AkashicMassachusetts — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Maura HealeyDIncumbentPresumptive |
| Michael MinogueR |
| Brian ShortsleeveR |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Maura Healey (D) is running for re-election and is effectively unopposed for the Democratic nomination (presumptive). Primary is September 1, 2026 (not yet held). On the GOP side, the April state convention endorsed Michael Minogue (~70%+) and qualified both Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve for the ballot while eliminating earlier frontrunner Mike Kennealy; Minogue is the frontrunner but the primary is still contested. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MA state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | HealeyD | D+29 |
| 2018 | Baker And PolitoR | R+18 |
| 2014 | Charlie BakerR | R+2 |
| 2010 | Deval PatrickD | D+6 |
| 2006 | Deval PatrickD | D+20 |
| 2002 | Mitt RomneyR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 597 LV | Healey 53·Kennealy 32 | D+21 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 599 LV | Healey 52·Minogue 32 | D+20 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 603 LV | Healey 51·Shortsleeve 29 | D+22 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →