Arizona 15th State House District, Arizona: Tossup district. In 2024, voted R+8%. Democratic peak: D+41 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- TossupAkashic typology
- Population
- 48,9582024 5-year
- Median household income
- $86,8592024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 30.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40 in 1972MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State House District 15, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 9,954 | 11,819 | 22,082 | ||
| R | 10,274 | 10,822 | 21,501 | ||
| R | 6,859 | 7,910 | 15,939 | ||
| R | 5,969 | 7,627 | 13,886 | ||
| R | 5,967 | 7,525 | 13,654 | ||
| R | 4,725 | 6,368 | 11,186 | ||
| R | 3,584 | 4,329 | 8,230 | ||
| D | 3,404 | 3,392 | 7,446 | ||
| R | 2,673 | 3,150 | 7,907 | ||
| R | 2,200 | 3,888 | 6,163 | ||
| R | 1,550 | 3,692 | 5,292 | ||
| R | 1,198 | 2,822 | 4,471 | ||
| R | 1,432 | 2,288 | 3,863 | ||
| R | 926 | 2,215 | 3,261 | ||
| R | 884 | 1,466 | 2,610 | ||
| R | 1,236 | 1,318 | 2,555 | ||
| R | 884 | 1,178 | 2,063 | ||
| R | 566 | 885 | 1,453 | ||
| R | 522 | 746 | 1,267 | ||
| D | 418 | 350 | 785 | ||
| D | 338 | 249 | 588 | ||
| D | 399 | 233 | 636 | ||
| D | 350 | 141 | 510 | ||
| D | 313 | 146 | 465 | ||
| R | 135 | 203 | 339 | ||
| R | 100 | 113 | 253 | ||
| R | 105 | 131 | 236 | ||
| D | 95 | 69 | 176 | ||
| D | 30 | 7 | 67 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.8%
English
9.8%
Irish
8.9%
Italian
4.2%
American
4.1%
Polish
2.1%
French
1.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$86,859
State House District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 15$86,859
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.2%
Working age (18–64)10.1%
Seniors (65+)10.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
76.0%
speak English only
Spanish18.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%
Other Indo-European2.0%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+55.6, this district stands among the most reliably conservative constituencies in Arizona, suggesting a rural or exurban electorate with little recent competitive pressure at the legislative level.
The district's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-one points in 1936; the Republican margin reached forty points in 1984. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.
Its demographics — a population of 48,958, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $86,859 — situate the district close to national averages on several dimensions.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 15, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/04015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State House District 15, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 15, Arizona voted Republican by 8.4 points (R+8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 22,082 votes cast, 9,954 went Democratic and 11,819 went Republican.
What is State House District 15, Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 15, Arizona as a "Tossup" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 21 times, and other 0 times.
When did State House District 15, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 15, Arizona voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in State House District 15, Arizona?
State House District 15, Arizona has a population of 48,958 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 15, Arizona?
Median household income in State House District 15, Arizona is $86,859 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of State House District 15, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 15, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Tossup" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.