HarrisDemocratic38.5%231,906TrumpRepublican58.4%352,079KennedyWe The People2.0%11,825
R+19.9- Lead
- 120,173
- Total
- 602,990
- vs nation
- R+18.5
- Turnout
- 70.3%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+19.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 1,116,8752024 5-year
- Population density
- 7.7 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 145,551 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $72,5092024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+60.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+29.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Wyoming, WY · twin score 75.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 70.3%612,423 participants ÷ 871,202 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.1%–59.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 516,901 | 789,499 | 65.5% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 508,652 | 804,263 | 63.2% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 612,141 | 823,797 | 74.3% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 468,326 | 849,900 | 55.1% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 612,423 | 871,202 | 70.3% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Montana · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
79.9%
42,469 votes · D+60.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 69.3%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
61.1%
109,430 votes · R+29.1
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 60.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
244,786votes
40.5% of the vote · R+16.4
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 232,159 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
352,079votes
58.4% of the vote · R+19.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 343,602 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+66.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+60.2 · U.S. R+6.1
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1900 · +26.0 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2000
+25.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+25.1 · U.S. D+0.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +22.3 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
U.S. Senateopen seat
Seth BodnarnomineeKurt AlmenomineeAlani BankheadnomineeKyle Austinnominee
Sen. Daines withdrew at the March 5 filing deadline; ex-US Attorney Kurt Alme won the June 2 GOP primary with 76.1%. Air Force Lt. Col. Alani Bankhead won the Dem primary but polls a marginal third (15-24%) and rebuffed party pressure to withdraw; independent Seth Bodnar — backed by Jon Tester and Marc Racicot — is the live challenger (Tavern head-to-head: Bodnar 50, Alme 50).
U.S. House elections · 35 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R 2 | 39.7% | 58.6% | 597,811 | |
| R 2 | 34.2% | 52.9% | 463,632 | |
| R 1 | 43.6% | 56.4% | 601,509 | |
| R 1 | 46.2% | 50.9% | 504,421 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 694,370 |
| 2018 | 706,173 |
| 2020 | 747,439 |
| 2022 | 757,914 |
| 2024 | 800,573 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+6,348 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +105,847 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +3,297 |
| 2012 | +3,019 |
| 2013 | +5,318 |
| 2014 | +4,629 |
| 2015 | +5,074 |
| 2016 | +6,996 |
| 2017 | +8,699 |
| 2018 | +5,996 |
| 2019 | +6,024 |
| 2021 | +20,693 |
| 2022 | +15,474 |
| 2023 | +9,017 |
| 2024 | +5,263 |
| 2025 | +6,348 |
Five of Montana’s fifty-six counties voted Democratic in 2024, and Jon Tester’s eighteen-year hold on a Senate seat ended the same night.
- Presidential margin, 2024
- R+19.9 — widest in five cycles, up from R+16.4 in 2020 · MIT Election Lab
- Where the blue is
- Just 5 of 56 counties went Democratic — Missoula D+21.4 (bluest), Butte’s Silver Bow D+7.0, Glacier D+19.6; Garfield is reddest at R+89.6 · MIT Election Lab
- The split ticket closed
- Sen. Jon Tester (D), elected 2006 and re-elected 2012 and 2018, lost his seat in 2024 · U.S. Senate records
- Reservation counties crossed
- Big Horn (Crow) D→R+1.7 and Blaine (Fort Belknap) D+3.8 (2020)→R+5.9, both Democratic through 2020 · MIT Election Lab / per-county returns
- Among the least churched
- 65.3% claim no religious affiliation — 4th of 50; 6th in Latter-day Saints · 2020 U.S. Religion Census
- Open Senate seat in 2026
- Daines (R) withdrew at filing and endorsed Kurt Alme, who won the June 2 GOP primary; independent Seth Bodnar runs with Tester’s support · Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Wyoming
Wyoming
75.1twin score
2000 margin% White% Black≠ elasticity
Idaho
Idaho
67.8twin score
2000–2016 trajectory% Black% White≠ 2008 margin
South Dakota
South Dakota
67.6twin score
2000–2012 trajectorypopulation scale≠ % unaffiliated
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/MT/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Montana
Frequently asked questions
How did Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Montana voted Republican by 19.9 points (R+19.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 602,990 votes cast, 231,906 went Democratic and 352,079 went Republican.
When did Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Montana voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Montana?
Montana has a population of 1,116,875 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Montana?
Median household income in Montana is $72,509 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Montana?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Montana from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 23 went Republican.