- Lead
- 10,171
- Total
- 108,119
- vs nation
- R+7.9
Arizona 16th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 3,804
- Total
- 97,388
- vs nation
- R+8.4
- Lead
- 4,433
- Total
- 71,686
- vs nation
- R+8.3
- Lead
- 3,333
- Total
- 61,457
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Lead
- 2,436
- Total
- 60,546
- vs nation
- R+11.3
- Lead
- 1,421
- Total
- 42,137
- vs nation
- R+0.9
- Lead
- 1,616
- Total
- 29,002
- vs nation
- D+5.1
- Lead
- 4,842
- Total
- 26,095
- vs nation
- D+10.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+9.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 236,9402024 5-year
- Population density
- 79 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2,999 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $76,2492024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 45.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 34.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+51.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+16.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 23, AZ · twin score 84.6
presidential history
Party record book
Arizona 16th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
75.0%
1,742 votes · D+51.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 72.8%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
55.8%
11,626 votes · R+12.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 54.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
48,386votes
44.8% of the vote · R+9.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 46,041 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
58,557votes
54.2% of the vote · R+9.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 49,845 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+33.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+51.4 · U.S. D+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · +30.5 pts
Republican
John McCain2008
+11.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+4.0 · U.S. D+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · +9.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Carried Republican by double digits in recent cycles, this district blends outer-ring Phoenix suburbs with rural stretches, producing a consistent conservative lean that has made it a low-volatility seat in statewide targeting maps.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 51.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 16.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 9.4 points.
A population of 236,940, a 46% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,249 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 23 and State Senate District 19.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arizona 16th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/04016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.