AkashicMaine — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Hannah PingreeDNominee |
| Bobby CharlesRNominee |
| Rick BennettIndependent |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Janet Mills (D) is term-limited. Both primaries used ranked-choice voting (resolved by June 19); Pingree beat Nirav Shah, Charles beat Benjamin Midgley. Independent Rick Bennett (a longtime Republican who left the party) is a confirmed general-election candidate. The November general uses plurality, not RCV. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the ME state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Janet T MillsD | D+13 |
| 2018 | Janet T MillsD | D+8 |
| 2014 | Paul LePageR | R+5 |
| 2010 | Paul LePageR | R+2 |
| 2006 | John BaldacciD | D+8 |
| 2002 | John BaldacciD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →