Mesa, Arizona
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −26.2% |
| 2008 | −21.9% |
| 2012 | −23.6% |
| 2016 | −15.8% |
| 2020 | −9.5% |
| 2024 | −11.7% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 43.5%Harris99,742 | 55.2%Trump126,514 | 1.2% | R+11.7 | R+2.2 | R+10.2 | 229,060 | |
| R | 44.3%Biden101,838 | 53.7%Trump123,595 | 2.0% | R+9.5 | D+6.3 | R+13.9 | 229,956 | |
| R | 37.3%Clinton65,099 | 53.1%Trump92,585 | 9.6% | R+15.8 | D+7.9 | R+17.9 | 174,355 | |
| R | 37.1%Obama58,015 | 60.8%Romney94,920 | 2.1% | R+23.6 | R+1.7 | R+27.5 | 156,191 | |
| R | 38.3%Obama61,016 | 60.2%McCain95,983 | 1.5% | R+21.9 | D+4.3 | R+29.2 | 159,331 | |
| R | 36.7%Kerry51,045 | 62.9%Bush87,436 | 0.3% | R+26.2 | — | R+23.7 | 138,909 |
Mesa's rapid expansion beyond its Mormon-settled core has shifted its electorate steadily, with competitive margins in recent cycles replacing the reliably wide Republican leads that defined the city through the 1990s.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 26.2 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.7 points.
A population of 511,764, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,752 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Colorado Springs and Oklahoma City.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Mesa, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0446000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.