Gilbert, Arizona
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −30.8% |
| 2008 | −26.7% |
| 2012 | −29.7% |
| 2016 | −19.1% |
| 2020 | −12.4% |
| 2024 | −15.9% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 41.5%Harris60,980 | 57.4%Trump84,433 | 1.1% | R+15.9 | R+3.5 | R+14.5 | 147,077 | |
| R | 42.9%Biden61,810 | 55.4%Trump79,676 | 1.7% | R+12.4 | D+6.7 | R+16.9 | 143,912 | |
| R | 36.0%Clinton38,542 | 55.1%Trump59,059 | 8.9% | R+19.1 | D+10.6 | R+21.2 | 107,140 | |
| R | 34.1%Obama30,380 | 63.8%Romney56,892 | 2.1% | R+29.7 | R+3.1 | R+33.6 | 89,130 | |
| R | 36.1%Obama30,114 | 62.8%McCain52,338 | 1.1% | R+26.7 | D+4.1 | R+33.9 | 83,374 | |
| R | 34.5%Kerry25,114 | 65.3%Bush47,472 | 0.2% | R+30.8 | — | R+28.3 | 72,703 |
Gilbert transformed from a small farming town into a 280,000-person city within a single generation, drawing young families and white-collar transplants whose voting patterns have trended more competitive even as the city's Republican baseline remains durable.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 30.8 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.9 points.
A population of 280,262, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $122,551 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Peoria and Mesa.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Gilbert, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0427400/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.