Rosebud County, Montana: Bellwether county. In 2024, voted R+37%. Republican peak: R+54 in 1904.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+37MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 8,1652024 5-year
- Median household income
- $49,9142024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 53.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Sullivan County, IN · similarity 0.99
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Rosebud CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Rosebud County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
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Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 1,095 | 2,466 | 3,693 | ||
| R | 1,199 | 2,486 | 3,773 | ||
| R | 987 | 2,253 | 3,453 | ||
| R | 1,422 | 2,004 | 3,523 | ||
| D | 1,919 | 1,768 | 3,810 | ||
| R | 1,520 | 1,982 | 3,585 | ||
| R | 1,394 | 1,826 | 3,423 | ||
| D | 1,681 | 1,413 | 3,683 | ||
| D | 1,669 | 1,130 | 3,918 | ||
| D | 1,869 | 1,822 | 3,792 | ||
| R | 1,920 | 2,413 | 4,402 | ||
| R | 1,167 | 1,875 | 3,443 | ||
| R | 1,413 | 1,538 | 3,006 | ||
| R | 777 | 1,486 | 2,350 | ||
| R | 711 | 1,190 | 2,109 | ||
| D | 1,212 | 1,105 | 2,321 | ||
| R | 1,002 | 1,386 | 2,399 | ||
| R | 890 | 1,516 | 2,406 | ||
| R | 805 | 1,734 | 2,553 | ||
| R | 1,031 | 1,106 | 2,181 | ||
| R | 1,114 | 1,154 | 2,301 | ||
| D | 1,399 | 1,252 | 2,677 | ||
| D | 1,624 | 866 | 2,670 | ||
| D | 1,646 | 1,027 | 2,804 | ||
| R | 1,025 | 1,519 | 2,558 | ||
| R | 259 | 1,115 | 2,270 | ||
| R | 873 | 2,239 | 3,282 | ||
| D | 1,608 | 1,337 | 3,042 | ||
| O | 313 | 392 | 1,156 | ||
| R | 235 | 515 | 780 | ||
| R | 134 | 460 | 608 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
16.9%
English
9.8%
Irish
8.6%
American
6.8%
Scottish
2.1%
French
1.2%
Italian
1.0%
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$49,914
Rosebud County ranks in the bottom 25% of US counties.
Rosebud County$49,914
Montana$72,509
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
24.5%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1837.8%
Working age (18–64)18.7%
Seniors (65+)24.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
89.4%
speak English only
Other languages5.1%
Other Indo-European2.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.7%
Spanish1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 32.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Rosebud County stretches across southeastern Montana's arid grasslands, blending ranching communities with a substantial Native American population — a demographic split that has historically produced varied turnout patterns even as countywide margins run heavily Republican.
The Democratic margin in Rosebud County has rarely exceeded twenty-eight points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-four points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by thirty-seven points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 54% non-Hispanic-white share, a 25% poverty rate, and a median household income of $49,914 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Sullivan County and Bond County.
Most similar counties
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Rosebud County, Montana — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://akashic.app/county/30087/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More in Montana
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Frequently asked questions
How did Rosebud County, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Rosebud County, Montana voted Republican by 37.1 points (R+37), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,693 votes cast, 1,095 went Democratic and 2,466 went Republican.
What is Rosebud County, Montana's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Rosebud County, Montana as a "Bellwether" county based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 9 times, Republican 21 times, and other 1 times.
When did Rosebud County, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Rosebud County, Montana voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Rosebud County, Montana?
Rosebud County, Montana has a population of 8,165 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Rosebud County, Montana?
Median household income in Rosebud County, Montana is $49,914 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Rosebud County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Rosebud County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The county's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.