Akashic2026 forecast
Minnesota — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Likely D
83%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
Akashic modelDemocratic 83%MarketDemocratic 94%agree · 10 pts apart
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 10-point gap.
Total volume
$34k
Liquidity
$44k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Apr 29, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Angie CraigD | for against | |
| Peggy FlanaganD | for | |
| Michele TafoyaR | — | |
| Adam SchwarzeR |
The substrate
2024 baseline
D+4.2
2020 result
D+5.2
Seat held by
Democratic
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MN state page.
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Minnesota
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →