AkashicMaryland — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 96% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Wes MooreDIncumbentNominee |
| Dan CoxRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Wes Moore (D) is running for a second term and won renomination with ~88%. Republican Dan Cox won the GOP primary (over Ed Hale and others), setting up a rematch of 2022. A Green Party candidate (Andy Ellis) has been reported for the general ballot but is in secondary reporting only, so excluded from the confirmed roster. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MD state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wes MooreD | D+32 |
| 2018 | Larry HoganR | R+12 |
| 2014 | Larry HoganR | R+4 |
| 2010 | Martin O'MalleyD | D+14 |
| 2006 | Martin O'MalleyD | D+7 |
| 2002 | Bob EhrlichR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →