AkashicOklahoma — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Cyndi MunsonDNominee |
| Gentner DrummondR |
| Mike MazzeiR |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is term-limited. The June 16 2026 primary was held but the GOP race is UNRESOLVED: no candidate cleared 50%, so AG Gentner Drummond (1st) and former state senator Mike Mazzei (2nd, Trump-endorsed) advance to an Aug 25 2026 runoff; the GOP nominee is not yet decided. Democrat Cyndi Munson won her primary outright (~75%) and is the Democratic nominee. (The primary date is June 16, not the June 30 anticipated in the brief.) The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OK state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kevin StittR | R+14 |
| 2018 | Kevin StittR | R+12 |
| 2014 | Mary FallinR | R+15 |
| 2010 | Mary FallinR | R+21 |
| 2006 | Brad HenryD | D+33 |
| 2002 | Brad HenryD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →