Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
68.9%6,956 participants ÷ 10,097 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+17.0 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
-0.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
51.9%–58.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
50.0%
46.7%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
6,956
10,097 ± 729
68.9%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
4,878
10,454 ± 782
46.7%
Audited
E/A
6,354
9,983 ± 729
63.6%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
4,786
9,580 ± 599
50.0%
Audited
E/A
5,181
9,631 ± 648
53.8%
Audited
E/A
3,734
9,631
38.8%
Derived
—
5,147
9,981
51.6%
Derived
—
4,762
10,331 extrapolated
46.1%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Tucson Estates, AZ · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
56.1%
3,535 votes · D+13.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 55.5%
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
49.5%
1,847 votes · R+0.8
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 47.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
3,535votes
56.1% of the vote · D+13.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 3,485 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
2,737votes
43.6% of the vote · D+11.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 2,690 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+13.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+11.9 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +9.0 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+4.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+0.8 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +3.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Tucson Estates · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Pima County, Arizona, the county containing Tucson Estates — Tucson Estates’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Tucson Estates, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Tucson Estates sits outside Tucson's municipal boundary but falls within its metro orbit, a pattern common to Pima County's CDP belt where residents vote in county and federal races without city council representation.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 13.4 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 0.8 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 1.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.9 points.
A population of 12,136, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,582 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Corrales and Solvang.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Tucson Estates, Arizona voted Democratic by 11.9 points (D+11.9), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 6,284 votes cast, 3,485 went Democratic and 2,737 went Republican.
When did Tucson Estates, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson Estates, Arizona voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Tucson Estates, Arizona?
Tucson Estates, Arizona has a population of 12,136 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson Estates, Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson Estates, Arizona is $66,582 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson Estates, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Tucson Estates, Arizona from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 1 went Republican.
