Akashic2026 forecast
Kansas — U.S. Senate
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
Likely R
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 83% chance to win.
Akashic modelRepublican 83%MarketRepublican 83%agree · 0 pts in line
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Total volume
$37k
Liquidity
$25k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Roger MarshallRIncumbentPresumptive | for | |
| Erik MurrayD | — | |
| Patrick SchmidtD | — | |
| Christy DavisD | — | |
| Adam HamiltonD |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+16.1
2020 result
R+11.4
Seat held by
Republican
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KS state page.
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Kansas
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+11 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+44 |
| 2008 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →