AkashicNew Hampshire — Governor
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 78% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 20-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Kelly AyotteRIncumbentPresumptive |
| Cinde WarmingtonDPresumptive |
Declared candidates. Not an open seat: NH governors serve 2-year terms with no term limit; incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) filed for re-election June 2026 and faces only minor primary challengers (presumptive). Cinde Warmington (former Executive Councilor, 2024 runner-up) is the only serious Democrat who filed (presumptive). Sept 8 primary not yet held. Several independents (e.g., Jon Kiper) must still collect signatures by Aug 5 for the general ballot; omitted pending ballot access. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NH state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kelly AyotteR | R+9 |
| 2022 | Chris SununuR | R+16 |
| 2020 | Chris SununuR | R+32 |
| 2018 | Chris SununuR | R+7 |
| 2016 | Chris SununuR | R+2 |
| 2014 | Maggie HassanD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | Mar 16–18 | 1,491 RV | Ayotte 45·Kiper 31 | R+14 |
| Saint Anselm | Mar 16–18 | 1,491 RV | Ayotte 46·Warmington 39 | R+7 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →