Tucson, Arizona
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +20.4% |
| 2008 | +20.7% |
| 2012 | +23.6% |
| 2016 | +29.7% |
| 2020 | +34.5% |
| 2024 | +29.6% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 64.1%Harris144,275 | 34.5%Trump77,710 | 1.4% | D+29.6 | R+4.9 | D+31.0 | 225,089 | |
| D | 66.4%Biden157,834 | 31.9%Trump75,916 | 1.6% | D+34.5 | D+4.8 | D+30.0 | 237,630 | |
| D | 61.2%Clinton117,541 | 31.4%Trump60,418 | 7.4% | D+29.7 | D+6.1 | D+27.6 | 192,198 | |
| D | 60.9%Obama104,287 | 37.2%Romney63,786 | 1.9% | D+23.6 | D+2.9 | D+19.8 | 171,266 | |
| D | 59.6%Obama110,601 | 38.9%McCain72,175 | 1.4% | D+20.7 | D+0.3 | D+13.4 | 185,455 | |
| D | 59.6%Kerry103,419 | 39.2%Bush67,936 | 1.2% | D+20.4 | — | D+22.9 | 173,513 |
Home to the University of Arizona and a majority-minority population that is roughly 43% Hispanic, Tucson anchors Democratic strength in southern Arizona while sitting within a broader metro that remains closely contested at the statewide level.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 34.5 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.6 points.
A population of 547,073, a 44% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,073 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston and Albuquerque.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Tucson, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0477000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.