akashic
1876–2024
State House District 16·Arizona

Arizona 16th State House District delivered R+12 in 2024 — close enough to flip again next time.

A fast-growing Phoenix-area district anchored by consistent Republican margins

1876 — 2024·38 elections
AZ
Latest
R+12
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
308,392
2024 ACS

Arizona 16th State House District, Arizona: Tossup district. In 2024, voted R+12%. Democratic peak: D+42 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+12MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
TossupAkashic typology
Population
308,3922024 5-year
Median household income
$79,6132024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
60.9%2024 5-year
Black
5.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
31.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+42 in 1932MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+21 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
3 counties · 1 D · 2 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−12.4%
60,58278,032140,469
R
−6.9%
59,26368,189129,812
R
−9.1%
39,73348,37294,699
R
−9.7%
35,99143,92081,581
R
−8.5%
36,23243,09180,266
R
−8.1%
26,98831,75759,175
D
+0.5%
20,10419,90441,817
D
+12.1%
19,36014,79037,867
D
+7.0%
16,31413,57039,213
R
−8.1%
14,32516,88731,594
R
−20.4%
11,60917,61529,493
R
−18.6%
8,63113,21624,700
R
−3.5%
9,83710,58621,208
R
−20.9%
6,71310,80619,577
R
−6.3%
6,2187,15614,938
D
+10.0%
8,4246,88815,327
R
−1.8%
6,2706,50412,792
R
−15.6%
4,0125,4989,522
R
−12.4%
3,6134,6358,248
D
+12.9%
2,9092,2305,245
D
+17.0%
2,3411,6574,013
D
+31.0%
3,0481,6024,668
D
+42.2%
2,5139923,606
D
+41.8%
2,2579113,221
R
−11.1%
1,0131,2662,283
R
−6.0%
6657681,724
R
−10.1%
7809551,734
D
+11.6%
7355761,376
O
+31.0%
21961510
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
13.6%
English
10.0%
Irish
9.2%
Italian
3.9%
American
3.7%
Polish
1.9%
French
1.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.0%
3.5%
75–84
3.6%
5.6%
65–74
6.4%
5.6%
55–64
5.9%
5.9%
45–54
5.4%
7.0%
35–44
6.0%
7.4%
25–34
6.1%
4.6%
18–24
4.0%
8.1%
5–17
7.9%
2.7%
<5
2.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$79,613
State House District 16 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 16$79,613
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.7%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.8%
Working age (18–64)11.0%
Seniors (65+)9.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
79.2%
speak English only
Spanish16.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.5%
Other Indo-European1.3%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.4%
Other Christian
12.6%
Non-Christian
1.5%
Baptist
1.5%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.4%
Methodist
1.3%
Mainline Protestant
1.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 59.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Arizona House District 16 has trended reliably Republican in recent cycles, posting a 9.4-point margin in 2024. Its suburban and exurban character reflects broader population growth reshaping the competitive edges of the Phoenix metro.

The district's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-two points in 1936; the Republican margin reached twenty-one points in 1972. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Its demographics — a population of 308,392, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $79,613 — situate the district close to national averages on several dimensions.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 16, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/04016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did State House District 16, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 16, Arizona voted Republican by 12.4 points (R+12), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 140,469 votes cast, 60,582 went Democratic and 78,032 went Republican.
What is State House District 16, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 16, Arizona as a "Tossup" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 10 times, Republican 18 times, and other 1 times.
When did State House District 16, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 16, Arizona voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in State House District 16, Arizona?
State House District 16, Arizona has a population of 308,392 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 16, Arizona?
Median household income in State House District 16, Arizona is $79,613 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of State House District 16, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 16, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 18 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.