AkashicMontana — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Kurt Alme (R) remains favored after Sen. Daines withdrew at the filing deadline, but only narrowly: independent Seth Bodnar — backed by former Sen. Jon Tester — is the true threat to win, not the Democratic line, which is non-viable. The live Alme-versus-Bodnar contest tightens the race from Lean R to Tilt R. Caucus modeled at 50% neither / 25% each party (a free-agent independent who could organize with whoever offers more).
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 1%; raw Republican YES price 80%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Seth BodnarIndependentNominee | for against | |
| Kurt AlmeRNominee | against | |
| Alani BankheadDNominee | — | |
| Kyle AustinLibertarianNominee |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart ResearchD | Aug 1–4 | — LV | Alme 45·Bodnar 30·Bankhead 15 | R+30 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–27 | — LV | Alme 49·Bodnar 25·Bankhead 24 | R+25 |
| GQRD | Jul 23–26 | — LV | Alme 41·Bodnar 27·Bankhead 22 | R+19 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →