- Lead
- 2,515
- Total
- 5,794
- vs nation
- R+41.9
- Turnout
- 74.9%
Beaverhead County, MT
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 74.9% of 7,867 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,315
- Total
- 5,661
- vs nation
- R+45.3
- Turnout
- 73.7%
- Lead
- 2,210
- Total
- 4,849
- vs nation
- R+47.7
- Turnout
- 68.7%
- Lead
- 1,918
- Total
- 4,812
- vs nation
- R+43.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,391
- Total
- 4,763
- vs nation
- R+36.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,964
- Total
- 4,242
- vs nation
- R+43.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,314
- Total
- 4,196
- vs nation
- R+55.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,250
- Total
- 4,019
- vs nation
- R+39.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 9,7132024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,2682024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+77.6 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.1 in 2000MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Johnson County, WY · twin score 82.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 74.9%5,893 participants ÷ 7,867 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 60.6%–66.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,088 | 7,411 | 68.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,942 | 7,519 | 65.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,740 | 7,784 | 73.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,609 | 7,761 | 59.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,893 | 7,867 | 74.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
16 precincts · 5,794 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -PRECINCT 03PRECINCT 03 | 200 | 698 | 23 | 921 | 21.7% | 75.8% | R+54.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -PRECINCT 02PRECINCT 02 | 180 | 652 | 24 | 856 | 21.0% | 76.2% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 12PRECINCT 12 | 219 | 364 | 22 | 605 | 36.2% | 60.2% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 14PRECINCT 14 | 171 | 326 | 29 | 526 | 32.5% | 62.0% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 09PRECINCT 09 | 134 | 342 | 22 | 498 | 26.9% | 68.7% | R+41.8 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 06PRECINCT 06 | 161 | 319 | 16 | 496 | 32.5% | 64.3% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 01PRECINCT 01 | 170 | 230 | 20 | 420 | 40.5% | 54.8% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 07PRECINCT 07 | 78 | 241 | 8 | 327 | 23.9% | 73.7% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 04PRECINCT 04 | 37 | 174 | 4 | 215 | 17.2% | 80.9% | R+63.7 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 21PRECINCT 21 | 39 | 116 | 5 | 160 | 24.4% | 72.5% | R+48.1 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 17PRECINCT 17 | 30 | 119 | 8 | 157 | 19.1% | 75.8% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 19PRECINCT 19 | 38 | 111 | 1 | 150 | 25.3% | 74.0% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 23PRECINCT 23 | 41 | 105 | 4 | 150 | 27.3% | 70.0% | R+42.7 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 05PRECINCT 05 | 19 | 125 | 4 | 148 | 12.8% | 84.5% | R+71.6 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 20PRECINCT 20 | 12 | 75 | 1 | 88 | 13.6% | 85.2% | R+71.6 |
| Precinct -PRECINCT 08PRECINCT 08 | 14 | 61 | 2 | 77 | 18.2% | 79.2% | R+61.0 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −19.5% |
| 1896 | +77.6% |
| 1900 | +9.9% |
| 1904 | −21.7% |
| 1908 | −8.2% |
| 1912 | +0.3% |
| 1916 | +0.3% |
| 1920 | −40.8% |
| 1924 | −22.6% |
| 1928 | −24.9% |
| 1932 | +12.6% |
| 1936 | +24.0% |
| 1940 | −2.8% |
| 1944 | −10.3% |
| 1948 | −7.6% |
| 1952 | −40.8% |
| 1956 | −31.0% |
| 1960 | −13.9% |
| 1964 | −8.8% |
| 1968 | −33.6% |
| 1972 | −49.3% |
| 1976 | −40.9% |
| 1980 | −51.5% |
| 1984 | −52.1% |
| 1988 | −34.9% |
| 1992 | −15.6% |
| 1996 | −31.1% |
| 2000 | −55.1% |
| 2004 | −46.3% |
| 2008 | −29.2% |
| 2012 | −39.9% |
| 2016 | −45.6% |
| 2020 | −40.9% |
| 2024 | −43.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1934Special · Class II | D | 56.1%James E. Murray1,749 | 43.6%Scott Leavitt1,359 | 3,115 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 6,733 |
| 2018 | 6,779 |
| 2020 | 7,061 |
| 2022 | 7,122 |
| 2024 | 7,505 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+81 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +892 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,022 in average income, against $72,795 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+4.9 on average — 48 points more Democratic-leaning than Beaverhead County, MT itself (R+43.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Gallatin County, MT30D+3.2
- Silver Bow County, MT25D+7.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Gallatin County, MT26
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −70 |
| 2012 | +121 |
| 2013 | −69 |
| 2014 | +21 |
| 2015 | −40 |
| 2016 | +142 |
| 2017 | −21 |
| 2018 | −51 |
| 2019 | +49 |
| 2021 | +210 |
| 2022 | +229 |
| 2023 | +160 |
| 2024 | +130 |
| 2025 | +81 |
Beaverhead spans more than 5,500 square miles of ranching and mining country in southwestern Montana, producing presidential margins that have exceeded 40 points Republican in recent cycles. Its sparse, rural population punches above its weight in shaping statewide totals.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 77.6 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 55.1 points in 2000. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.4 points.
A population of 9,713, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,268 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Johnson County and Park County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Beaverhead County, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/30001/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.