- Lead
- 25,140
- Total
- 120,448
- vs nation
- R+19.4
Arizona 10th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 24,800
- Total
- 120,284
- vs nation
- R+25.1
- Lead
- 24,203
- Total
- 92,908
- vs nation
- R+28.1
- Lead
- 28,258
- Total
- 82,909
- vs nation
- R+37.9
- Lead
- 27,917
- Total
- 81,686
- vs nation
- R+41.4
- Lead
- 27,093
- Total
- 71,074
- vs nation
- R+35.7
- Lead
- 17,559
- Total
- 53,186
- vs nation
- R+33.5
- Lead
- 11,872
- Total
- 46,539
- vs nation
- R+34.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 235,5792024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,785 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 84.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $80,1442024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 71.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 18.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+15.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62.3 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 28, AZ · twin score 93.4
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 10th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
50.4%
1,129 votes · D+6.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 46.0%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
80.7%
29,379 votes · R+62.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 78.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
46,992votes
39.0% of the vote · R+20.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 46,730 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
72,132votes
59.9% of the vote · R+20.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 71,530 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
−4.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+15.1 · U.S. D+19.5 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · −9.0 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+53.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+31.1 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +49.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+20.9, this district sits well to the right of Arizona's statewide average, suggesting a voter base that has consistently backed Republican candidates across multiple election cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 15.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 62.3 points in 1984. The 2024 margin was 20.9 points.
A population of 235,579, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,144 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 28 and State House District 19.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 10th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/04010/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.