AkashicKansas — Governor
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 76% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 18-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Ethan CorsonD |
| Cindy HolscherD |
| Ty MastersonR |
| Vicki SchmidtR |
| Scott SchwabR |
| Charlotte O'HaraR |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited. Primary is August 4, 2026 (not yet held as of 2026-06-25), so no nominees; candidates listed are declared major-party contenders. Additional Democrat Curt Skoog and minor Republicans (Stacy Rogers, Philip Sarnecki) also filed. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KS state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Laura KellyD | D+2 |
| 2018 | Laura Kelly/Lynn RogersD | D+5 |
| 2014 | Sam BrownbackR | R+4 |
| 2010 | Sam BrownbackR | R+31 |
| 2006 | Kathleen SebeliusD | D+18 |
| 2002 | Kathleen SebeliusD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →