HarrisDemocratic58.9%11,265TrumpRepublican40.3%7,699OliverLibertarian0.4%81
D+18.6- Lead
- 3,566
- Total
- 19,121
- vs nation
- D+20.1
Akashicmetro area
Nogales, AZ
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
1 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
BidenDemocratic67.1%13,138TrumpRepublican31.6%6,194OtherAll other candidates1.3%249
D+35.5- Lead
- 6,944
- Total
- 19,581
- vs nation
- D+31.0
ClintonDemocratic71.1%11,690TrumpRepublican23.7%3,897OtherAll other candidates5.1%846
D+47.4- Lead
- 7,793
- Total
- 16,433
- vs nation
- D+45.3
ObamaDemocratic68.2%9,486RomneyRepublican30.4%4,235OtherAll other candidates1.4%190
D+37.7- Lead
- 5,251
- Total
- 13,911
- vs nation
- D+33.9
ObamaDemocratic65.3%8,683McCainRepublican34.0%4,518OtherAll other candidates0.8%102
D+31.3- Lead
- 4,165
- Total
- 13,303
- vs nation
- D+24.0
KerryDemocratic59.1%6,909BushRepublican39.9%4,668OtherAll other candidates1.0%112
D+19.2- Lead
- 2,241
- Total
- 11,689
- vs nation
- D+21.6
GoreDemocratic58.8%5,233BushRepublican37.6%3,344OtherAll other candidates3.6%316
D+21.2- Lead
- 1,889
- Total
- 8,893
- vs nation
- D+20.7
ClintonDemocratic64.2%5,241DoleRepublican27.6%2,256OtherAll other candidates8.2%670
D+36.5- Lead
- 2,985
- Total
- 8,167
- vs nation
- D+28.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+18.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 48,9262024 5-year
- Population density
- 40 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,236 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $55,2172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 15.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 82.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47.4 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+21.8 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- El Centro, CA · twin score 95.0
presidential history
Party record book
Nogales, AZ · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
71.1%
11,690 votes · D+47.4
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 71.1%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
60.3%
3,855 votes · R+21.8
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 59.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
13,138votes
67.1% of the vote · D+35.5
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 11,690 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
7,699votes
40.3% of the vote · D+18.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 6,194 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
+45.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+47.4 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +33.9 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+9.5pts R vs U.S.
Place D+13.1 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · +3.6 pts
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+23.1
Presidential vote · 2024D+18.6
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 4.5 points more Republican than the rolls.
32,699 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−161 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −5,048 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −261 |
| 2012 | −715 |
| 2013 | −855 |
| 2014 | −787 |
| 2015 | −718 |
| 2016 | −557 |
| 2017 | −264 |
| 2018 | −551 |
| 2019 | −257 |
| 2021 | +53 |
| 2022 | +173 |
| 2023 | −9 |
| 2024 | −139 |
| 2025 | −161 |
Nogales anchors one of the busiest land ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, and its heavily Latino electorate — over 95% Hispanic by census estimates — produces some of Arizona's most lopsided Democratic margins in federal races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.4 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 21.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 16.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.6 points.
A population of 48,926, a 15% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,217 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of El Centro, CA and Española, NM.
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
El Centro, CA
95.0twin score
% Catholic% Latino2012–2016 trajectory≠ elasticity
Española, NM
93.0twin score
% Catholic2016–2020 trajectory% Latino≠ elasticity
Alice, TX
93.0twin score
% Latino% Catholic% White≠ 2020 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Nogales, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/35700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Nogales, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 18.6 points (D+18.6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,121 votes cast, 11,265 went Democratic and 7,699 went Republican.
When did Nogales, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Nogales, AZ, Arizona has a population of 48,926 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Nogales, AZ, Arizona is $55,217 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Nogales, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.