HarrisDemocratic59.0%42,903TrumpRepublican37.5%27,306KennedyIndependent1.8%1,329
D+21.4- Lead
- 15,597
- Total
- 72,773
- vs nation
- D+22.9
- Turnout
- 76.1%
Akashiccounty
Missoula County, MT
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 76.1% of 97,175 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic60.6%43,357TrumpRepublican36.9%26,347JorgensenLibertarian2.5%1,791
D+23.8- Lead
- 17,010
- Total
- 71,495
- vs nation
- D+19.3
- Turnout
- 76.3%
ClintonDemocratic51.9%31,543TrumpRepublican36.6%22,250JohnsonLibertarian5.5%3,357
D+15.3- Lead
- 9,293
- Total
- 60,722
- vs nation
- D+13.2
- Turnout
- 68.8%
ObamaDemocratic57.4%32,824RomneyRepublican39.6%22,652GRAYLibertarian3.0%1,716
D+17.8- Lead
- 10,172
- Total
- 57,232
- vs nation
- D+13.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic61.8%36,531McCainRepublican35.1%20,743OtherAll other candidates3.0%1,801
D+26.7- Lead
- 15,788
- Total
- 59,075
- vs nation
- D+19.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic51.4%26,983BushRepublican45.7%23,989OtherAll other candidates2.8%1,482
D+5.7- Lead
- 2,994
- Total
- 52,454
- vs nation
- D+8.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic37.0%17,241BushRepublican46.1%21,474NaderGreen15.0%6,999
R+9.1- Lead
- 4,233
- Total
- 46,576
- vs nation
- R+9.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic49.3%21,874DoleRepublican36.1%16,034PerotReform12.6%5,586
D+13.2- Lead
- 5,840
- Total
- 44,382
- vs nation
- D+4.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+21.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 120,6722024 5-year
- Median household income
- $75,5982024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+72.0 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+33.3 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Douglas County, KS · twin score 93.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 76.1%73,907 participants ÷ 97,175 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 59.8%–67.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 61,761 | 89,738 | 68.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 62,060 | 92,090 | 67.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 72,634 | 95,248 | 76.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 57,041 | 95,063 | 60.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 73,907 | 97,175 | 76.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
65 precincts · 72,773 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -SPRING MEADOWS 99 ASPRING MEADOWS 99 A | 594 | 1,287 | 57 | 1,938 | 30.7% | 66.4% | R+35.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -EAST MISSOULA 92EAST MISSOULA 92 | 1,095 | 732 | 64 | 1,891 | 57.9% | 38.7% | D+19.2 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 98 DHELLGATE 98 D | 973 | 847 | 70 | 1,890 | 51.5% | 44.8% | D+6.7 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 98 BHELLGATE 98 B | 930 | 897 | 46 | 1,873 | 49.7% | 47.9% | D+1.8 |
| Precinct -CS PORTER 97 BCS PORTER 97 B | 917 | 699 | 72 | 1,688 | 54.3% | 41.4% | D+12.9 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGS 89 ACOLD SPRINGS 89 A | 986 | 645 | 56 | 1,687 | 58.4% | 38.2% | D+20.2 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGS 94 ACOLD SPRINGS 94 A | 999 | 591 | 76 | 1,666 | 60.0% | 35.5% | D+24.5 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGS 94 BCOLD SPRINGS 94 B | 879 | 704 | 61 | 1,644 | 53.5% | 42.8% | D+10.6 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGS 94 CCOLD SPRINGS 94 C | 780 | 778 | 45 | 1,603 | 48.7% | 48.5% | D+0.1 |
| Precinct -CS PORTER 97 ACS PORTER 97 A | 1,014 | 472 | 72 | 1,558 | 65.1% | 30.3% | D+34.8 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 97HELLGATE 97 | 748 | 771 | 39 | 1,558 | 48.0% | 49.5% | R+1.5 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGS 89 BCOLD SPRINGS 89 B | 982 | 501 | 66 | 1,549 | 63.4% | 32.3% | D+31.1 |
| Precinct -TARGET RANGE 96 BTARGET RANGE 96 B | 767 | 705 | 58 | 1,530 | 50.1% | 46.1% | D+4.1 |
| Precinct -FRENCHTOWN 90 BFRENCHTOWN 90 B | 461 | 1,017 | 36 | 1,514 | 30.4% | 67.2% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -LIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 95LIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 95 | 1,110 | 301 | 64 | 1,475 | 75.3% | 20.4% | D+54.8 |
| Precinct -LIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 97LIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 97 | 978 | 431 | 60 | 1,469 | 66.6% | 29.3% | D+37.2 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 98 AHELLGATE 98 A | 878 | 526 | 49 | 1,453 | 60.4% | 36.2% | D+24.2 |
| Precinct -LIBRARY 91LIBRARY 91 | 1,125 | 283 | 32 | 1,440 | 78.1% | 19.7% | D+58.5 |
| Precinct -LOWELL 98LOWELL 98 | 892 | 457 | 74 | 1,423 | 62.7% | 32.1% | D+30.6 |
| Precinct -UC 95 BUC 95 B | 1,080 | 254 | 63 | 1,397 | 77.3% | 18.2% | D+59.1 |
| Precinct -LIBRARY 92 ALIBRARY 92 A | 1,063 | 218 | 41 | 1,322 | 80.4% | 16.5% | D+63.9 |
| Precinct -LOLO 89 ALOLO 89 A | 555 | 734 | 31 | 1,320 | 42.0% | 55.6% | R+13.6 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 99 AHELLGATE 99 A | 806 | 467 | 33 | 1,306 | 61.7% | 35.8% | D+26.0 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 94 BMCPS ADMIN 94 B | 844 | 386 | 50 | 1,280 | 65.9% | 30.2% | D+35.8 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 96 BMCPS ADMIN 96 B | 806 | 379 | 45 | 1,230 | 65.5% | 30.8% | D+34.7 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 96 AMCPS ADMIN 96 A | 831 | 335 | 44 | 1,210 | 68.7% | 27.7% | D+41.0 |
| Precinct -UC 95 CUC 95 C | 995 | 161 | 34 | 1,190 | 83.6% | 13.5% | D+70.1 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 93 BMCPS ADMIN 93 B | 920 | 226 | 38 | 1,184 | 77.7% | 19.1% | D+58.6 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 99 BHELLGATE 99 B | 628 | 471 | 41 | 1,140 | 55.1% | 41.3% | D+13.8 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 93 AMCPS ADMIN 93 A | 910 | 163 | 39 | 1,112 | 81.8% | 14.7% | D+67.2 |
| Precinct -SEELEY LAKE 76SEELEY LAKE 76 | 345 | 722 | 32 | 1,099 | 31.4% | 65.7% | R+34.3 |
| Precinct -UC 95 AUC 95 A | 903 | 143 | 44 | 1,090 | 82.8% | 13.1% | D+69.7 |
| Precinct -LIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 100 ALIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 100 A | 675 | 343 | 52 | 1,070 | 63.1% | 32.1% | D+31.0 |
| Precinct -LOLO 89 BLOLO 89 B | 479 | 517 | 48 | 1,044 | 45.9% | 49.5% | R+3.6 |
| Precinct -LIBRARY 100 BLIBRARY 100 B | 784 | 200 | 45 | 1,029 | 76.2% | 19.4% | D+56.8 |
| Precinct -PETTY 90PETTY 90 | 331 | 673 | 21 | 1,025 | 32.3% | 65.7% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -LOLO 89 CLOLO 89 C | 360 | 606 | 36 | 1,002 | 35.9% | 60.5% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -UC 95 DUC 95 D | 833 | 140 | 29 | 1,002 | 83.1% | 14.0% | D+69.2 |
| Precinct -LIBRARY 92 BLIBRARY 92 B | 786 | 163 | 49 | 998 | 78.8% | 16.3% | D+62.4 |
| Precinct -UC 93UC 93 | 807 | 148 | 42 | 997 | 80.9% | 14.8% | D+66.1 |
| Precinct -LOWELL 100 BLOWELL 100 B | 780 | 169 | 42 | 991 | 78.7% | 17.1% | D+61.7 |
| Precinct -LIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 100 BLIFELONG LEARNING CENTER 100 B | 681 | 271 | 37 | 989 | 68.9% | 27.4% | D+41.5 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 94 AMCPS ADMIN 94 A | 670 | 287 | 30 | 987 | 67.9% | 29.1% | D+38.8 |
| Precinct -POTOMAC 92POTOMAC 92 | 346 | 592 | 27 | 965 | 35.9% | 61.3% | R+25.5 |
| Precinct -LIBRARY 100 ALIBRARY 100 A | 770 | 143 | 38 | 951 | 81.0% | 15.0% | D+65.9 |
| Precinct -LOWELL 100 ALOWELL 100 A | 780 | 125 | 37 | 942 | 82.8% | 13.3% | D+69.5 |
| Precinct -LIBRARY 99LIBRARY 99 | 734 | 151 | 16 | 901 | 81.5% | 16.8% | D+64.7 |
| Precinct -CLINTON 93CLINTON 93 | 304 | 547 | 44 | 895 | 34.0% | 61.1% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -BONNER 92BONNER 92 | 461 | 408 | 23 | 892 | 51.7% | 45.7% | D+5.9 |
| Precinct -BONNER 93BONNER 93 | 372 | 459 | 34 | 865 | 43.0% | 53.1% | R+10.1 |
| Precinct -LOWELL 99LOWELL 99 | 564 | 256 | 39 | 859 | 65.7% | 29.8% | D+35.9 |
| Precinct -TARGET RANGE 96 ATARGET RANGE 96 A | 459 | 350 | 37 | 846 | 54.3% | 41.4% | D+12.9 |
| Precinct -LOLO 93LOLO 93 | 276 | 491 | 17 | 784 | 35.2% | 62.6% | R+27.4 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 96HELLGATE 96 | 286 | 463 | 18 | 767 | 37.3% | 60.4% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct -SPRING MEADOWS 99 BSPRING MEADOWS 99 B | 406 | 322 | 30 | 758 | 53.6% | 42.5% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct -CS PORTER 96CS PORTER 96 | 424 | 258 | 27 | 709 | 59.8% | 36.4% | D+23.4 |
| Precinct -FRENCHTOWN 90 AFRENCHTOWN 90 A | 217 | 389 | 17 | 623 | 34.8% | 62.4% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -UC 95 EUC 95 E | 443 | 153 | 24 | 620 | 71.5% | 24.7% | D+46.8 |
| Precinct -COLD SPRINGS 93COLD SPRINGS 93 | 250 | 292 | 21 | 563 | 44.4% | 51.9% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -GRAY WOLF 91GRAY WOLF 91 | 271 | 258 | 28 | 557 | 48.7% | 46.3% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -SWAN 92SWAN 92 | 116 | 311 | 9 | 436 | 26.6% | 71.3% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct -SEELEY LAKE 92SEELEY LAKE 92 | 118 | 210 | 3 | 331 | 35.6% | 63.4% | R+27.8 |
| Precinct -MCPS ADMIN 93 CMCPS ADMIN 93 C | 215 | 93 | 6 | 314 | 68.5% | 29.6% | D+38.9 |
| Precinct -LOLO 90LOLO 90 | 77 | 173 | 3 | 253 | 30.4% | 68.4% | R+37.9 |
| Precinct -HELLGATE 98 CHELLGATE 98 C | 34 | 42 | 3 | 79 | 43.0% | 53.2% | R+10.1 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +5.7% |
| 1896 | +72.0% |
| 1900 | +15.1% |
| 1904 | −33.3% |
| 1908 | −1.9% |
| 1912 | +20.1% |
| 1916 | +15.1% |
| 1920 | −13.0% |
| 1924 | −17.0% |
| 1928 | −20.8% |
| 1932 | +14.8% |
| 1936 | +46.2% |
| 1940 | +15.6% |
| 1944 | +1.7% |
| 1948 | +4.2% |
| 1952 | −18.5% |
| 1956 | −22.2% |
| 1960 | −7.9% |
| 1964 | +23.0% |
| 1968 | −6.6% |
| 1972 | −5.9% |
| 1976 | −3.9% |
| 1980 | −8.8% |
| 1984 | −8.8% |
| 1988 | +9.0% |
| 1992 | +17.2% |
| 1996 | +13.2% |
| 2000 | −9.1% |
| 2004 | +5.7% |
| 2008 | +26.7% |
| 2012 | +17.8% |
| 2016 | +15.3% |
| 2020 | +23.8% |
| 2024 | +21.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1934Special · Class II | D | 62.7%James E. Murray5,401 | 36.2%Scott Leavitt3,116 | 8,608 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 83,745 |
| 2018 | 85,786 |
| 2020 | 90,511 |
| 2022 | 90,261 |
| 2024 | 95,347 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+765 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +9,951 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,072 in average income, against $94,230 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+9.3 on average — 31 points more Republican-leaning than Missoula County, MT itself (D+21.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Ravalli County, MT322R+40.6
- Gallatin County, MT167D+3.2
- Flathead County, MT166R+33.8
- Lewis and Clark County, MT142R+5.7
- Lake County, MT125R+19.9
- Yellowstone County, MT113R+27.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Ravalli County, MT326
- Flathead County, MT164
- Lake County, MT152
- Gallatin County, MT139
- Lewis and Clark County, MT133
- Cascade County, MT109
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +292 |
| 2012 | +330 |
| 2013 | +123 |
| 2014 | +407 |
| 2015 | +850 |
| 2016 | +1,648 |
| 2017 | +1,084 |
| 2018 | +477 |
| 2019 | +603 |
| 2021 | +1,360 |
| 2022 | +873 |
| 2023 | +541 |
| 2024 | +598 |
| 2025 | +765 |
Home to the University of Montana, Missoula County posts the state's largest Democratic presidential margins — running more than 20 points left of center in a state that otherwise tilts sharply Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 72.0 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 33.3 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.4 points.
A population of 120,672, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,598 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Douglas County and Benton County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Douglas County
Kansas
93.7twin score
2008–2024 trajectory≠ median age
Benton County
Oregon
93.4twin score
2008–2024 trajectory≠ % Asian
Monroe County
Indiana
93.1twin score
2008–2024 trajectory≠ % Asian
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missoula County, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/30063/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Missoula County
Montana at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Missoula County, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missoula County, Montana voted Democratic by 21.4 points (D+21.4), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 72,773 votes cast, 42,903 went Democratic and 27,306 went Republican.
When did Missoula County, Montana last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Missoula County, Montana voted Republican was 2000.
How many people live in Missoula County, Montana?
Missoula County, Montana has a population of 120,672 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missoula County, Montana?
Median household income in Missoula County, Montana is $75,598 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Missoula County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Missoula County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.