AkashicWyoming — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Megan DegenfelderRPresumptive |
| Kenneth CasnerDPresumptive |
| Eric BarlowR |
| Brent BienR |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is term-limited (Wyoming caps the governor at 8 years in any 16-year period; Gordon elected 2018 and 2022) and confirmed he will not run. Aug 18 2026 primary not yet held; candidate filing closed May 29 2026. The GOP primary is the de facto general election: Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder is the front-runner (Trump-endorsed), with state Sen. Eric Barlow and retired USMC colonel Brent Bien also running. Kenneth (Ken) Casner is the lone filed Democrat and thus the presumptive Democratic nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WY state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Mark GordonR | R+62 |
| 2018 | Mark GordonR | R+40 |
| 2014 | Matt MeadR | R+32 |
| 2010 | Matt MeadR | R+43 |
| 2006 | Dave FreudenthalD | D+40 |
| 2002 | Dave FreudenthalD | D+2 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →