Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
presidential margin
2008D+3.92012D+4.72016D+11.12020D+15.32024D+11.5
full record · 1912 → 2024
D+11.5
2024
median income$68,642U.S. $80,734 · AZ $79,964
median age40.1U.S. 39.1 · AZ 39.3
poverty rate14.6%U.S. 12.5% · AZ 12.5%
bachelor’s+ (25+)35.4%U.S. 35.6% · AZ 33.5%
non-english27.9%U.S. 22.3% · AZ 25.8%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
German12.8%
English10.6%
Irish8.9%
Mexican33.8%
Puerto Rican0.9%
Spaniard0.7%
African American†2.5%
African0.3%
Filipino0.6%
Chinese0.6%
Asian Indian0.4%
Tohono O'odham0.8%
Navajo0.3%
religion
other traditions
Mainline2.3%
Other Christian1.3%
Muslim0.9%
Black Protestant0.6%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona

Akashic
Tucson (Sierra Vista)HarrisD+11.5
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Tucson (Sierra Vista), AZA map of the constituent counties of Tucson (Sierra Vista), AZ, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Cochise County, AZ · R+23.1Santa Cruz County, AZ · D+18.6Pima County, AZ · D+15.2
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic55.1%326,011
Donald TrumpRepublican43.7%258,304
Jill SteinGreen1.2%6,905
D+60
R+60
3 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
County-level results (3 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Tucson (Sierra Vista), AZ — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Cochise County, AZRepublicanR+23.1
Pima County, AZDemocraticD+15.2
Santa Cruz County, AZDemocraticD+18.6
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
D
55.1%Harris326,011
43.7%Trump258,304
1.2%Stein6,905
+11.5%
591,220
D
56.7%Biden341,851
41.4%Trump249,509
1.8%Jorgensen11,060
+15.3%
602,420
D
52.0%Clinton253,801
40.9%Trump199,417
7.1%Johnson34,870
+11.1%
488,088
D
51.4%Obama229,283
46.7%Romney208,511
1.9%Johnson8,491
+4.7%
446,285
D
51.3%Obama233,880
47.4%McCain215,950
1.3%Barr5,721
+3.9%
455,551
D
51.3%Kerry217,551
47.7%Bush202,333
0.9%Badnarik3,892
+3.6%
423,776
D
50.4%Gore166,281
44.3%Bush146,103
5.3%Nader17,390
+6.1%
329,774
D
51.5%Clinton157,006
39.6%Dole120,742
8.8%Perot26,894
+11.9%
304,642
D
44.9%Clinton144,782
34.8%Bush112,262
20.3%Perot65,670
+10.1%
322,714
R
47.9%Dukakis128,904
50.9%Bush137,034
1.2%Paul3,275
−3.0%
269,213
R
41.4%Mondale103,719
57.6%Reagan144,090
1.0%Bergland2,547
−16.1%
250,356
R
34.2%Carter73,535
50.8%Reagan109,080
15.0%Anderson32,227
−16.5%
214,842
R
46.1%Carter82,760
49.8%Ford89,497
4.1%McCarthy7,425
−3.7%
179,682
R
34.9%McGovern64,112
47.4%Nixon86,997
17.6%Schmitz32,379
−12.5%
183,488
R
40.6%Humphrey47,940
49.8%Nixon58,800
9.6%Wallace11,270
−9.2%
118,010
D
53.6%Johnson65,120
46.2%Goldwater56,102
0.2%Hass213
+7.4%
121,435
R
48.0%Kennedy51,458
51.8%Nixon55,571
0.2%Byrd257
−3.8%
107,286
R
38.5%Stevenson29,995
61.4%Eisenhower47,837
0.1%Andrews61
−22.9%
77,893
R
41.2%Stevenson28,242
58.8%Eisenhower40,324
0.0%
−17.6%
68,566
D
52.2%Truman25,314
45.1%Dewey21,880
2.7%Thurmond1,320
+7.1%
48,514
D
58.6%Roosevelt21,232
41.2%Dewey14,948
0.2%Thomas74
+17.3%
36,254
D
64.0%Roosevelt24,319
35.7%Willkie13,593
0.3%Thomas116
+28.2%
38,028
D
69.9%Roosevelt22,108
28.2%Landon8,913
1.9%Lemke598
+41.7%
31,619
D
65.6%Roosevelt20,465
30.8%Hoover9,615
3.6%Thomas1,123
+34.8%
31,203
R
43.2%Smith10,200
56.4%Hoover13,330
0.4%Thomas90
−13.3%
23,620
R
34.5%Davis6,763
40.1%Coolidge7,850
25.4%La Follette4,975
−5.5%
19,588
R
44.2%Cox7,591
55.8%Harding9,583
0.0%
−11.6%
17,174
D
54.1%Wilson8,920
39.3%Hughes6,485
6.6%Benson1,091
+14.8%
16,496
O
42.3%Wilson2,916
11.8%Taft812
45.9%Roosevelt3,164
Roosevelt +3.6
6,892
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presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1912 to 2024. Most recent: +11.5% in 2024.flipped D · 1992+11.5%DR19122024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1912+30.5%
1916+14.8%
1920−11.6%
1924−5.5%
1928−13.3%
1932+34.8%
1936+41.7%
1940+28.2%
1944+17.3%
1948+7.1%
1952−17.6%
1956−22.9%
1960−3.8%
1964+7.4%
1968−9.2%
1972−12.5%
1976−3.7%
1980−16.5%
1984−16.1%
1988−3.0%
1992+10.1%
1996+11.9%
2000+6.1%
2004+3.6%
2008+3.9%
2012+4.7%
2016+11.1%
2020+15.3%
2024+11.5%
DemocraticRepublican

Fort Huachuca anchors Sierra Vista's economy and voter base, while Tucson's expanding Latino electorate and University of Arizona enrollment make this media market one of the more demographically complex in the Southwest.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.7 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 22.9 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 3.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.5 points.

A population of 1,234,982, a 50% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,642 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and Monterey-Salinas.

Political twins — media markets

The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo
California
79.7twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Monterey-Salinas
California
72.3twin score
% Latino% Evangelical% White≠ 2008 margin
Portland, OR
70.2twin score
2000–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/789/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Tucson (Sierra Vista)

counties3
Cochise CountyPima CountySanta Cruz County

Frequently asked questions

How did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Democratic by 11.5 points (D+11.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 591,220 votes cast, 326,011 went Democratic and 258,304 went Republican.
When did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona has a population of 1,234,982 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona is $68,642 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.