akashic
1876–2024
Tucson-Nogales, AZ·Arizona

Tucson-Nogales, AZ has voted Democratic in nine straight presidential elections — D+15.2 in 2024.

2008 — 2024·5 elections
AZ
2024 presidential election
Tucson-Nogales, AZ
HarrisD+15.2
2024 presidential margin by county for Tucson-Nogales, AZ, AZA map of the constituent counties of Tucson-Nogales, AZ, AZ, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Santa Cruz County, AZ · D+18.6Pima County, AZ · D+15.1
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic56.9%303,715
Donald TrumpRepublican41.6%222,368
OtherAll other candidates1.5%8,111
D+60
R+60
2 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: +15.2% in 2024.flipped D · 1992+15.2%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884No data
1888No data
1892No data
1896No data
1900No data
1904No data
1908No data
1912+23.5%
1916−7.5%
1920−14.6%
1924−8.8%
1928−11.9%
1932+29.5%
1936+33.9%
1940+19.7%
1944+10.5%
1948+2.9%
1952−19.9%
1956−24.8%
1960−4.3%
1964+7.3%
1968−9.7%
1972−10.4%
1976−3.8%
1980−15.2%
1984−15.0%
1988−1.7%
1992+11.1%
1996+13.5%
2000+8.4%
2004+6.4%
2008+6.9%
2012+8.0%
2016+14.8%
2020+19.2%
2024+15.2%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+15.2%
303,715222,368534,194
D
+19.2%
318,119213,952541,755
D
+14.8%
236,351171,325438,073
D
+8.0%
210,737179,014397,084
D
+6.9%
214,937186,924406,731
D
+6.4%
200,037175,777379,181
D
+8.4%
152,921127,923296,533
D
+13.5%
143,224106,377272,719
D
+11.1%
132,081100,060289,564
R
−1.7%
117,092121,219241,163
R
−15.0%
94,048127,685224,001
R
−15.2%
66,50795,729192,397
R
−3.8%
73,47979,576159,799
R
−10.4%
58,08975,291165,189
R
−9.7%
41,34351,181101,299
D
+7.3%
56,07548,458104,738
R
−4.3%
44,03947,99992,279
R
−24.8%
24,66740,94465,663
R
−19.9%
22,60233,82956,431
D
+2.9%
19,11618,02638,144
D
+10.5%
14,29711,57725,935
D
+19.7%
15,57110,42326,078
D
+33.9%
13,9786,82121,120
D
+29.5%
12,6676,77719,987
R
−11.9%
5,9387,55413,537
R
−8.8%
3,2674,1389,889
R
−14.6%
3,1614,2427,403
R
−7.5%
2,8053,2826,364
D
+23.5%
9434092,273
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Demographics

Demographic profile

Demographic Profile

Key indicators compared across containing geographies

Demographic Profile. Key indicators compared across containing geographies. ACS values are survey estimates and may include margins of error. Religion data may be available only at county or larger geographies. Sub-county values are labeled when inherited, modeled, or contextual.
IndicatorTucson-Nogales, AZCombined statistical areaArizonaStateUnited StatesNation
Race & Ethnicity
White57.8%59.0%61.0%
Black3.5%4.6%12.2%
Asian3.0%3.6%6.0%
Two or more races22.5%19.6%12.6%
Other race13.3%13.3%8.2%
Hispanic or Latino38.4%31.4%19.3%
Income & Age
Median household income$69,649$79,964$84,427
Poverty rate14.6%12.5%12.5%
Median age39.739.339.1
Age 18–2411.4%9.5%9.2%
Age 65 and older21.5%18.9%17.2%
Education & Language
Speaks a non-English language at home28.0%25.8%22.3%
Ancestry
Largest ancestryGerman 12.7%German 12.6%German 12.5%
2nd-largest ancestryEnglish 10.4%English 10.2%English 9.5%
3rd-largest ancestryIrish 8.9%Irish 8.9%Irish 9.4%
Religion
Catholic21.5%21.3%18.6%
Evangelical Protestant10.2%10.5%16.5%
Unaffiliated or unclaimed59.0%55.8%51.5%

ACS values are survey estimates and may include margins of error.

Religion data may be available only at county or larger geographies. Sub-county values are labeled when inherited, modeled, or contextual.

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.7%
English
10.4%
Irish
8.9%
Italian
4.0%
American
3.2%
Polish
2.2%
Scottish
2.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.4%
3.3%
75–84
3.8%
5.6%
65–74
6.5%
5.7%
55–64
6.2%
5.3%
45–54
5.4%
5.9%
35–44
5.7%
6.8%
25–34
6.3%
5.8%
18–24
5.6%
7.6%
5–17
7.3%
2.5%
<5
2.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$69,649
Tucson-Nogales, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tucson-Nogales, AZ$69,649
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.6%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.0%
Working age (18–64)14.1%
Seniors (65+)9.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
72.0%
speak English only
Spanish23.3%
Other Indo-European1.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.7%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic
21.5%
Evangelical Protestant
10.2%
Latter-day Saints
2.7%
Mainline Protestant
2.3%
Other Christian
1.2%
Muslim
1.0%
Black Protestant
0.6%
Hindu
0.4%
Jewish
0.4%
Buddhist
0.3%
Other faiths
0.2%
Orthodox Christian
0.2%
Unaffiliated or not counted59.0%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. The unaffiliated-or-not-counted share is everyone not claimed as an adherent by any reporting body — uncounted congregations as well as the religiously unaffiliated.

Tucson-Nogales, AZ sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 24.8 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the region moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.2 points.

A population of 1,109,416, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,649 describe the region.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/csa/536/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 15.2 points (D+15.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 534,194 votes cast, 303,715 went Democratic and 222,368 went Republican.
What is Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona's political typology?
Akashic places Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona in the "" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the region has voted Democratic 16 times, Republican 13 times, and other 0 times.
When did Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona has a population of 1,109,416 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona is $69,649 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The region's typology — "" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.