Nogales, AZ, Arizona
Akashic| Kamala Harris ✓Democratic | 58.9% | 11,265 |
|---|---|---|
| Donald TrumpRepublican | 40.3% | 7,699 |
| Jill SteinGreen | 0.8% | 157 |
County-level results (1 county) — table
| County | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz County, AZ | Democratic | D+18.6 |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 58.9%Harris11,265 | 40.3%Trump7,699 | 0.8%Stein157 | 19,121 | ||
| D | 67.1%Biden13,138 | 31.6%Trump6,194 | 1.3%Jorgensen249 | 19,581 | ||
| D | 71.1%Clinton11,690 | 23.7%Trump3,897 | 5.1%Johnson846 | 16,433 | ||
| D | 68.2%Obama9,486 | 30.4%Romney4,235 | 1.4%Johnson190 | 13,911 | ||
| D | 65.3%Obama8,683 | 34.0%McCain4,518 | 0.8%Barr102 | 13,303 | ||
| D | 59.1%Kerry6,909 | 39.9%Bush4,668 | 1.0%Badnarik112 | 11,689 | ||
| D | 58.8%Gore5,233 | 37.6%Bush3,344 | 3.6%Nader316 | 8,893 | ||
| D | 64.2%Clinton5,241 | 27.6%Dole2,256 | 8.2%Perot670 | 8,167 | ||
| D | 43.5%Clinton3,512 | 37.4%Bush3,024 | 19.1%Perot1,544 | 8,080 | ||
| R | 48.8%Dukakis3,268 | 49.6%Bush3,320 | 1.5%Paul102 | 6,690 | ||
| R | 38.6%Mondale2,463 | 60.3%Reagan3,855 | 1.1%Bergland71 | 6,389 | ||
| R | 39.1%Carter2,089 | 50.1%Reagan2,674 | 10.8%Anderson577 | 5,340 | ||
| R | 47.8%Carter2,265 | 48.8%Ford2,312 | 3.4%McCarthy161 | 4,738 | ||
| R | 45.7%McGovern1,866 | 52.4%Nixon2,137 | 1.9%Schmitz76 | 4,079 | ||
| R | 44.1%Humphrey1,557 | 48.2%Nixon1,702 | 7.8%Wallace274 | 3,533 | ||
| D | 56.5%Johnson1,955 | 43.4%Goldwater1,503 | 0.1%Hass2 | 3,460 | ||
| D | 59.6%Kennedy1,868 | 40.4%Nixon1,265 | 0.1%Byrd2 | 3,135 | ||
| R | 40.7%Stevenson1,131 | 59.3%Eisenhower1,646 | 0.0%Andrews1 | 2,778 | ||
| R | 44.3%Stevenson1,365 | 55.7%Eisenhower1,716 | 0.0% | 3,081 | ||
| D | 56.5%Truman1,424 | 42.0%Dewey1,058 | 1.5%Thurmond37 | 2,519 | ||
| D | 63.8%Roosevelt1,291 | 36.0%Dewey727 | 0.2%Thomas4 | 2,022 | ||
| D | 61.0%Roosevelt1,536 | 38.9%Willkie978 | 0.1%Thomas2 | 2,516 | ||
| D | 68.3%Roosevelt1,729 | 29.3%Landon742 | 2.3%Lemke59 | 2,530 | ||
| D | 71.1%Roosevelt1,606 | 27.7%Hoover625 | 1.3%Thomas29 | 2,260 | ||
| D | 51.1%Smith962 | 48.8%Hoover919 | 0.2%Thomas3 | 1,884 | ||
| D | 46.4%Davis673 | 39.9%Coolidge579 | 13.7%La Follette198 | 1,450 | ||
| R | 45.4%Cox706 | 54.6%Harding850 | 0.0% | 1,556 | ||
| D | 50.3%Wilson726 | 46.2%Hughes666 | 3.5%Benson50 | 1,442 | ||
| D | 53.3%Wilson250 | 11.9%Taft56 | 34.8%Roosevelt163 | 469 | ||
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| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +41.4% |
| 1916 | +4.2% |
| 1920 | −9.3% |
| 1924 | +6.5% |
| 1928 | +2.3% |
| 1932 | +43.4% |
| 1936 | +39.0% |
| 1940 | +22.2% |
| 1944 | +27.9% |
| 1948 | +14.5% |
| 1952 | −11.4% |
| 1956 | −18.5% |
| 1960 | +19.2% |
| 1964 | +13.1% |
| 1968 | −4.1% |
| 1972 | −6.6% |
| 1976 | −1.0% |
| 1980 | −11.0% |
| 1984 | −21.8% |
| 1988 | −0.8% |
| 1992 | +6.0% |
| 1996 | +36.5% |
| 2000 | +21.2% |
| 2004 | +19.2% |
| 2008 | +31.3% |
| 2012 | +37.7% |
| 2016 | +47.4% |
| 2020 | +35.5% |
| 2024 | +18.6% |
Nogales anchors one of the busiest land ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, and its heavily Latino electorate — over 95% Hispanic by census estimates — produces some of Arizona's most lopsided Democratic margins in federal races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.4 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 21.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 16.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.6 points.
A population of 48,926, a 15% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,217 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of El Centro, CA and Española, NM.
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Nogales, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/35700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.