HarrisDemocratic51.5%9,386TrumpRepublican44.5%8,110KennedyIndependent2.8%513
D+7.0- Lead
- 1,276
- Total
- 18,226
- vs nation
- D+8.5
- Turnout
- 65.5%
Akashiccounty
Silver Bow County, MT
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.5% of 28,360 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic55.7%10,392TrumpRepublican41.5%7,745JorgensenLibertarian2.8%521
D+14.2- Lead
- 2,647
- Total
- 18,658
- vs nation
- D+9.7
- Turnout
- 69.3%
ClintonDemocratic52.4%8,619TrumpRepublican38.8%6,376JohnsonLibertarian6.4%1,057
D+13.6- Lead
- 2,243
- Total
- 16,452
- vs nation
- D+11.5
- Turnout
- 63.4%
ObamaDemocratic64.8%10,857RomneyRepublican32.4%5,430GRAYLibertarian2.8%469
D+32.4- Lead
- 5,427
- Total
- 16,756
- vs nation
- D+28.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic68.8%11,676McCainRepublican28.4%4,818OtherAll other candidates2.8%471
D+40.4- Lead
- 6,858
- Total
- 16,965
- vs nation
- D+33.2
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic57.9%9,307BushRepublican39.7%6,381OtherAll other candidates2.5%396
D+18.2- Lead
- 2,926
- Total
- 16,084
- vs nation
- D+20.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic53.7%8,967BushRepublican37.7%6,299NaderGreen5.2%876
D+16.0- Lead
- 2,668
- Total
- 16,703
- vs nation
- D+15.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic63.4%11,199DoleRepublican22.1%3,909PerotReform13.8%2,447
D+41.2- Lead
- 7,290
- Total
- 17,677
- vs nation
- D+32.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+7.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 35,7852024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,7542024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+77.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+20.2 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Deer Lodge County, MT · twin score 90.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.5%18,569 participants ÷ 28,360 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 47.5%–55.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 17,251 | 27,197 | 63.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 16,485 | 27,296 | 60.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 19,026 | 27,469 | 69.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 14,306 | 27,915 | 51.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 18,569 | 28,360 | 65.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
31 precincts · 18,226 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -PREC_1.1PREC_1.1 | 1,062 | 739 | 63 | 1,864 | 57.0% | 39.6% | D+17.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -PREC_2.1PREC_2.1 | 844 | 633 | 71 | 1,548 | 54.5% | 40.9% | D+13.6 |
| Precinct -PREC_5.4PREC_5.4 | 697 | 772 | 45 | 1,514 | 46.0% | 51.0% | R+5.0 |
| Precinct -PREC_7.1PREC_7.1 | 623 | 656 | 59 | 1,338 | 46.6% | 49.0% | R+2.5 |
| Precinct -PREC_9.1PREC_9.1 | 844 | 448 | 40 | 1,332 | 63.4% | 33.6% | D+29.7 |
| Precinct -PREC_6.1PREC_6.1 | 589 | 648 | 73 | 1,310 | 45.0% | 49.5% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct -PREC_11.2PREC_11.2 | 678 | 443 | 50 | 1,171 | 57.9% | 37.8% | D+20.1 |
| Precinct -PREC_8.1PREC_8.1 | 639 | 466 | 45 | 1,150 | 55.6% | 40.5% | D+15.0 |
| Precinct -PREC_3.2PREC_3.2 | 491 | 402 | 35 | 928 | 52.9% | 43.3% | D+9.6 |
| Precinct -PREC_4.1PREC_4.1 | 459 | 398 | 47 | 904 | 50.8% | 44.0% | D+6.7 |
| Precinct -PREC_10.1PREC_10.1 | 387 | 267 | 34 | 688 | 56.3% | 38.8% | D+17.4 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.3PREC_12.3 | 236 | 413 | 24 | 673 | 35.1% | 61.4% | R+26.3 |
| Precinct -PREC_3.1PREC_3.1 | 334 | 300 | 25 | 659 | 50.7% | 45.5% | D+5.2 |
| Precinct -PREC_4.2PREC_4.2 | 231 | 194 | 21 | 446 | 51.8% | 43.5% | D+8.3 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.5PREC_12.5 | 202 | 190 | 17 | 409 | 49.4% | 46.5% | D+2.9 |
| Precinct -PREC_5.3PREC_5.3 | 161 | 136 | 17 | 314 | 51.3% | 43.3% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -PREC_5.2PREC_5.2 | 108 | 176 | 7 | 291 | 37.1% | 60.5% | R+23.4 |
| Precinct -PREC_10.2PREC_10.2 | 118 | 95 | 12 | 225 | 52.4% | 42.2% | D+10.2 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.4PREC_12.4 | 45 | 134 | 5 | 184 | 24.5% | 72.8% | R+48.4 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.10SPREC_12.10S | 103 | 69 | 6 | 178 | 57.9% | 38.8% | D+19.1 |
| Precinct -PREC_2.2PREC_2.2 | 93 | 66 | 3 | 162 | 57.4% | 40.7% | D+16.7 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.10NPREC_12.10N | 76 | 75 | 7 | 158 | 48.1% | 47.5% | D+0.6 |
| Precinct -PREC_9.2PREC_9.2 | 67 | 67 | 4 | 138 | 48.6% | 48.6% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -PREC_12.2PREC_12.2 | 41 | 89 | 4 | 134 | 30.6% | 66.4% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct -PREC_6.2PREC_6.2 | 49 | 31 | 4 | 84 | 58.3% | 36.9% | D+21.4 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.6PREC_12.6 | 48 | 34 | 1 | 83 | 57.8% | 41.0% | D+16.9 |
| Precinct -PREC_9.3PREC_9.3 | 47 | 34 | 2 | 83 | 56.6% | 41.0% | D+15.7 |
| Precinct -PREC_11.4PREC_11.4 | 54 | 23 | 4 | 81 | 66.7% | 28.4% | D+38.3 |
| Precinct -PREC_12.1PREC_12.1 | 30 | 51 | 0 | 81 | 37.0% | 63.0% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct -PREC_5.1PREC_5.1 | 17 | 47 | 4 | 68 | 25.0% | 69.1% | R+44.1 |
| Precinct -PREC_8.2PREC_8.2 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 28 | 46.4% | 50.0% | R+3.6 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −7.2% |
| 1896 | +77.2% |
| 1900 | +50.4% |
| 1904 | +3.8% |
| 1908 | +12.0% |
| 1912 | +19.4% |
| 1916 | +29.4% |
| 1920 | −20.2% |
| 1924 | −6.0% |
| 1928 | +8.4% |
| 1932 | +31.3% |
| 1936 | +58.2% |
| 1940 | +37.1% |
| 1944 | +26.7% |
| 1948 | +25.4% |
| 1952 | +12.4% |
| 1956 | −0.6% |
| 1960 | +30.5% |
| 1964 | +51.2% |
| 1968 | +36.4% |
| 1972 | +18.3% |
| 1976 | +20.3% |
| 1980 | +12.5% |
| 1984 | +24.8% |
| 1988 | +38.2% |
| 1992 | +35.6% |
| 1996 | +41.2% |
| 2000 | +16.0% |
| 2004 | +18.2% |
| 2008 | +40.4% |
| 2012 | +32.4% |
| 2016 | +13.6% |
| 2020 | +14.2% |
| 2024 | +7.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 13 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1934Special · Class II | D | 75.2%James E. Murray13,976 | 23.6%Scott Leavitt4,391 | 18,591 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 21,950 |
| 2018 | 22,764 |
| 2020 | 23,251 |
| 2022 | 23,280 |
| 2024 | 23,375 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+159 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +1,865 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $55,019 in average income, against $74,110 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+6.3 on average — 13 points more Republican-leaning than Silver Bow County, MT itself (D+7.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Gallatin County, MT70D+3.2
- Deer Lodge County, MT67D+1.0
- Missoula County, MT54D+21.4
- Lewis and Clark County, MT51R+5.7
- Yellowstone County, MT37R+27.1
- Jefferson County, MT29R+36.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Missoula County, MT76
- Deer Lodge County, MT60
- Lewis and Clark County, MT53
- Gallatin County, MT52
- Yellowstone County, MT46
- Beaverhead County, MT25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +140 |
| 2012 | +37 |
| 2013 | −41 |
| 2014 | +121 |
| 2015 | −160 |
| 2016 | −56 |
| 2017 | +87 |
| 2018 | −47 |
| 2019 | +181 |
| 2021 | +433 |
| 2022 | +448 |
| 2023 | +470 |
| 2024 | +93 |
| 2025 | +159 |
One of Montana's few reliably Democratic counties, Silver Bow anchors its leftward lean in Butte's century-old labor movement and a working-class Irish Catholic demographic identity that has proven durable even as rural Montana has trended sharply Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 77.2 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 20.2 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.0 points.
A population of 35,785, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,754 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Deer Lodge County and Iowa County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Deer Lodge County
Montana
90.7twin score
2004–2012 trajectoryelasticity≠ median age
Iowa County
Wisconsin
89.0twin score
2008–2020 trajectory≠ median income
Clinton County
New York
87.6twin score
2008–2020 trajectory% Catholic≠ French ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Silver Bow County, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/30093/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Silver Bow County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Silver Bow County, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Silver Bow County, Montana voted Democratic by 7.0 points (D+7.0), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 18,226 votes cast, 9,386 went Democratic and 8,110 went Republican.
When did Silver Bow County, Montana last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Silver Bow County, Montana voted Republican was 1956.
How many people live in Silver Bow County, Montana?
Silver Bow County, Montana has a population of 35,785 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Silver Bow County, Montana?
Median household income in Silver Bow County, Montana is $61,754 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Silver Bow County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Silver Bow County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 29 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.