Phoenix-Mesa, AZ · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
68.4%
40,388 votes · D+40.6
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 65.9%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
70.9%
436,909 votes · R+42.8
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 68.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
1,124,823votes
49.1% of the vote · D+0.2
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 1,069,176 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,197,358votes
52.2% of the vote · R+5.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,121,119 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+20.6pts D vs U.S.
Place R+4.6 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1916 · +16.6 pts
Republican
Ronald Reagan1980
+28.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+38.6 · U.S. R+9.7
Runner-up · Barry Goldwater, 1964 · +27.7 pts
presidential primaries
Nominating contests
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ · how this place’s counties split between candidates in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain and there is no roll-up above it. Each cell counts how many of this place’s counties a candidate led — a count of records, not a vote total. Who led the place as a whole is not knowable from these returns, because county rows carry a leader and a lead but no per-candidate votes.
Presidential nominating contests in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+8.3
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.6
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.7 points.
Domestic migration in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+5,969
2012
+34,311
2013
+30,412
2014
+40,048
2015
+46,748
2016
+54,214
2017
+51,186
2018
+63,455
2019
+72,161
2021
+64,004
2022
+47,011
2023
+19,682
2024
+21,731
2025
+22,392
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.6 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 42.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the region moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.6 points.
A population of 5,082,549, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $88,177 describe the region. The region's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston-Pasadena, TX and San Antonio-New Braunfels-Kerrville, TX.
Akashic
Political twins — combined metros
The combined metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/csa/429/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
In 2024, Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona voted Republican by 5.6 points (R+5.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,291,615 votes cast, 1,069,176 went Democratic and 1,197,358 went Republican.
When did Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona?
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona has a population of 5,082,549 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona is $88,177 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Phoenix-Mesa, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.
