AkashicArizona — Governor
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 79% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 8-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Katie HobbsDIncumbentPresumptive |
| Andy BiggsR |
| David SchweikertR |
| Barry HessLibertarian |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) is running for re-election and is unopposed in the Democratic primary (presumptive nominee). GOP primary is July 21, 2026 (NOT yet held): U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs (Trump-endorsed frontrunner) and David Schweikert are the two major candidates. Karrin Taylor Robson withdrew Feb 12, 2026. Libertarian Barry Hess is a settled third-party candidate; multiple Green Party hopefuls are still competing in their own primary so no single Green general candidate is fixed. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AZ state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Katie HobbsD | D+1 |
| 2018 | Doug DuceyR | R+14 |
| 2014 | Doug DuceyR | R+12 |
| 2010 | Jan BrewerR | R+12 |
| 2006 | Janet NapolitanoD | D+27 |
| 2002 | Janet NapolitanoD | D+1 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →