2.3%
D+8.4
R+7.5
D+3.9
92,144
D
57.8%Roosevelt40,041
41.9%Dewey29,022
0.4%
D+15.9
R+8.8
D+8.4
69,322
D
62.0%Roosevelt45,218
37.3%Willkie27,230
0.6%
D+24.7
R+15.9
D+14.7
72,915
D
68.4%Roosevelt40,388
27.8%Landon16,413
3.8%
D+40.6
D+7.2
D+16.3
59,046
D
65.9%Roosevelt36,363
32.5%Hoover17,951
1.6%
D+33.4
D+53.0
D+15.6
55,182
R
40.1%Smith16,906
59.7%Hoover25,156
0.1%
R+19.6
R+15.0
R+2.1
42,113
R
38.1%Davis12,383
42.7%Coolidge13,879
19.1%
R+4.6
D+6.2
D+20.6
32,467
R
44.6%Cox12,983
55.4%Harding16,140
0.0%
R+10.8
R+30.6
D+15.3
29,123
D
55.7%Wilson12,552
35.9%Hughes8,097
8.4%
D+19.8
R+13.2
D+16.6
22,552
O
43.9%Wilson3,737
10.9%Taft932
45.2%
Roosevelt +1.3
—
D+13.4
8,519
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
50.3%1,141,770
47.3%1,073,493
2,269,282
2022
D
51.1%879,566
46.7%803,269
1,719,827
2018
D
50.2%790,799
47.5%748,467
1,575,846
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+8.3
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.6
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.7 points.
Domestic migration in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+5,969
2012
+34,311
2013
+30,412
2014
+40,048
2015
+46,748
2016
+54,214
2017
+51,186
2018
+63,455
2019
+72,161
2021
+64,004
2022
+47,011
2023
+19,682
2024
+21,731
2025
+22,392
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.6 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 42.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the region moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.6 points.
A population of 5,082,549, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $88,177 describe the region. The region's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston-Pasadena, TX and San Antonio-New Braunfels-Kerrville, TX.
Akashic
Political twins — combined metros
The combined metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/csa/429/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
In 2024, Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona voted Republican by 5.6 points (R+5.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,291,615 votes cast, 1,069,176 went Democratic and 1,197,358 went Republican.
When did Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona?
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona has a population of 5,082,549 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona is $88,177 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.
