- Lead
- 33,607
- Total
- 145,701
- vs nation
- R+21.6
Arizona 28th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 33,301
- Total
- 143,385
- vs nation
- R+27.7
- Lead
- 30,561
- Total
- 109,486
- vs nation
- R+30.0
- Lead
- 36,082
- Total
- 99,820
- vs nation
- R+40.0
- Lead
- 35,756
- Total
- 99,249
- vs nation
- R+43.3
- Lead
- 34,710
- Total
- 87,637
- vs nation
- R+37.1
- Lead
- 22,957
- Total
- 64,765
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Lead
- 15,634
- Total
- 56,814
- vs nation
- R+36.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+23.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 228,8032024 5-year
- Population density
- 765 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 299 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $87,3262024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+17.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.7 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 10, AZ · twin score 93.4
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 28th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
50.6%
1,593 votes · D+3.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 46.6%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
81.6%
36,917 votes · R+63.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 80.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
55,348votes
38.0% of the vote · R+23.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 54,336 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
88,955votes
61.1% of the vote · R+23.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 87,637 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
−1.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+17.7 · U.S. D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · −20.6 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+56.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+33.5 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +52.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 48.9%47,657 | 51.1%49,873 | 97,530 |
Anchored in the rural and exurban stretches south and east of the Phoenix metro, this district has posted double-digit Republican presidential margins consistently, making it among the least competitive seats in the state legislature.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 17.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 63.7 points in 1984. The 2024 margin was 23.1 points.
A population of 228,803, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,326 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 10 and State House District 19.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 28th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/04028/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.