| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 415 | 1,571 | 2,046 | |
| 2020 | R | 467 | 1,596 | 2,119 | |
| 2016 | R | 402 | 1,497 | 2,037 | |
| 2012 | R | 582 | 1,440 | 2,102 | |
| 2008 | R | 737 | 1,317 | 2,121 | |
| 2004 | R | 690 | 1,583 | 2,311 | |
| 2000 | R | 630 | 1,639 | 2,378 | |
| 1996 | R | 874 | 1,203 | 2,482 | |
| 1992 | R | 854 | 943 | 2,717 | |
| 1988 | R | 1,070 | 1,505 | 2,634 | |
| 1984 | R | 789 | 1,949 | 2,768 | |
| 1980 | R | 634 | 2,000 | 2,850 | |
| 1976 | R | 1,080 | 1,469 | 2,603 | |
| 1972 | R | 897 | 1,679 | 2,815 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,048 | 1,407 | 2,708 | |
| 1964 | D | 1,649 | 1,223 | 2,874 | |
| 1960 | D | 1,767 | 1,577 | 3,348 | |
| 1956 | R | 1,460 | 1,927 | 3,387 | |
| 1952 | R | 1,426 | 1,853 | 3,294 | |
| 1948 | D | 1,756 | 1,092 | 2,888 | |
| 1944 | D | 1,545 | 1,113 | 2,668 | |
| 1940 | D | 1,954 | 1,218 | 3,182 | |
| 1936 | D | 2,120 | 654 | 2,884 | |
| 1932 | D | 1,917 | 862 | 2,874 | |
| 1928 | R | 1,076 | 1,325 | 2,422 | |
| 1924 | R | 439 | 697 | 1,859 | |
| 1920 | R | 405 | 861 | 1,405 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,075 | 698 | 1,972 | |
| 1912 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1908 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Toole County hugs the Canadian border along Montana's Hi-Line, where a sparse, agriculture-and-energy economy has produced some of the state's most lopsided presidential results for decades running.
The Democratic margin in Toole County peaked at fifty-one points in 1936. By 1968 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was fifty-seven points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Toole County's median household income of $57,731 sits well below state and national norms, and 13% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Washington County and Bowman County.
