AkashicColorado — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Michael BennetD |
| Phil WeiserD |
| Barbara KirkmeyerR |
| Scott BottomsR |
| Victor MarxR |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Jared Polis (D) is term-limited. Primary is June 30, 2026 (NOT yet held as of June 25). Democratic primary is CONTESTED: U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet (frontrunner) vs. state AG Phil Weiser. Republican primary is a three-way: state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (establishment-backed), state Rep. Scott Bottoms, and Victor Marx. Bennet is the heavy favorite given Colorado's Democratic lean. Nominees not yet decided. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jared PolisD | D+19 |
| 2018 | Jared Polis / Dianne PrimaveraD | D+11 |
| 2014 | John HickenlooperD | D+3 |
| 2010 | John HickenlooperD | D+15 |
| 2006 | Bill RitterD | D+17 |
| 2002 | Bill OwensR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →