- Lead
- 39,958
- Total
- 163,336
- vs nation
- R+23.0
Arizona 3rd State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 34,093
- Total
- 159,586
- vs nation
- R+25.8
- Lead
- 31,901
- Total
- 124,000
- vs nation
- R+27.8
- Lead
- 38,317
- Total
- 113,172
- vs nation
- R+37.7
- Lead
- 37,894
- Total
- 112,138
- vs nation
- R+41.1
- Lead
- 37,124
- Total
- 98,970
- vs nation
- R+35.1
- Lead
- 24,376
- Total
- 73,340
- vs nation
- R+33.8
- Lead
- 16,447
- Total
- 64,435
- vs nation
- R+34.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+24.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 236,9552024 5-year
- Population density
- 160 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,477 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $132,3322024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+24.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62.5 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 28, AZ · twin score 92.3
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 3rd State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
52.5%
1,829 votes · D+7.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 48.3%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
81.0%
41,102 votes · R+62.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 79.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
61,971votes
38.8% of the vote · R+21.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 61,006 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
100,964votes
61.8% of the vote · R+24.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 96,064 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
+4.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+24.0 · U.S. D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · −12.8 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+54.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+31.6 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +50.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Anchored in rural and exurban terrain, this district delivered a 23-point margin in 2024, placing it well outside the competitive range that defines most Arizona statehouse contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 62.5 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.5 points.
A population of 236,955, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $132,332 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 28 and State House District 4.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 3rd State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/04003/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.