AkashicRhode Island — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 96% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Dan McKeeDIncumbent |
| Helena FoulkesD |
| Ken BlockIndependent |
Declared candidates. Not an open seat: incumbent Gov. Dan McKee (D) is running for a second full term, but he faces a serious, genuinely contested Democratic primary against Helena Foulkes (former CVS executive, 2022 candidate), who leads in polling and won the state party endorsement over McKee. Both are 'candidate' (not presumptive). Ken Block is a notable independent. Primary moved from Sept 8 to Wednesday Sept 9 2026 due to the Labor Day setup crunch; not yet held. GOP field has no major candidate of note. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the RI state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Daniel J McKeeD | D+19 |
| 2018 | Gina M RaimondoD | D+16 |
| 2014 | Gina RaimondoD | D+4 |
| 2010 | Lincoln Chafee | — |
| 2006 | Donald CarcieriR | R+2 |
| 2002 | Donald CarcieriR | R+10 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →