HarrisDemocratic58.9%11,265TrumpRepublican40.3%7,699OliverLibertarian0.4%81
D+18.6- Lead
- 3,566
- Total
- 19,121
- vs nation
- D+20.1
- Turnout
- 65.1%
Akashiccounty
Santa Cruz County, AZ
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.1% of 29,832 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic67.1%13,138TrumpRepublican31.6%6,194JorgensenLibertarian1.1%224
D+35.5- Lead
- 6,944
- Total
- 19,581
- vs nation
- D+31.0
- Turnout
- 70.0%
ClintonDemocratic71.1%11,690TrumpRepublican23.7%3,897OtherAll other candidates5.1%846
D+47.4- Lead
- 7,793
- Total
- 16,433
- vs nation
- D+45.3
- Turnout
- 63.2%
ObamaDemocratic68.2%9,486RomneyRepublican30.4%4,235JohnsonLibertarian0.8%108
D+37.7- Lead
- 5,251
- Total
- 13,911
- vs nation
- D+33.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic65.3%8,683McCainRepublican34.0%4,518OtherAll other candidates0.8%102
D+31.3- Lead
- 4,165
- Total
- 13,303
- vs nation
- D+24.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic59.1%6,909BushRepublican39.9%4,668OtherAll other candidates1.0%112
D+19.2- Lead
- 2,241
- Total
- 11,689
- vs nation
- D+21.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic58.8%5,233BushRepublican37.6%3,344NaderGreen2.4%217
D+21.2- Lead
- 1,889
- Total
- 8,893
- vs nation
- D+20.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic64.2%5,241DoleRepublican27.6%2,256PerotReform7.3%600
D+36.5- Lead
- 2,985
- Total
- 8,167
- vs nation
- D+28.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+18.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 48,9262024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,2172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 15.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 82.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47.4 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+21.8 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Presidio County, TX · twin score 95.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.1%19,428 participants ÷ 29,832 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +6.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.3%–46.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 17,156 | 27,153 | 63.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 13,668 | 27,588 | 49.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 19,807 | 28,303 | 70.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 13,308 | 28,834 | 46.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 19,428 | 29,832 | 65.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
48 precincts · 19,153 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -RIO RICO 07RIO RICO 07 | 1,865 | 1,613 | 39 | 3,517 | 53.0% | 45.9% | D+7.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CALABASAS 17CALABASAS 17 | 1,446 | 979 | 29 | 2,454 | 58.9% | 39.9% | D+19.0 |
| Precinct -BACA 19BACA 19 | 1,308 | 799 | 27 | 2,134 | 61.3% | 37.4% | D+23.9 |
| Precinct -TUBAC 11TUBAC 11 | 1,284 | 741 | 16 | 2,041 | 62.9% | 36.3% | D+26.6 |
| Precinct -PECK CANYON 21PECK CANYON 21 | 990 | 655 | 18 | 1,663 | 59.5% | 39.4% | D+20.1 |
| Precinct -CORONADO 05CORONADO 05 | 685 | 361 | 7 | 1,053 | 65.1% | 34.3% | D+30.8 |
| Precinct -SONOITA 15SONOITA 15 | 299 | 620 | 10 | 929 | 32.2% | 66.7% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct -PATAGONIA 14PATAGONIA 14 | 586 | 279 | 12 | 877 | 66.8% | 31.8% | D+35.0 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 20NOGALES 20 | 498 | 198 | 2 | 698 | 71.3% | 28.4% | D+43.0 |
| Precinct -ELGIN 06ELGIN 06 | 241 | 393 | 11 | 645 | 37.4% | 60.9% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 03NOGALES 03 | 367 | 165 | 4 | 536 | 68.5% | 30.8% | D+37.7 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 18NOGALES 18 | 336 | 167 | 6 | 509 | 66.0% | 32.8% | D+33.2 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 12NOGALES 12 | 284 | 108 | 2 | 394 | 72.1% | 27.4% | D+44.7 |
| Precinct -SANTA CRUZ 13SANTA CRUZ 13 | 190 | 155 | 6 | 351 | 54.1% | 44.2% | D+10.0 |
| Precinct -POTRERO 22POTRERO 22 | 208 | 113 | 2 | 323 | 64.4% | 35.0% | D+29.4 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 09NOGALES 09 | 180 | 97 | 6 | 283 | 63.6% | 34.3% | D+29.3 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 16NOGALES 16 | 188 | 88 | 2 | 278 | 67.6% | 31.7% | D+36.0 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 04NOGALES 04 | 198 | 69 | 4 | 271 | 73.1% | 25.5% | D+47.6 |
| Precinct -LAKE PATAGONIA 24LAKE PATAGONIA 24 | 80 | 71 | 0 | 151 | 53.0% | 47.0% | D+6.0 |
| Precinct -MOUNTAIN 23MOUNTAIN 23 | 21 | 25 | 0 | 46 | 45.7% | 54.3% | R+8.7 |
| Baca 19 Voting District04_0402319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Calabasas 17 Voting District04_0402317 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Coronado 5 Voting District04_0402305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elgin 6 Voting District04_0402306 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake Patagonia 24 Voting District04_0402324 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mountain 23 Voting District04_0402323 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 1 Voting District04_0402301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 10 Voting District04_0402310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 12 Voting District04_0402312 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 16 Voting District04_0402316 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 18 Voting District04_0402318 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 2 Voting District04_0402302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 20 Voting District04_0402320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 3 Voting District04_0402303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 4 Voting District04_0402304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 8 Voting District04_0402308 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nogales 9 Voting District04_0402309 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Patagonia 14 Voting District04_0402314 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Peck Canyon 21 Voting District04_0402321 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Potrero 22 Voting District04_0402322 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -NOGALES 01NOGALES 01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -NOGALES 02NOGALES 02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -NOGALES 08NOGALES 08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -NOGALES 10NOGALES 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rio Rico 7 Voting District04_0402307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Santa Cruz 13 Voting District04_0402313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sonoita 15 Voting District04_0402315 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tubac 11 Voting District04_0402311 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +41.4% |
| 1916 | +4.2% |
| 1920 | −9.3% |
| 1924 | +6.5% |
| 1928 | +2.3% |
| 1932 | +43.4% |
| 1936 | +39.0% |
| 1940 | +22.2% |
| 1944 | +27.9% |
| 1948 | +14.5% |
| 1952 | −11.4% |
| 1956 | −18.5% |
| 1960 | +19.2% |
| 1964 | +13.1% |
| 1968 | −4.1% |
| 1972 | −6.6% |
| 1976 | −1.0% |
| 1980 | −11.0% |
| 1984 | −21.8% |
| 1988 | −0.8% |
| 1992 | +6.0% |
| 1996 | +36.5% |
| 2000 | +21.2% |
| 2004 | +19.2% |
| 2008 | +31.3% |
| 2012 | +37.7% |
| 2016 | +47.4% |
| 2020 | +35.5% |
| 2024 | +18.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 11 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Special · Class III | D | 70.6%Mark Kelly13,689 | 29.3%Martha McSally5,685 | 19,376 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+23.1
Presidential vote · 2024D+18.6
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 4.5 points more Democratic.
32,699 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−161 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −5,048 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $58,108 in average income, against $59,335 for residents who stayed — 2% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+11.3 on average — 7.3 points more Republican-leaning than Santa Cruz County, AZ itself (D+18.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Pima County, AZ446D+15.2
- Maricopa County, AZ158R+3.5
- Los Angeles County, CA23D+32.9
- San Diego County, CA23D+16.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Pima County, AZ574
- Maricopa County, AZ213
- Cochise County, AZ25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −261 |
| 2012 | −715 |
| 2013 | −855 |
| 2014 | −787 |
| 2015 | −718 |
| 2016 | −557 |
| 2017 | −264 |
| 2018 | −551 |
| 2019 | −257 |
| 2021 | +53 |
| 2022 | +173 |
| 2023 | −9 |
| 2024 | −139 |
| 2025 | −161 |
Santa Cruz sits on Arizona's southern border with Nogales as its seat, and its heavily Hispanic population has delivered Democratic presidential margins above 15 points in each of the last several cycles, making it one of the state's most consistently blue counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.4 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 21.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 16.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.6 points.
A population of 48,926, a 15% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,217 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Presidio County and Imperial County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Presidio County
Texas
95.9twin score
% Latino% Catholic2016–2020 trajectory≠ population scale
Imperial County
California
95.8twin score
% Catholic2012–2016 trajectory% Latino≠ elasticity
San Miguel County
New Mexico
94.5twin score
2016–2020 trajectory% Catholic% Latino≠ 2000 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Santa Cruz County, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/04023/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Santa Cruz County
Arizona at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Santa Cruz County, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Santa Cruz County, Arizona voted Democratic by 18.6 points (D+18.6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,121 votes cast, 11,265 went Democratic and 7,699 went Republican.
When did Santa Cruz County, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Santa Cruz County, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Santa Cruz County, Arizona?
Santa Cruz County, Arizona has a population of 48,926 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Santa Cruz County, Arizona?
Median household income in Santa Cruz County, Arizona is $55,217 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Santa Cruz County, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Santa Cruz County, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.