† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
2 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupTucson-Nogales, AZArizonaUnited States
German12.7%12.6%12.5%
English10.4%10.2%9.5%
Irish8.9%8.9%9.4%
Italian4.0%4.1%4.8%
American3.2%4.0%5.3%
Polish2.2%2.0%2.2%
Scottish2.0%1.7%1.3%
French1.9%1.8%1.6%
Mexican34.1%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.9%0.7%1.8%
Spaniard0.7%0.5%—
Spanish0.5%0.4%—
Cuban0.3%0.3%0.7%
Salvadoran0.2%0.3%0.7%
Guatemalan0.2%0.4%0.5%
Colombian0.2%0.2%0.4%
African American†2.5%3.6%9.9%
African0.3%0.3%0.5%
Chinese0.7%0.6%1.3%
Filipino0.6%0.7%0.9%
Asian Indian0.5%0.9%1.4%
Vietnamese0.3%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.3%0.3%0.4%
Japanese0.2%0.2%0.2%
Tohono O'odham0.9%0.2%—
Navajo0.3%1.9%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Tucson-Nogales, AZ
Arizona
United States
Median age
39.7
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
11.4%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
21.5%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Tucson-Nogales, AZ
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$69,649
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
14.6%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
36.2%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Tucson-Nogales, AZ
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
28.0%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
23.3%
19.3%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
Tucson-Nogales, AZ
Arizona
United States
Catholic
21.5%
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
10.2%
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
59.0%
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Tucson-Nogales, AZ
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1912
+23.5%
1916
−7.5%
1920
−14.6%
1924
−8.8%
1928
−11.9%
1932
+29.5%
1936
+33.9%
1940
+19.7%
1944
+10.5%
1948
+2.9%
1952
−19.9%
1956
−24.8%
1960
−4.3%
1964
+7.3%
1968
−9.7%
1972
−10.4%
1976
−3.8%
1980
−15.2%
1984
−15.0%
1988
−1.7%
1992
+11.1%
1996
+13.5%
2000
+8.4%
2004
+6.4%
2008
+6.9%
2012
+8.0%
2016
+14.8%
2020
+19.2%
2024
+15.3%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
57.1%Harris303,715
41.8%Trump222,368
0.6%Stein3,285 +1
D+15.3
R+3.9
D+16.8
532,297
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic57.1%303,715
Donald J TrumpRepublican41.8%222,368
Jill SteinIndependent0.6%3,285
Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%2,929
D
58.7%Biden318,119
39.5%Trump213,952
1.8%
D+19.2
D+4.4
D+14.8
541,755
D
54.0%Clinton236,351
39.1%Trump171,325
6.9%
D+14.8
D+6.9
D+12.8
438,073
D
53.1%Obama210,737
45.1%Romney179,014
1.8%
D+8.0
D+1.1
D+4.1
397,084
D
52.8%Obama214,937
46.0%McCain186,924
1.2%
D+6.9
D+0.5
R+0.4
406,731
D
52.8%Kerry200,037
46.4%Bush175,777
0.9%
D+6.4
R+2.0
D+8.9
379,181
D
51.6%Gore152,921
43.1%Bush127,923
5.3%
D+8.4
R+5.1
D+7.9
296,533
D
52.5%Clinton143,224
39.0%Dole106,377
8.5%
D+13.5
D+2.5
D+5.0
272,719
D
45.6%Clinton132,081
34.6%Bush100,060
19.8%
D+11.1
D+12.8
D+5.5
289,564
R
48.6%Dukakis117,092
50.3%Bush121,219
1.2%
R+1.7
D+13.3
D+6.0
241,163
R
42.0%Mondale94,048
57.0%Reagan127,685
1.0%
R+15.0
D+0.2
D+3.2
224,001
R
34.6%Carter66,507
49.8%Reagan95,729
15.7%
R+15.2
R+11.4
R+5.5
192,397
R
46.0%Carter73,479
49.8%Ford79,576
4.2%
R+3.8
D+6.6
R+5.9
159,799
R
35.2%McGovern58,089
45.6%Nixon75,291
19.3%
R+10.4
R+0.7
D+12.7
165,189
R
40.8%Humphrey41,343
50.5%Nixon51,181
8.7%
R+9.7
R+17.0
R+9.0
101,299
D
53.5%Johnson56,075
46.3%Goldwater48,458
0.2%
D+7.3
D+11.6
R+15.3
104,738
R
47.7%Kennedy44,039
52.0%Nixon47,999
0.3%
R+4.3
D+20.5
R+4.5
92,279
R
37.6%Stevenson24,667
62.4%Eisenhower40,944
0.1%
R+24.8
R+4.9
R+9.4
65,663
R
40.1%Stevenson22,602
59.9%Eisenhower33,829
0.0%
R+19.9
R+22.8
R+9.1
56,431
D
50.1%Truman19,116
47.3%Dewey18,026
2.6%
D+2.9
R+7.6
R+1.6
38,144
D
55.1%Roosevelt14,297
44.6%Dewey11,577
0.2%
D+10.5
R+9.3
D+3.0
25,935
D
59.7%Roosevelt15,571
40.0%Willkie10,423
0.3%
D+19.7
R+14.1
D+9.8
26,078
D
66.2%Roosevelt13,978
32.3%Landon6,821
1.5%
D+33.9
D+4.4
D+9.6
21,120
D
63.4%Roosevelt12,667
33.9%Hoover6,777
2.7%
D+29.5
D+41.4
D+11.7
19,987
R
43.9%Smith5,938
55.8%Hoover7,554
0.3%
R+11.9
R+3.1
D+5.5
13,537
R
33.0%Davis3,267
41.8%Coolidge4,138
25.1%
R+8.8
D+5.8
D+16.4
9,889
R
42.7%Cox3,161
57.3%Harding4,242
0.0%
R+14.6
R+7.1
D+11.6
7,403
R
44.1%Wilson2,805
51.6%Hughes3,282
4.4%
R+7.5
R+31.0
R+10.6
6,364
D
41.5%Wilson943
18.0%Taft409
40.5%
D+23.5
—
D+3.9
2,273
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
D
59.1%310,737
37.9%199,391
525,440
2022
D
62.1%257,218
35.9%148,828
414,287
2018
D
57.0%230,483
40.7%164,378
404,056
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+9.0
vs
Presidential vote · 2024D+15.3
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 6.3 points more Republican.
Domestic migration in Tucson-Nogales, AZ in Tucson-Nogales, AZ: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+639
2012
−1,398
2013
−2,652
2014
+16
2015
−1,465
2016
+2,206
2017
+5,812
2018
+7,475
2019
+8,544
2021
+5,333
2022
+8,063
2023
+3,795
2024
+3,826
2025
−511
Tucson-Nogales, AZ sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 24.8 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the region moved 3.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.3 points.
A population of 1,109,416, a 49% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,649 describe the region. The region's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Los Alamos, NM and Edwards-Rifle, CO.
Akashic
Political twins — combined metros
The combined metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/csa/536/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
In 2024, Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 15.3 points (D+15.3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 532,297 votes cast, 303,715 went Democratic and 222,368 went Republican.
When did Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona has a population of 1,109,416 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona is $69,649 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.
